The Australian and New Zealand dollars took a breather on Tuesday after four straight sessions of gains, while data pointed to modest economic growth at home and the need for further policy easing.
The Aussie eased 0.2% to $0.6540 AUDUSD, surrendering half the gains made overnight. Resistance lies at $0.6569 and the July top of $0.6625, with support at $0.6462.
The kiwi dollar lapsed back to $0.5887 NZDUSD, after edging as high as $0.5914 overnight. It faces resistance at $0.5942 and $0.5996, with support at $0.5819.
In Australia, figures showed net exports added a slim 0.1 percentage point to gross domestic product in the second quarter, while government spending contributed nothing at all.
The full GDP report is due on Wednesday and forecasts favour a rise of around 0.5% in the June quarter, with household consumption finally showing some life after a long fallow stretch.
“Anecdotes from the company reporting season have made us a little cautious on the consumer, but we do expect the consumer recovery to be a key component of an overall private sector pickup,” said Robert Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
“Higher real incomes from tax cuts, lower inflation and interest rate relief, should boost spending even if residual caution & elevated saving behaviour continues.”
Investors doubt the Reserve Bank of Australia will ease again at its meeting on September 30, preferring to wait until November when data for third-quarter consumer prices will have been released. (0#AUDIRPR)
The partial CPI for July surprised on the high side, but most analysts assume inflation for the full quarter will show core inflation subdued enough to allow for another cut.
In New Zealand, data showed export volumes fell sharply in the June quarter while import volumes surged, suggested trade took a chunk out of GDP. Past consumer spending on imports was also revised down.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has turned even more dovish, seeing a need for policy to be out right stimulative given the amount of slack in the local economy.
Analysts expect two more cuts to take rates to 2.50%, the lowest since mid-2022. As a result, two-year swap rates (NZDSM3NB2Y=) hit their lowest since early 2022 at 2.8100%, having fallen 25 basis points last month. (0#NZDIRPR)