Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has trimmed its six month fixed rate down to ANZ’s leading level. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank has trimmed almost all its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

‘ADJUST YOUR PRICE EXPECTATIONS DOWN’
Barfoot & Thompson’s sales dipped slightly in August from July but are similar to the last two years. Meanwhile, stock levels remain unusually high extending the buyers market. Auckland’s largest realtor says vendors holding out for prices to lift are missing out.

TRADE WITH CHINA & THE US GENERATES OUR LARGEST SURPLUSES
StatsNZ reported on our international trade for the June quarter that includes both goods and services today (Their monthly updates only relate to “merchandise trade” = goods.) This June quarter review shows that of the top ten countries we had a goods surplus with six of them, dominated by China. For services, we ran good surpluses with China and (surprisingly) the USA, but deficits with Australia and the EU. In fact the EU is the region where we run serious deficits for both goods and services. But our largest deficits are now with Singapore – essentially because that is where we buy the replacement Marsden Point refinery fossil fuels from.

MUCH BETTER TERMS OF TRADE
Our merchandise terms of trade rose +4.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June, rising faster from a +1.9% increase in the first quarter and beating market forecasts of another +1.9%. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which edged up +0.2%, against a sharper -3.7% fall in import prices, partly driven by lower fuel and consumer goods costs.

AGILE BANKS LEAVE FINTECHS FLOUNDERING
The Commerce Commission is accusing the main banks of ‘delaying’ open banking. They say the major banks are ‘locking in’ their market power and hindering fintechs by adopting the open banking benefits themselves and leaving little advantage for others. They particularly point to BNZ’s Payap which has broad appeal and has been rolled our with speed, leaving little room for followers, and little reason for customers to wait for the followers.

NZX50 FIRM AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in a positive Tuesday session. And it is up +1.2% over the past working five days. It also up +0.4% year-to-date, the first time in a long time this comparison has been positive. And it is now up +4.5% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged today so far. Oceania Healthcare, Goodman, and Heartland support index gains; The NZX, Vulcan Steel, Channel, and SKY are the big decliners.

LOSING FAVOUR
The Coalition government has been doing poorly in the recent political polls, and the trend is not improving. The latest is from RoyMorgan and that indicates they would lose if the election were held today. That is the first independent poll to show them behind the opposition. In this one, it is a switch between National and Labour, rather than shifts to the minor parties. Labour up at National’s expense. Hurting most is that a bigger majority think New Zealand is going in the wrong direction.

AFFORDABILITY BARRIER CLOSE
In Australia, Cotality/Corelogic reported that they saw a rise in house prices in August ahead of the usual ‘spring upswing’. But they don’t see it as frothy as in prior upswings because affordability issues are starting to bite a lot harder at these near record-high levels.

MARKETS CHOOSE PRECIOUS METALS OVER CRYPTOS
The gold and silver prices are on the move up to either record highs or in silver’s case, decade highs. Driving these prices are concerns about US risks and stability and a growing awareness of the Trump public policy disasters unfolding. Interestingly, cryptos now respond more to gambling frenzies or are sidelined. They are not acting as a risk absorber in the way precious metals continue to do.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve, perhaps marginally firmer again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.00% on Monday. The last time this rate was at 3% was in July 2022. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +4 bps at 4.44%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +2 bps at 4.37% at the end of Monday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bps from yesterday, now at 4.25%.

EQUITIES VERY MIXED, STILL W/O WALL STREET
The local equity market is still firming in Tuesday trade, up another +0.3%. The ASX200 however is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%. Hong Kong however is down -0.1% with Shanghai down -0.7%. Singapore has opened up +0.3%. Wall Street is still on holiday after ending last week off its record high. So far, all indications from the futures market are that the S&P500 will open tomorrow little-changed.

OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is now just under US$65/bbl and up +US$1 and the international Brent price is under US$68.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been very few trades again today but the price is is down -$1 at $56. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD AT ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3495/oz and a new record high.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.9USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.3 and down nearly -20 bps.

BITCOIN STOPS FALLING
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,942 and up +2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.

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