Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC has launched a market-leading one year fixed rate special at 4.55%. They have also raised their top cashback limit to $30,000. TSB trimmed their rate card. The Police Credit Union has trimmed rates too. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank trimmed a number of TD and savings rates today. Heretaunga Building Society did too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

UNEXPECTED, BUT WELCOME
StatsNZ data shows retail sales volumes delivered a surprising +0.5% lift for June quarter, up +2.3% from a year ago. Conditions remain tough in the retail sector, but some analysts say this data is a sign of the long-awaited recovery is taking shape.The unexpected rise may also cast some doubt on the Reserve Bank’s forecast that GDP shrank by -0.3% during the quarter.

WESTPAC BREACHES BRING COMCOM ACTION
The Commerce Commission has filed proceedings against Westpac for allegedly breaching New Zealand lender responsibility principles, after multiple failures meant customers did not receive legally required information about their loans and, in some cases, agreed interest rate discounts. The Commission believes Westpac failed to invest in adequate systems and processes to ensure it complied with its CCCFA obligations.

NZX50 STARTS WEEK FIRM
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.5%, regathering some of the OCR cut momentum after Friday’s hesitation. It is now up +1.0% over the past five days and up +0.2% year-to-date. It is now sitting +4.0% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.3% today so far so the overall gains are despite the FPH headwinds. Heartland, Scales, Gentrack, and Chorus lead the gains while Meridian, Napier Port, Investore, and SkyCity casino are the main decliners.

SOME KEY PROFILE UPDATES
More NZX50 companies are reporting, and our profiles for Vector, Chorus, PFI and Tourism Holdings have been updated.

A NEW BANK BOND
ASB is launching a new five year $100 mln bond issue for “general business purposes”, with the ability to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The last time it issued a bond like this was in November 2022 with a four year term. That one raised $650 mln at 5.93% yield. This time the margin indication is “0.77” to 0.80%”. With the current five year swap rate at 3.37%, that means the yield will likely come in at about 4.15%.

MORE GREEN BONDS
Meanwhile, Meridian Energy (MEL, #2) announced plans to issue up to $300 mln of 6.5-year unsecured, unsubordinated fixed-rate Green Bonds.

FROM AIAL TO VONTOBEL
Auckland Council’s “Auckland Future Fund” Board has appointed Swiss manager, Vontobel Asset Management AG as its global investment manager with the responsibility to manage $1.3 bln in funds on behalf of the council. All these funds came from the sale of Auckland Airport shares.

KEY BANK METRICS
The RBNZ Dashboard to June 2025 was released today. We will have analysis over the next few days.

UGLY OUTCOME
It was a ‘poor’ quarter for KiwiSaver funds. The total in these funds rose just $2.5 bln in the quarter, about the same as in 2016. And don’t forget this ‘rise’ is largely due to contributions, not earnings. The IRD collected $2.482 bln from members and paid those contributions to fund managers. Fund managers paid themselves their fees. But after that the net earnings and gains/losses in the quarter only amounted to $51 mln – for all 3.4 mln members. That is an average of just $15/member for the three months in earnings. It’s not just ‘poor’, its terrible.

SWAP RATES SOFT AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be lower by about -3 bps today across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.03% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.39%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and and up +3 bps on Friday to 4.38%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from this morning, now at 4.27%.

EQUITIES FIRMISH
The local equity market is now up +0.3% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.7%. Hong Kong is up +2.1% with a spurt at its open and Shanghai is up +1.3%. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500 will open up a mere +0.1% when it opens tomorrow – but that will probably be enough to claim another record high.

OIL STABLE
The oil price in the US is unchanged at US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just on US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STILL HARD TO KNOW WITH SO FEW TRADES
There have been few trades yet again today, in another dry patch, with the price holding down at $56. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$7 from this morning at US$3363/oz.

NZD STABILE
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this morning, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is holding at at 66.3.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$113,352 and down -0.9% from where we opened this morning. Volatility has been modest at just over +/-1.3%.

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