Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has moved its fixed rates down to match Westpac and BNZ/ China Construction Bank has cut rates too, including their floating rate. Coop Bank and WBS cut rates too. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Coop Bank and China Construction Bank cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FINALLY GOING THE RIGHT WAY
First home buyers have benefited considerably from falling house prices and interest rates over the last few years, and affordability for this group is now the best it has been for 4 years.

RATE CUT DOESN’T REALLY IMPROVE BUSINESS SENTIMENT
The ANZ business sentiment survey reported confidence lifted 2 points in August to a net 50% expecting better business conditions, while expected own activity fell 2 points to a net 39%. Past own activity fell 5 points to +1, while past employment rose 1 point to -12. There were some interesting, isolated lifts in the data in the late-month sample following the RBNZ cut, but no generalised confidence improvement evident. Inflation indicators fell: the net percent of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months fell 1 point to 43% and those expecting cost increases fell 2 points to 74%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 2.6%.

A TURN FOR THE BETTER?
Latest figures suggest the jobs market may have turned for the better. The monthly filled jobs data shows a rise for the second consecutive month – the first time in nearly two years there’s been two consecutive gains.

STILL TRENDING LOWER
In 2024, there were 18,033 marriages and civil unions nationally. This was -4% fewer than in 2023 (18,744) and -14% fewer than in the 1990s (an average of 20,950 marriages per year).

TRENDING LOWER TOO
In the short three year history of the RBNZ’s cash use survey, the use of ‘cash’ to pay for everyday things has fallen to 40% of the people surveyed, the lowest level yet.

NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was unchanged. But it is now down -2.5% over the past five days and down -1.6% the same year-to-date. However it is now sitting +3.1% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% today so far. Hallensteins, Gentrack, a2 Milk and Channel Infrastructure have all risen while EBOS, Investore, Kathmandu and Ryman are the drag, resulting in the NZX50 being flat.

NEW UPDATES
Another group of NZX50 profiles are now updated, reflecting their full year-end results reporting today. That includes Meridian, EBOS, Precinct and AirNZ.

IMPROVING I
SOE Pāmu/Landcorp reported an after-tax profit of $120 mln for the year ended June 2025. But this includes fair value gains on animals and forestry of $96 mln. Net operating profit was $49 mln, and they are indicating a range for the 2025/26 year of between $69 mln and $79 mln. Pāmu has total assets of about $2.3 bln. That includes land it holds for the Crown involved in Treaty negotiations. (ROA = 5.2%)

IMPROVING II
Auckland Council also reported its annual financial results to June 2025 today as well. The delivered a net profit of $1 bln (actually $999,451,000) for the year after paying $58 mln in tax (5.5%). They have total assets of about $79.7 bln. Being a public monopoly, they ‘enjoyed’ revenue growth of +11%. But their release doesn’t really talk to that. They focused on how much they have grown their “investment in the region’s future”. (ROA = 1.2%).

NEW RATING
Fitch Ratings has assigned Waimakariri District Council a first-time Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘AA’ with a Stable Outlook.

RENEWED
The People’s Bank of China and the RBNZ have renewed the reciprocal currency arrangement (swap line) to support the settlement of cross border transactions between New Zealand and Chinese businesses. The size of the swap facility is ¥25 bln (NZ$6 bln), and it has a five-year maturity which renewable. The arrangement was first agreed in 2011 and was previously renewed in 2014, 2017 and 2020.

IMPROVING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
In Australia, new private capital expenditure rose less than expected, by only +0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, falling well short of the expected +0.7% expansion. Year on year it is up +1.7%, hindered by weak investment in plant & equipment.

NVIDIA WEIGHS ON US EQUITY MARKETS
US stock futures slipped after Nvidia declined about -3% in extended after-hours trading despite beating second-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts, as data center sales once again came in below expectations. The chipmaker also revealed that it recorded no sales of its H20 chips to China during the quarter and excluded any potential shipments from its guidance. Nvidia is building a record of lower gains at each reporting event and investors are doubting the AI boom will last. In addition, CrowdStrike fell after it reported too.

SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a little softer today across the curve, more so at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.02% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.35%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -1 bp at 4.37% at the end of Wednesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.23%.

EQUITIES FIRMING LOCALLY
The local equity market is now firming in late Thursday trade, up +0.5%. The ASX200 is unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.5%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% but Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.2% on the S&P500, but looks weaker on after-hours trade.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is little-changed at US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just on US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE RECOVERS
There have been a few more trades with the price rising back to $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD A LITTLE FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6 from yesterday at US$3389/oz.

NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.4.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,479 and up +0.3% from yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/-1.0%.

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