Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s ‘Daily Ramblings’.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Grant Campbell, and Dobber
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The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide is available for download! Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more!
The French-language version of the Guide can be purchased here.
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1. Over the last couple of Ramblings, I have been going over some of my own preseason projections, going team by team and offering one player per team. The first Ramblings covered Anaheim through Colorado and the second was Detroit through New Jersey. Today, we are moving to the third batch of teams, and that’s Nashville through Seattle.
For anyone new here: Rookies haven’t been added yet, all players are projected for 82 games played, and there are going to be some tweaks made for age-related progression or decline. All data used for the projections come from Evolving Hockey, AllThreeZones, or Frozen Tools.
*** For projections covering the entire league, as well as team-by-team reviews, and a bunch of analysis articles covering sleepers, stock drops, a schedule breakdown, and a whole lot more, go grab a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! ***
Nashville Predators
Rather than look at the veterans, this projection from Luke Evangelista gives us a nice glimpse into his potential future:
That shows his first career 20-goal season, his first career 40-point season, and doing that with under 10 power-play points expected. Given the veteran names ahead of him, his being stuck largely on the second power-play unit is going to keep his upside tempered, but if any of the top players get hurt, or grossly underperform, Evangelista is in line for a crack at the top PP unit, and then we’re in business.
In general, the projections show a modest rebound for most Nashville forwards given how bad things were in 2024-25. Evangelista’s sticks out because once age adjustments are done, he’ll probably have the highest point projection for any Nashville forward not expected on the top PP unit. If he can ever get those top minutes, this is a potential 25-goal, 55-point player right now. (aug29)
2. New York Islanders
Last week, I wrote about some early ADP placements and one player named was Mathew Barzal because his ADP had dropped so far from 2024-25.
Over the last three years, Barzal has averaged 21 goals and 53 assists every 82 games. Here is his 82-game projection for 2025-26:
The power-play projection seems lofty, but if he can hit even 20 power-play points, his overall point projection is still in the mid-70s. If he can be a 20-goal, 50-assist, 20 PPP, 225-shot guy, that is still valuable for where his ADP is, even in multi-cat leagues where he won’t help much as much (though he has averaged 57 blocks and 58 hits per 82 games over the last two years, and that’s something).
Looking into why the projection is where it is, improvements from Maxim Tsyplakov and Simon Holmstrom, a healthy blue line (even without Noah Dobson), and a full year from Tony DeAngelo, who is still a horror show defensively but is very good offensively, all factored in. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone who thinks the Islanders will be pretty bad or Barzal’s ability to stay on the ice is problematic. But if he can play 80 games, I think fantasy managers will be happy with what he gives them. (aug29)
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3. Below are two of the players Mike covered in Thursday’s Ramblings, Thomas Harley and Lucas Raymond:
Dallas Stars
Let’s start with Thomas Harley, a guy who has shown nothing but elite upside since the moment he stepped into the NHL:
Despite the modest power-play production – the model is assuming he splits power-play time with Miro Heiskanen – Harley’s 82-game projection is for 61 points. It has him inside the top 10 defencemen in both even-strength goals and even-strength assists. On the back of that elite performance at even strength, the overall projection pushes him to the 60-point mark for the first time in his career.
This might seem lofty but over the last two seasons, Evolving Hockey has Harley as the top defenceman in the league by both even strength offence and goals-for impact, and the tracking data has him as a tremendous defenceman in transition. The 2024-25 season saw a rise in his shot volume at even strength and Dallas should again be one of the top offensive teams in the league. If Harley posts something close to what this projection shows, he’s a top-10 fantasy defenceman. (aug28)
4. Detroit Red Wings
Let’s check in on a player I’ve done a complete 180-degree turn on over the last two years in Detroit’s Lucas Raymond:
This shows Raymond pacing for close to 85 points in 82 games, giving him the first point-per-game season of his career. It really isn’t all that much different from his 2024-25 season, adding a goal and a few assists, but the key here is that even with a projection of 34 power-play points, that is a downturn from 2024-25 (he had 37). It takes him from about 46% of his production from the power play, which is very high for a forward, to about 40%, which is a lot more reasonable. The reason is that Detroit turned around their even-strength offence under new coach Todd McLellan, and the idea is that the turnaround under McLellan carries over in 2025-26. With a better team at even strength, Raymond looks primed for his best offensive season to date despite a small decline from the power play.
This can go very wrong if the Detroit offence reverts to what it was before McLellan arrived, so etching this in stone is too much faith, but Raymond certainly looks like the next winger to join the point-per-game club. (aug28)
[Follow the link for more players from Thursday’s Ramblings…]
5. And below are two from Tuesday’s Ramblings, Leo Carlsson and Connor Bedard.
Anaheim Ducks
This projection for Leo Carlsson was very interesting to me:
I was expecting a bigger jump in his production, but two problems came up, and that’s ice time and the Anaheim power play. As for ice time, Carlsson averaged 16:14 per game in 2024-25. While the Ducks have a new coach, they still have Mason McTavish as a similarly young and improving player while Ryan Strome is a veteran hand. They also brought in Mikael Granlund who has been a centre for most of his career. How much centre Granlund plays is uncertain, but there is competition for prime minutes. These projections have Carlsson adding about a minute per game (most of it at even strength) but not taking a huge leap in TOI.
Then there is the power play. Anaheim’s has been bad for years, and when the even-strength scoring took off last year after the Four Nations break, the power play remained the worst in the league by goals per minute. And without any true superstars (yet), there is enough talent to split across two PP units, which is a problem. If Carlsson can get a lot of PPTOI on a good top PP unit, he’s a 60-point player. If Anaheim’s power play is only a bit better, or more of the same, rather than a big improvement, then 60 points would be Carlsson’s upside. (aug26)
6. Chicago Blackhawks
Oh boy… here is Connor Bedard:
Bedard has averaged 25 goals, 45 assists, and 219 shots every 82 games for his career. The projection here represents a jump in goal scoring by 43%, assist total by 12%, and shots by 6%. The assists and shots… fine. The goal projection is a tough one to swallow.
Here is what happened. My projections are partly based on similar players from prior seasons. Bedard is in the top-third of the league’s forwards by shot volume in his two seasons. He also has a below-average shooting percentage. In my data, teenage forwards with high shot volume and low shooting percentages see a sizeable increase in their shooting percentage in Year 3. That would make Bedard roughly a 12.6% shooter in 2025-26. My projections also think the Chicago blue line will be a lot better in 2025-26 than in 2024-25, and the additional puck-moving skills from the back end will elevate even-strength goal totals. Put it all together and we get Bedard’s 36-goal projection.
Even knowing all that, a 43% jump is a lot. If he can be a 30-goal, 50-assist guy, that will be a great year. I haven’t done all-around values yet, but my assumption is that if Bedard can be drafted anywhere around or after the 50th pick in a draft, I’d be pretty tempted to do it. (aug26)
[Follow the link for more players from Tuesday…]
7. With Marco Rossi now re-signed in Minnesota, only a few remaining RFAs have yet to be signed for the coming season. Since we’re nearing September with training camp less than a month away, let’s bring up the fantasy-relevant RFAs and what their potential absences could mean from a fantasy perspective.
McTavish is arguably the most prominent name here, as he led all players on this list with 52 points in 2024-25. That total was good for second on the Ducks, as was his 40 even-strength points. At age 22, McTavish fits in perfectly with Anaheim’s rebuild plan, and he is already projected to center one of the top two lines. Without McTavish, Ryan Strome would likely grab a spot in the top 6.
Yet for some reason, McTavish and the Ducks have not come to terms on an extension. His name seems to come up often in trade rumors, yet the price to get a young second-line center from a team is high enough for teams to eventually walk away from a deal. The Ducks are also carrying just over $20 million in cap space with only McTavish to sign, so fitting him in for this season won’t be a problem. The salary cap could become an issue next season, however, as Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe, Pavel Mintyukov, and Olen Zellweger are all set to become RFAs.
I would assume that McTavish is signed before training camp, but the above situation might be a reason it is taking longer than expected and why it just doesn’t “get done.” (aug30)
8. Luke Hughes
One of the burning questions surrounding the Devils will be whether Hughes or Dougie Hamilton will be on the top power play. Hamilton could be back in that spot again even though Hughes seems like the better option with a much higher PP IPP (84.2%) than Hamilton (41.7%). Contract could be the reason for that. Although Hughes is set to earn a big raise from his sub-$1 million entry-level contract, he won’t likely hit the $9 million cap hit that Hamilton is receiving.
The latest on this situation has the Devils looking for either a bridge deal of around three years or the max eight years, with Hughes looking for five years to match with brother Jack Hughes (NJ.com). Coming to terms on term is one hurdle, but maybe not the only one.
The Devils have less cap room to play with ($6.13 million) than the aforementioned Ducks, which makes signing Hughes a tighter squeeze. Fellow defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic isn’t expected to be ready for opening night due to a knee injury, so there’s a chance the Devils could move his $4 million cap hit onto LTIR. The Devils may even need to make a minor roster move or two to make room for Hughes. Beyond Hughes, they also have to think about captain Nico Hischier, whose contract expires in two years.
New Jersey might have its eye on reuniting all three Hughes brothers one day, especially with Quinn Hughes‘ contract expiring in two years. However, the Devils need to worry about the present first, which involves locking up Luke Hughes. Ondrej Palat and Brenden Dillon, among others, are projected to come off the books in two seasons, which could help facilitate the move.
Should Hughes miss any time during the season, Simon Nemec would instantly become a player to watch. Kovacevic’s injury should be another reason that Nemec makes the opening-night roster. (aug30)
9. Connor Zary
In two NHL seasons, Zary has scored at a 40-45-point pace, which could lead to bigger and better things down the road. However, the nearly 24-year-old Zary is now a Band-Aid Boy Trainee, having missed 28 games in 2024-25 due to various injuries. Zary is versatile enough to play at both center and on the wing, a fact that is not missed by Yahoo in that he is eligible at all three forward positions.
The Flames have $15 million in cap space with a mix of younger and older players, so fitting Zary in doesn’t seem to be an issue. In addition, it sounds like Rasmus Andersson will be dealt sooner rather than later, which would free up an additional $4.5 million depending on what Calgary receives in return. The Flames may simply want to view a larger sample size before committing to Zary long term.
From the Fantasy Guide, “Zary missed time on a couple of occasions and that benefitted Yegor Sharangovich the most. Sharang-a-tang had 20 points in 27 games that Zary missed. He had 12 points in 46 games when Zary was in the lineup.” Both Zary and Sharangovich are listed as left wingers in the Fantasy Guide, so Sharangovich might be one player to target if Zary ends up holding out. (aug30)
10. Luke Evangelista
Evangelista’s second full NHL season was very similar to his first: A scoring pace slightly below 0.5 PTS/GP and an average of about two shots per game. One stat that did not work out in his favor was his time spent on the power play, which dropped from 40% in 2023-24 to 29% last season. The free agent signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault probably had something to do with that, as Evangelista had even been a borderline PP1 option for the Preds right before their 2024 offseason splash.
Prior to the offseason that saw them sign Stamkos, Marchessault, and Brady Skjei, the Predators seemed to operate on a tight budget. They currently have just under $10 million to play with, which is more than enough to sign Evangelista. The Preds have a bunch of expiring contracts at the end of the season, but no big names among the group (Michael Bunting is probably the most prominent). GM Barry Trotz has stated that he would like to sign Evangelista to a longer term than the player wants, which is what could be holding this up.
If Evangelista’s contract situation drags into the season, former first-round picks Matthew Wood or Joakim Kemell could not only crack the Predators’ opening-night roster, but they could also play a prominent role. Both were up for a cup of coffee last season and could play more NHL games this coming season.
The other currently unsigned RFAs: Alexander Holtz, Rasmus Kupari, Wyatt Kaiser, and Donovan Sebrango. (aug30)
11. Checking the news Thursday morning, I saw that the Carolina Hurricanes signed defenceman Oliver Kylington to a professional tryout (as well as forward Givani Smith). Kylington played just 19 games between Colorado and Anaheim last season, totaling five points. He sustained an upper-body injury at the end of November and did not return until early February.
Kylington has only had one season where he’s played at least 50 games, and it was 2021-22 when he had 31 points in 73 games with Calgary. He missed the entire 2022-23 season due to a personal matter, returning in January of 2024. Since May of 2022, he has played just 52 games.
The Kylington signing is interesting for two reasons.
The first reason is that he had a solid start to his career. From 2019-2022, which finished with his age-24 season, he was second on Calgary’s blue line in 5-on-5 goal share (55.9%) and expected goal share (53.8%). Of all Calgary defencemen to play at least 100 games in those three seasons, those numbers exceeded those of Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, and Mark Giordano. His 0.96 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 led the team’s blue line, exceeding those names plus Chris Tanev. There was very good reason to believe he’d be at least a long-term second-pair option in the NHL, and a future 40-point fantasy defenceman.
Then Kylington missed a season and a half with the personal issue (in an interview with Sportsnet, he makes it clear it was a mental health issue, but what caused that hasn’t been made public), and he hasn’t been the player he was since his return. He just turned 28 years old in May, so it’s not as if there’s a significant age-related decline coming.
Even if he does regain his form, having fantasy relevance is another matter. Even with a big rebound, he’s not going to be ahead of K’Andre Miller and Jaccob Slavin on the even-strength depth chart, or Shanye Gostisbehere on the power play. At best, he’ll be a third-pair option if all goes well, but if he can be the guy he was, he gives the Hurricanes a guy who can anchor the third pair, and that helps everyone else on the roster. (aug28)
12. Finally having gotten around to participating in my first Yahoo mock draft of the year, I wanted to talk about three players whose initial rankings stood out to me, and why I think I’ll end up with a few shares of them this year:
Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson
Yes, I’m already cheating and getting two for one here, but I am lumping these two together for a good reason. Last year both these players were drafted a fair bit earlier than their current ranks of 39 and 42 respectively. Each had a fairly decent season, but we have seen more from them both, and what you’re getting at around the 40th pick is closer to the floor for Dahlin and Thompson than their ceiling. What I mean by that, is that Dahlin and Thompson would have to have very uninspiring seasons to not be worth picks around 40th overall (especially Dahlin being a defenseman). As a result, I will likely have them each ranked within the 20-30 range on my board. In the DobberHockey forum mock draft, Dahlin went at pick 18, which seems about right, while Thompson slipped all the way to 64th! (aug27)
With Sergachev locked in as the defenceman on the top unit for Utah’s power play, there’s the potential here for 35+ PPPs next year from the 27-year-old. Last season he notched 23 PPPs, but with a PPIPP of only 49% (that means Sergachev notched a point on 49% of power play goals that Utah scored while he was on the ice). The last five years in Tampa, Sergachev’s PPIPP percentage ranged from 63 to 77%, which is a remarkably consistent range. If he can jump up over 70% again, then that alone would bring him into the range of a 35 PPP season. Along with that, add some growth from the young Mammoth team, and top the wonderful scoring numbers off with some excellent peripherals, and you have the makings of a top-five fantasy defenseman. This lines up with Cliffy’s data that was pointing to Sergachev as one of the best bets to make that jump into the upper echelon as well. In the DobberHockey Forum mock draft, Sergachev was selected at pick #85, and was the 15th defenceman off the board. (aug27)
14. Elias Pettersson
Last year, I won a few leagues on the back of some big scoring wingers picked around and after slot #100, including Lucas Raymond, Martin Necas, Nikolaj Ehlers, and others. This year, we already have a former 100-point scorer who is still not even 27-years old, who is going in that range. Other players in this range would have to have a fantastic season just to get to 80 points, let alone 90 or 100. I’ll take the risk when the downside is a 60-point season, and name-value in a trade that I could move for more anytime he’s on a hot streak. In the DobberHockey Forum mock draft, Pettersson was selected at pick #54, which might be the upper end of his range, but is still a reasonable spot. If you can get him 25-40 picks later then it will likely be a steal this season. (aug27)
15. I traded for Mike Matheson in my Salary Cap dynasty league recently, and while the move was largely a swap of similar defencemen for me with the goal of saving a few dollars, it got me wondering exactly what we’re going to see from Matheson this year.
My take on the defense situation in Montreal is that Lane Hutson is going to be running the top power play unit, with Noah Dobson the main anchor on the blueline who also mops up any extra time on PP2. Maybe Matheson pairs with Dobson on the second unit, or maybe that one runs with four forwards as well. Regardless, it’s going to be a step down in power play time and production for Matheson in Montreal this season.
The “in Montreal” part is the tricky bit to predict though, as a trade is very possible for the pending UFA. Not a lot of teams have a need for an offensive LHD, especially this early in the season, but there are always struggles or injuries that open doors to potential trades, so if Matheson is dealt, I think it happens mid-season. (aug27)
16. Matheson has paced for a wide range of even strength production with the Canadiens, playing between a 22-point and 49-point pace at even strength over the last three years. Assuming we average that out and expect little-to-no power play production, then we end up with about a 35-point pace for Matheson. That seems about right for this year on a Montreal team that looks to be on the rise but will probably still be on the playoff bubble. If/when Matheson is moved to another team, then he could end up anywhere from a 30 to a 60-point pace, which has been his overall range the last few years.
As I said above, the fits for someone of Matheson’s profile are limited, though the Florida Panthers might be able to make it work as soon as Matthew Tkachuk goes on LTIR. Maybe the Lightning could be a fit at mid-season, when they’ve accrued some cap space, or maybe Utah decides that Matheson would be an upgrade over their five bottom-pairing-level players that they have to compete for their L2 slot. (aug27)
17. Sticking with Florida, and having Tkachuk shifted to LTIR, the news of him undergoing surgery came out a day after the Panthers signed Luke Kunin. To me, the two are very obviously related, with Kunin being brought in to help fill out the forward ranks while Tkachuk is injured. The Panthers already had 12 healthy forwards, but they likely don’t want to promise more than bottom-line minutes to any of A.J. Greer, Tomas Nosek, Jesper Boqvist, or Jonah Gadjovich. This means that there’s a very real chance that Kunin starts the season as a top-nine player, which is a great spot to be on the Panthers.
I profiled Kunin as part of my Remaining Free Agents to Watch section in the Fantasy Guide, and here’s what I had to say about him there:
“When searching for multi-category fliers to take late, don’t gloss over Kunin as a fringe player. He’s someone that can play as high as a middle-six role, but is likely better suited for a third-line spot, as he hasn’t developed the soft touch on offence that some were hoping for. What he has brought in recent years is a constantly growing hits-per-game rate, along with solid numbers in blocks, PIMs, and shots. He’s still only 27, and can play on the power play, penalty kill, or at centre as well. His heavier style should see him land a one-way deal, and after stops in San Jose and Columbus, hopefully it’s somewhere that won’t tank his plus-minus again this year too.”
Indeed, Kunin has landed somewhere that won’t tank his plus-minus stat, and he could turn into an excellent multi-category player this year (a lite version of Mathieu Olivier, but with less PIMs, and a few more shots). He’s someone I’ll be looking at as a late-round flier in the right type of league. (aug27)
18. Fantasy Guide Sleeper Picks Update
I made my sleeper picks for the Western Conference that were included in Dobber’s 2025-26 Fantasy Guide. It was a few weeks back, so I thought I’d look at the players again and see if there are any regrets about including them. I also want to highlight some of the players whom I will double down on.
Andre Burakovsky – Chicago
Burakovsky had a stretch between 2019-20 and 2022-23 where he put up between 0.76 and 0.83 points per game. He has dipped to 0.33 and 0.47 the past two years with Seattle. He has a chance to get some meaningful minutes on a young Chicago team in 2025-26. I’m looking for him to return near that range that he had before. Otherwise, he’ll find himself back in the SHL sooner than later.
Filip Chytil – Vancouver
Chytil needs to avoid injuries in 2025-26, after 106 games over the past three years. Easier said than done. He has a career-high of 22 goals and 23 assists in 74 games during 2022-23 and if he can come close to that output, it will be a very successful campaign for him and the Canucks. (aug25)
19. Sean Durzi – Utah
Durzi missed 52 games in 2024-25 and managed 11 points in 30 games. He is unlikely to get his quarterback position back on the first unit of the power play from Mikhail Sergachev, but he could certainly compete for the role if that unit struggles out of the gate. Durzi has had two seasons of 38 and 41 points and can get back there if healthy.
Philipp Kurashev – San Jose
Kurashev produced 18 goals and 54 points (0.72 PTS/GP) in 75 games with Chicago in 2023-24. He has never produced higher than 0.36 points per game in any other season. While I don’t think he can reach 54 points as it was surely an anomaly, I think he could reach 0.5 PTS/GP and get 35-45 points in San Jose. (aug25)
20. Kaapo Kakko – Seattle
Kakko had a career-high of 44 points in 79 games split between the NY Rangers and Seattle in 2024-25. Does he have a higher level of production in 2025-26 with Seattle? Yes and no. He’s going to be hard-pressed to score more than 20 goals, by shooting just 1.5 times per game on goal but he did show that he can pass the puck by setting a career-high of 30 assists last year. If everything clicks for Kakko, I think he can put up 20 goals and 40 assists, but that might be his ceiling in the NHL.
Kaedan Korczak – Vegas
There is no guarantee that Korczak is a regular in the lineup for Vegas in 2025-26, but the injury to Alex Pietrangelo won’t hurt his chances. He’s played 77 career games in the NHL with Vegas and has one goal, 20 assists, 127 hits and 80 blocks. He’s never played more than 40 games in a season before, but if he can reach 70, he should put up similar numbers to his career ones. (aug25)
21. Finding out who the leading scorers were last season is very easy and shouldn’t require any guidance. But what about filling your other league categories? For that, you can go to Frozen Tools and in the Player Stats category, select More Stats, then find the Multicategory button under Peripheral. There you can sort under the various multicategories, as well as find a combined number for hits/blocks, shots/hits/blocks, and the ultimate bangers total of penalty minutes/hits/blocks.
Let’s find you some specialists for the typical multicategory league that counts shots, hits, and blocks, as well as some bangers who rack up the penalty minutes, hits, and blocks. I’ve omitted top 100 roto players such as Brady Tkachuk, Moritz Seider, Mackenzie Weegar, and Vincent Trocheck from the list, as they’ll already be drafted in most leagues. It’s worth mentioning that for all four of these players, their multicategory league value exceeds their pure scoring league value.
SHOTS/HITS/BLOCKS
Sherwood isn’t here because he had a particularly high shot or blocked shot total. However, he was the runaway leader in hits with 462 in 2024-25, setting a league record since the stat was first recorded. Divide that total by the number of games he played, and he averaged nearly six hits per game. Impressive. That stat in itself was enough for Sherwood to be rostered in many leagues, but the fact that he set career highs with 19 goals and 40 points should not be overlooked.
Now what will Sherwood do for an encore? It has to be difficult to put your body through that kind of torture. An injury could diminish that hit total substantially. Sherwood is already 30, but he has only been a full-time NHL player for two seasons. He has only reached 200 hits one other time in his career, which was the season before in Nashville. He is still worth drafting in the later rounds in deeper leagues, although don’t bet on him reaching his 2024-25 hit total again. (aug24)
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Have a good week, folks!
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