Ah, the dawn of a new season, when every team is destined to go 17-0 because each has 53 guys who are in the best shape of their lives and a dozen prospective Pro Bowlers.
Yes, optimism springs eternal this time of year, but we all know the NFL season is full of surprises that will inevitably blindside us as we watch the year unfold.
Before that happens, The Athletic conducted its annual poll of coaches and executives around the NFL to get their thoughts on the upcoming season. We asked them to predict which teams are on the upswing and which are on the downturn, along with which players are in line to snag some hardware at the end of it all.
This year, we had 31 voters on the panel. All voters were granted anonymity to speak freely. And some voters chose to skip certain questions, so there are categories with fewer than 31 votes.
We have a lot to dive into, so let’s get it going.
Burrow left a mark last season as he nearly led the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs after a dreadful start due to a porous defense. Burrow led the NFL with 460 completions, 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns. His 70.6 completion percentage was a career best, and he threw interceptions on just 1.4 percent of his passes, his best mark since his 10-game rookie season.
Burrow just delivered the best training camp of his career, quietly guiding the Bengals into a highly anticipated season while staving off the summer injury bug that’s hit him in previous years. That’s why the voters believe Burrow will overtake Allen for the award.
Teams smell blood in the water with Mahomes, as the Chiefs’ offense has fallen off a cliff over the past two seasons, and they weren’t competitive in a Super Bowl loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Mahomes garnered 18 of 26 votes on this question a year ago, and he was the only player who got more than two votes.
While it appears Mahomes has welcomed Allen, Burrow and Jackson into his elite QB tier, one voter raised a fair point.
“Mahomes is just so talented, and he keeps doing it with different groups of players,” an executive said. “They keep turning over their skill players.”
Jackson was a first-team All-Pro last season and nearly corralled his third MVP award.
“It’s hard to go away from the uniqueness of Lamar Jackson and the things he does in their offense,” a head coach said. “It’s the dual threat that makes them so fun and unique.”
Another Jackson voter put it simply: “Best player on the best roster.”
(Note: Voters were asked to consider age and contracts.)
This was fun because it forced voters to narrow down their team-building priorities. It wasn’t necessarily as simple as finding the three best quarterbacks and moving on from there, as the flurry of votes for the 2024 class would show.
Mahomes earned 25 of 27 votes on this question last year, with Allen finishing fourth with 10 votes, so the reigning MVP flipped the tally accordingly.
Daniels’ popularity was also noteworthy after his extraordinary rookie season. However, it’s worth noting Stroud was in a similar boat in last year’s survey, finishing second with 16 votes before crashing back to earth. Daniels has plenty to prove.
“I need to see more from Jayden Daniels,” one of his voters said, “but that dude is a f—ing freak.”
Fair enough.
Another standout absence: Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft tied Lamar Jackson with five votes last year but didn’t record any this time. Maye and Nix leapfrogged him, as did Ward, the most recent top selection.
Of the dozen quarterbacks who received votes, five are on rookie contracts, while Mayfield also represents great value with a mid-tier pact.
“(Maye has) every physical trait you’d want (plus) the competitiveness,” a Maye voter said. “He got better over the course of the year. It’s probably too early to put him on that list, but if you’re going young and counting the contracts, I’d take him.”
A coach added, “Mayfield gives you so much out of that contract.”
Chase led the NFL last season with 127 catches, 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns for the rare triple crown, and he cruised to victory in this category. He only got one out of 26 votes last year on this question, while Barkley was shut out.
“Chase can score literally every time he touches the ball,” a head coach said.
Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 yards from scrimmage to go along with 15 touchdowns in 2024. While he was running behind one of the best lines in the league, it’s hard to discount Barkley’s production.
“They don’t win the Super Bowl without him,” an executive said.
A surprise consideration? Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers nearly earned a vote before the executive flipped to Chase.
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson also drew consideration.
“Bijan is approaching this category,” an executive said.
Garrett ran away with this category for the second consecutive year, even strengthening his perch after drawing 13 of 26 votes in 2024. What’s more, the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year slipped to third in that voting last season, but he still stood out this summer in voters’ minds.
“Your whole game plan is centered around one guy,” a head coach said. “It’s a f—ing (nightmare).”
This was all about the pass rushers. Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, was held out of the voting.
“Surtain is the best corner in the league,” a coach said. “But you can throw away from him. You have to game plan for the pass rushers. You have to know where they are, hit them, chip them, double them. They take up so much of your time.”
Garrett tallied 14 sacks for the second season in a row, and he led the NFL with 22 tackles for loss. He has 102.5 career sacks since 2017 — second to Watt’s 108 — including seven consecutive seasons with double digits.
The Green Bay Packers stumbled upon the fourth player on the list, acquiring Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys last week in a shocking blockbuster trade.
“I think he’s the best defensive player in the league, and he just got traded,” an executive said.
There was some positional variety with this question as opposed to last year when quarterbacks monopolized the vote. Then again, Bears QB Caleb Williams ran away with the tally in 2024, so it’s safe to say there were some surprises to follow.
It’s fair to wonder if Hunter would have drawn more attention if the Jaguars had telegraphed their plan for the two-way star. But as it stood, with the likelihood Hunter will primarily play on offense with some rotational work on defense, he finished second.
Carter’s win wasn’t surprising, though. He was frequently viewed as the best player in the draft class, and there’s an obvious gravitational pull toward pass rushers.
“He’ll have the most opportunities to contribute in terms of playing time, and he’s got a talented line around him that’ll free him up to make plays,” an executive said.
Carter, the No. 3 pick, will help the Giants create pressure with Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux around him.
Ward did reasonably well with three votes, especially considering the expectations for the Tennessee Titans aren’t high.
With the NFL’s recent swing toward young, brilliant offensive minds, it was time to add this question to the rotation. The results were fairly predictable with McVay and Shanahan at the top, but it was interesting to get a feel for the way the league views many of their understudies.
It would have been interesting to see how Reid would have fared a year ago, before the Chiefs’ recent offensive regression. They went from averaging 493 points per season from 2018-22 to 378 points over the past two.
Johnson got a ton of love for his work in Detroit, so the voters are evidently predicting carryover to his head coaching role with the Bears.
O’Connell staved off Coen in the battle among McVay proteges, which is understandable due to O’Connell’s more extensive track record. LaFleur came in surprisingly low on the list despite leading the Packers to excellent results with both Jordan Love and Malik Willis at quarterback last season.
McDaniels, who took a year off in 2024, did pretty well as voters believe the Patriots should be markedly better this season.
Now, this was the most fun question of the poll, simply because defensive play callers don’t get nearly as much recognition as their offensive brethren.
Fangio dominated the ballot after leading an Eagles turnaround in his first season on the job in Philly. They went from allowing the third-most points in the NFL in 2023 to the second-fewest under Fangio, a football lifer with an old-school edge.
“He knows what levers to pull, knowing the nuances, what adjustments to make,” the head coach said. “That’s the secret. They all have a playbook. He knows the specific adjustments that will make a difference.”
Flores continued to draw rave reviews for his unique ability to disguise looks, deploy defenders in a variety of ways and simply put offenses through the ringer.
“He’s a pain in the ass to go against,” another head coach said.
Don’t be the least bit surprised if Macdonald flies up the list next year. And looking into the future, Hafley, Minter and Weaver drew support as deserving head coaching candidates.
The Cardinals have been at the top of this list two years in a row, with teams fully believing in general manager Monti Ossenfort’s methodical approach and coach Jonathan Gannon’s system — along with his talented staff.
The Patriots and Raiders, who hired accomplished head coaches this offseason, are on the verge of bouncing back. We’ll see if either is capable of making a playoff push, but they should both be more competitive.
“(The Patriots) will be super well-coached, and the division is wide open,” an executive said.
That’s what makes these final two questions so tricky. They’re subjective, with some voters eying Vegas’ win projections, others going off general feel and the rest stacking up teams to their 2024 results.
Consider a Bucs voter for example: “I don’t know how you can be underrated every year,” an executive laughed, “but they’ll win 10-11 games again.”
This was a jarring result, as the Lions drew more votes than any team ever has for this question. There’s usually so much parity in the results of this question because of its subjective nature.
But the Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching jobs.
“It’s hard to lose two coordinators,” a general manager said.
Another executive wanted to balance out the thought.
“They’ll still be good even with all the turnover,” the voter said. “They still all have the same identity as the head coach. And they’ll continue to play good defense.”
The Commanders were another surprise, but rival voters wondered if they’d fall back to earth after catching lightning in a bottle with Jayden Daniels’ incredible rookie season. And even though the Commanders strengthened the depth of their roster with solid veterans, some voters worried how that would impact an aging roster.
Back to the subjectivity of it all, one voter picked the Texans for this category even though that voter believes Houston will get back to the playoffs.
“They’ll win the division,” the executive said, “but they’re not Super Bowl contenders.”
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos of Sean McVay, Joe Burrow and Abdul Carter: Harry How, Rich Graessle, Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images