Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has now moved its fixed rates down to match the big Aussie-owned banks. First Credit Union trimmed too.  All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank also trimmed some of its key TD rates today, as did First Credit Union. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A BETTER MORTGAGE OFFER ASSESSMENT TOOL
We have launched a new home loan comparison calculator that allows you to compare the impact on the rate you are offered, after costs you be liable for, and after the benefits of any cashbacks, across multiple offers. It is here. It’s been surprisingly well used on its first day. H/T to ComCom for challenging us to build it.

BOTTOMING OUT?
Residential building slump appears to have bottomed out in 12 months to July, with fewer townhouses/home units being built and more apartments. Non-residential consents tracked sideways in July.

BETTER QUALITY OF LENDING?
Non-performing housing loans had their biggest drop in nearly five years in July. Latest Reserve Bank figures show that they dropped by -$55 million in July, the biggest monthly fall since late 2020 when the brief pandemic spike was unwinding.

VIRTUALLY NO CONSRUCTION COST INFLATION
Continuing the recent trend, construction costs have stabilised for both residential and non-residential buildings. Average residential construction costs increased by just 1.2% in 12 months to August according to QV Costbuilder.

TURNING POINT?
One week of data change could mean nothing – or it could signal we may have reached a turning point. For what it is worth, our tracking of commercial premises for lease on the realestate.co.nz portal shows a rare dip in volume. Auckland (which makes up 60% of all these listings) would have shown a good dip if it wasn’t limited by the small rise in the Manukau quadrant of the city. Everywhere else inched back too, so the effect was widespread – except for Wellington and Tauranga which still have more property for lease listed, both at yearly high levels in 2025.

WE ARE BACK BUYING NEW CARS LIKE IT IS 2022
New car sales in August were quite good at 8088 units, +20% higher than in August 2024. But used imports were down -8.5% at 7479 for the month. New EV sales were quite weak however at just 384 in August, the lowest month since May 2024. Hybrid sales are where its at, continuing to command more than 50% of all new car sales.

SERIOUS MISCONDUCT
One of our largest domestic airlines, Jetstar, has been fined $2.25 million after misleading consumers about their rights to compensation when flights were delayed or cancelled for reasons within its control, breaching the Fair Trading Act. The regulator, the Commerce Commission, says it is disappointing that an airline promoting itself as ‘low cost’ has acted in a way that resulted in thousands of consumers being left out of pocket after their claims were unfairly denied, especially when people often had to spend extra on last minute flights and accommodation. To apply for compensation, go here.

NZX50 FIRM
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.6% in a positive start to the week. But it is still down -0.6% over the past working five days and also down -0.5% year-to-date. However it is now up +3.5% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is again down -0.4% today so far, extending its weak run. EBOS, Kathmandu, Mercury, and Tourism Holdings advance, with Gentrack, Vista Group, Investore, and Napier Port leading the declines.

CONSOLIDATION SURGE
The dairy processing industry is consolidating fast around four power players. Fonterra obviously dominates. Chinese-owned Yili has two operations. Talleys, through their Open Country Dairy business, today acquired a second dairy processor in two weeks, taking over Mataura Valley Milk, and now Miraka. And a2 Milk is pushing ahead with its own strategies.

BUILDING CONSENTS FALL IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren’t houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).

AUSSIE FACTORIES GAIN MOMENTUM
Australia’s factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.

FACTORY CONDITIONS IMPROVE MOST IN FIVE MONTHS
In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor – RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.

THE IMPROVEMENT IS BROAD
While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren’t killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American’s are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn’t flagging. Yet, anyway.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve, perhaps marginally firmer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.01% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.40%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +1 bp at 4.35% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from Friday, now at 4.24%.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED W/O WALL STREET
The local equity market is now firming in Monday trade, up +0.5%. The ASX200 however is down 0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down a sharp -2.0%. Hong Kong however is up +2.1% with Shanghai up +0.4%. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. Wall Street is on holiday, ending last week off its record high. So far, the after hours futures market isn’t changing much.

OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is now just under US$64/bbl and the international Brent price is under US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades and the price is still at $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD AT ALL TIME HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$28 from this morning at US$3475/oz. That makes it a new record high.

NZD FIRMS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just on 66.5 and little-changed from this morning

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,637 and down -1.2% from this morning’s open. Volatility has been low at just under +/-0.9%.

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