Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has moved its fixed rates down to match Westpac, BNZ and ANZ. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut its RapidSave rate by -20 bps to 2.55%. And Sharesies cut their call account by -25 bps to 2.10%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A SIGNIFICANT HOUSEHOLD COST
The average NZ household now pays $5000 for insurance – $6000 if you have two cars, says Quashed.

NOT SO HAPPY
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell three points in August, to its lowest level in 10 months, in a worrying sign for retailers.

47% SURGE
Low equity mortgage lending surged to first home buyers and is now at record levels

FHB’s ACTIVE USERS OF KIWISAVER FOR HOUSE-BUYING DEPOSITS
And that is confirmed by IRD KiwiSaver data. Early KiwiSaver withdrawals hit new monthly record high in July. They topped $234.8 mln in July with 9390 withdrawals made for first homes and financial hardship. The growth in FHB withdrawals drove the increase. The withdrawals for hardship has remained relatively stable for the past ten months

NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2. But it is now down -1.0% over the past five days and also down -1.0% year-to-date. However it is now up +4.7% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is again down -0.5% today so far. Kathmandu, Summerset, Gentrack, and Port of Tauranga post gains but Serko, Briscoes, Vulcan Steel, and Air NZ all slip

MEDIA STRUGGLES I
TVNZ said it had revenue of $281 mln in its last financial year to June 2025, a decrease of -2.7%. It reported underlying operational earnings (EBIT) of $4.9 mln and an adjusted Net Profit After Tax of $10.7 million, at the top end of guidance provided at the FY25 interim results. In a clue to its challenges, it said it has a goal “to double TVNZ+’s 18-54 audience”.

THE GROWTH IS IN LENDING FOR HOUSING
The value of housing loans were up +4.9% in July from a year ago, the fastest rise since October 2022. Business loans rose +1.1%, but agricultural loan values fell -0.7% on the same basis.

MORE CASH ASSETS, SPREAD EVENLY
Household bank account balances rose +$2.1 bln in July from June and the increases were well distributed across the various types of accounts. Transaction account balances rose +$800 mln, savings account balances were up +$530 mln, and term deposit balances were up +$750 mln. (No-one is suggesting this growth is spread evenly among household demographics however.)

KOREANS STILL SHOPPING
South Korea’s retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.

AND INDUSTRY GROWS SOLIDLY
South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.

FALLING BACK
After a good gain un June, Japan’s industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a 2.1% the June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.

SURPRISE STUTTER
Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.

BORROWING FASTER THAN GDP GROWTH
The value of lending in Australia rose +7.2% in July from a year ago, the fastest pace of increase since February 2023 when it was recovering from the sharp 2022 retreats during the pandemic..

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.02% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.37%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -3 bps at 4.34% at the end of Thursday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.21%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMISH
The local equity market is now firming in late Friday trade, up +0.3%. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is up +0.8% but Shanghai is down -0.l%. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.3% on the S&P500 and a new record high.

OIL UP IN THE US, HOLDS ELSEWHERE
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc at US$64/bbl but the international Brent price is unchanged at US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have a handful of trades with the price holding at $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3409/oz.

NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.6 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,599 and up +0.1% from yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/-0.9%.

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