Health Minister Mark Butler wants to make generational changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), diverting children with autism or developmental delays off the scheme and into a new program dubbed “Thriving Kids”. States and territories may have felt blindsided by the move, announced last week, but Butler expects them to eventually help fund the new program.

In our latest instalment of Paint by Numbers, we present the key figures involved in the massive reform project.

Year the NDIS was legislated: 2013 

Year the NDIS review was released: 2023

Number of people with disabilities that the scheme was originally meant to support: 410,000

Independent. Irreverent. In your inbox

Get the headlines they don’t want you to read. Sign up to Crikey’s free newsletters for fearless reporting, sharp analysis, and a touch of chaos

By continuing, you agree to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.

Approximate number of people it now supports: 740,000

Projected number of people the NDIS will support by 2034: 1,000,000

Annual rate at which the scheme’s costs grew in 2022: 22%

Target that, in 2023, the national cabinet agreed to reduce the annual cost increase of the NDIS down to by 2024: 8%

Forecast cost of the NDIS under that 2023 scenario: $105 billion

Estimated cost of the NDIS in the past financial year: $48.5 billion

Estimated cost of the NDIS in the 2025-26 financial year, according to the March budget: $52.3 billion

Estimated cost in the 2028-29 financial year: up to $63.4 billion

Growth in participant numbers in the past financial year, according to the latest quarterly report: 12%

Proportion of Australians the NDIS serves: 1 in 40

Number of NDIS service providers: 260,000

Number of NDIS service providers that are registered: 16,000

Year the proposed new “Thriving Kids” program would begin rolling out: 2026

Year the program would be fully realised, according to Labor’s plans: 2027

Federal funding pledge states and territories are expected to match: $2 billion

Projected annual rate at which aged care is projected to grow: 5%

Projected annual rate at which Medicare is projected to grow: 5%