Ceiling: 9.3Floor: 5.2FanDuel over/under: 7.5
Yikes. This projected win total surprised even me, and I wrote my models. The good news is, Tua Tagovailoa and the offensive scheme are well-suited to weather any bumps that come as the offensive line transitions to its post-Terron Armstead reality, given how quickly Tua gets the ball out (his 2.42-second average time to throw ranked as the fastest in the NFL in 2024). We should expect to see more this season from Tyreek Hill, especially on plays where he is moving at the time the ball is snapped; since joining the Dolphins in 2022, he’s racked up 797 yards on such plays, the most in the NFL in that span.
The bad news is, outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick, there is a lot of uncertainty factoring into their projection from the secondary. Miami, faced with serious attrition in this position group, has only just added players (like Rasul Douglas) who figure to log a heavy workload. It’s hard to live like that in the AFC.