Folks who have been reading The Athletic through the summer may have noticed I’ve published a few leaguewide mailbags over the past several weeks, taking reader questions about all sorts of teams and various CBA and salary cap issues. If you were waiting for a Leafs-specific one, however, you’re in luck.
Incredibly, 2025-26 will be my 18th season writing about the Toronto Maple Leafs and 10th here with The Athletic. While my role has at times strayed to be more of a national one, I’ve always got a close eye on Toronto and the goings-on here at home, and this season certainly is shaping up to be an interesting one.
For Round 1 of the ‘bag, here are your burning questions on Max Domi’s role, new ownership under Rogers, Anthony Stolarz’s UFA value, Mats Sundin, how the Leafs should approach the (potentially) loaded 2026 free agency class and more.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
A lot of you had similar asks, which I’ll group together here at the top:
Does it not make sense for the Leafs to step carefully with trades etc this year, save up their cap space for next year’s UFA class? – Richard S.
With all of the cap space, do you see the Leafs as waiting for Connor McDavid? Or for taking a swing for a young star like Elias Pettersson? – John H.
Right now, the 2026 UFA class certainly looks appetizing. We all know, however, that many of those top stars are going to sign eight-year extensions with their teams, even if McDavid’s cryptic comments last week at the Hockey Canada avail add some fuel to the speculative fire.
So that’s one reason not to put all your eggs in the “wait until next year” basket. There just might not be much left in the basket by July 1, 2026.
But there are two other important factors that I think are even bigger arguments for not making any kind of a punt on 2025-26.
1. The Leafs really don’t have to sit this year out in terms of additions. With the cap going up to $104 million in 2026-27, the Leafs are projected to have $24 million in wiggle room already a year from now. That’s with close to a full roster: 10 forwards, six defencemen and Joseph Woll signed in goal.
Yeah, they’ll need to replace (or extend) Stolarz, but that’s their only UFA of note next summer (unless you count Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann). They will be able to sign a superstar talent in 2026 to a $15 million-plus contract even if they do add more salary this season.
And that’s before they even look at shedding a David Kämpf-like contract, which could happen in the next few weeks anyway.
2. This core is older. There’s not a lot coming. You’ve heard this before. But what it means is the Leafs aren’t in a great position to wait for anyone, even McDavid. I know a lot of people are down on this team — among our readers, they were the second most popular choice for team in the East most likely to take a step back — but Toronto had 108 points last year and GM Brad Treliving has attempted to replace Mitch Marner with better depth up front.
The rest of the roster is largely unchanged, with two solid netminders, a couple game-breakers up front, and several strong defencemen on the back end. It’s not a hopeless situation for this coming season, even if they are worse than a year ago entering camp.
Crucially, the Leafs also have the financial flexibility to make additional moves in-season. Florida added two of its biggest pieces — Brad Marchand and Seth Jones — late last year; that’s going to need to be part of the plan in Toronto, assuming they’re again in solid playoff position by the Olympics.
Auston Matthews has only three years left on his deal, so he’s not all that far away from being in the McDavid position where he’s asking himself if this roster has what it takes to win a championship. I think it’s vitally important they have a strong 2025-26 to convince not only him but also those 2026 UFAs that Toronto is a place they can potentially win.
Improving this season and next offseason should both be priorities, and I don’t think one precludes the other from happening. After all, if one of those top stars hits free agency next July 1 and is interested in coming to Toronto, they’re going to be able to move out whatever money they have to to make it happen anyway. So get aggressive, make deals and spend this year, even if cap hits spill into next season.
With the cap rising drastically and with Rogers making cuts to MLSE, do you think we will get to a point where ownership will start using internal caps instead of spending to the limit? — James P.
I can’t see it, no. The Leafs are the highest revenue team in the NHL, pulling in north of $300 million (U.S.) a year, in a league where the average team is making a little more than half that. They have a huge advantage over most organizations and are clearing a huge profit margin, even if the cap is $120 million or whatever.
Where it seems like there may be trimming is outside of the cap sheet. A few staffers were let go, quietly, in the summer — including Rich Rotenberg, Rob Pettapiece, Leanne Henderson and John Rosasco — and there’s been talk of more cutting with the various other MLSE teams. Former president Brendan Shanahan’s salary (and that of his staff) certainly wasn’t insignificant, and that’s off the books, too.
The debate, I think, for Toronto: How big is too big for the front office? Is having a GM and five or six AGM lieutenants too many cooks or does it give you an advantage over smaller-market clubs? Do you need the biggest development, scouting and analytics staffs in the league? (Do the Leafs have the best development, scouting and analytics in the league as a result?) And are there eventually new budget pressures at some point with how the ownership group is shifting from a three-headed monster to the Ed Rogers show?
New CEO Keith Pelley is going to make his mark with the Leafs in a big way in the next couple years, and that will obviously involve some financial decisions, but I’d be shocked if those ever reached the point where it affected their ability to spend to the cap. With their financial largesse, this is one team that should always be at the max.
Speaking of the max…
Max Domi’s position in the Leafs lineup next season is somewhat murky. (Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
Why do people think Max Domi is overpaid? Can we get some salary comparisons to show realistically what a $3 million forward actually is? It seems like he gets overly criticized because his name brings higher expectations. — John L.
Domi’s on a $3.75 million cap hit for another three seasons. For this coming year, that’s the 170th highest cap hit for a forward, tying him with Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner.
So, on average, that’s the fringe of top-six money, as most teams are only going to have five or six forwards making that much.
Domi isn’t a crippling cap problem. They have other contracts they’d like to dump more than his, but with only eight goals and 33 points last year, he’s also not living up to that AAV right now. (It does look better as the cap shifts upwards, though, and his clutch play in the playoffs helps.)
Part of the problem is Craig Berube doesn’t seem to want to play him in the top six. Domi averaged 14 minutes a game last season, but his most frequent linemates were Bobby McMann, Max Pacioretty and Pontus Holmberg, and the Leafs really didn’t get much offence with those configurations.
Does that change this season, with the additions they’ve made up front? I don’t see Domi as a great fit with Matthews and Matthew Knies given his defensive limitations, but I believe he’ll at least get a look there in camp. If Nic Roy is taking over the 3C role, that takes away a spot Domi played in a lot last year and potentially turns it into more of a defensive-focused line, so putting him on the wing doesn’t feel great either.
So if a top-line audition doesn’t work, is there a sheltered fourth-line role that makes sense for Domi? And how does he earn his cap hit there?
The fit just feels a bit awkward with this coach and on this roster, especially without a lot of power-play opportunity. They’re not a rush team, and he’s not a hard-forechecking cycle player. Maybe he gets more of a look on special teams and with good players this season and that value proposition changes, but without it, yes, he’s a little overpaid. (Our projections for him late last season had his value around $2.4 million, for what it’s worth.)
A lot of the Leafs’ success replacing Marner this season hinges on getting more from the non-star forwards, and Domi is a part of that mix with the three newcomers. It does feel like he has more to give, offensively anyway.
Assuming he has a similar season to the one he just had (very good but some injuries then same in playoffs) what sort of contract could Stolarz be looking at next offseason? — Pete E.
Should the Leafs extend Stolarz, and if so, at what AAV and term? — Michael H.
Stolarz is a really tough player to find comparables for. He’s 31 years old, and he’s started just 116 regular-season games in the NHL. That’s the profile of a journeyman backup who should bounce around on a low-level salary … except his numbers have been spectacular. Last season was a breakout with a career-high 33 starts and a .926 save percentage, but he has been putting up some of the league’s best numbers for a while.
Over the past five years, Stolarz has saved 61.3 goals above expected, which ranks seventh in the NHL, ahead of a lot of established No. 1s. Among the 64 goalies with at least 75 games played in that span, Stolarz is first in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes played, just edging out Connor Hellebuyck.
But he’s missed a lot of time with injuries over the years, going back to his early days in the league. And the reality is part of what you pay a starting goalie for is to carry the load and play a lot of games.
There are two scenarios here for him. If Stolarz stays healthy all season, plays 50-odd games and is as good as he’s been, he’s in line for a big payday. If he’s hurt a lot again but still plays well, that limits how much teams are going to pay him.
I’ve been really surprised how high goalie contracts have been around the league lately. The reality is there aren’t enough good goalies to go around, so you’re seeing average ones paid a lot. The contracts for goalies like Kevin Lankinen, Karel Vejmelka and Logan Thompson stand out given their relatively short track records and solid performance.
With a big season, I think Stolarz can get into that $5 million-plus range pretty easily. With one like last year, he’s still going to be clearing $4 million, likely with some term. At the lower number, he makes sense for Toronto given they’re only paying Woll $3.67 million, but part of the equation is going to be the season the younger goalie has. If Woll grabs the reins and looks like a No. 1, there’s less urgency to keep Stolarz.
This is a tricky one to navigate, and I would be surprised if it’s a situation where they can get an extension done early given the variables. Stolarz could be looking at becoming a very rich fellow if he has a big year, especially with the cap going up and so many teams needing help in the crease, so my guess is his camp opts to wait things out.
But I’m a big believer in his ability and fit in this market. I don’t think it would be the worst move to try and keep him around, at the right price.
Mats Sundin skates in the Hall of Fame Legends Classic Game in 2014. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
How good was Mats Sundin? I know he was one step below Joe Sakic and Steve Yzerman but was he a top-10 player in the league? And who would be his best comparable playing now? — Philip M.
Sundin was very, very good. When we did our comprehensive ranking of the best 100 players in modern NHL history, he ended up slotting in 61st, compared to 13th for Sakic and 15th for Yzerman.
The centres in the same ballpark as Sundin? Mike Modano, Doug Gilmour, Adam Oates, Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron. Paul Pidutti has Sundin as the 44th best forward ever, ahead of Ron Francis, Pavel Datsyuk and Pavel Bure, and just behind Bryan Trottier, Marian Hossa and Jarome Iginla.
As a lot of Leafs fans of a certain vintage know, part of the issue for Sundin is he didn’t always have the greatest supporting cast. There were a lot of years with Hoglunds, Modins and Ponikarovskys on his wing, and it was revealing how he elevated when a late-career Alex Mogilny landed on his line.
Among active players, I think fair comparisons could be players like Anze Kopitar or Aleksander Barkov: big centres who had an impact at both ends and were excellent in leadership roles. Sundin is likely just ahead of those two, depending on how much weight you place on international and playoff success.
Sundin only had one year where he was voted top 10 for the Hart, but he was a second team All-Star twice, which is tough to do at centre. I think it’s fair to say there were seasons where he was in the tail end of the NHL’s top 10 group, but he wouldn’t be near the top 10 for the duration of his career given the competition.
It’s been good to see him around the organization a bit more lately.
Does it make sense to trade Brandon Carlo? They gave up quite a bit to get him. — Anonymous U.
A lot of talking heads are mentioning Carlo as a trade chip for the Leafs but doesn’t that just create another hole that they’ve already filled? Is the management team actually looking at that, or is that just speculation? — Taylor R.
Yeah, I admit — back in June, I was one of those heads that talked about this! My understanding was that Carlo would have only been moved if there was an opportunity to get a real difference-making, top-six winger back. There were rumblings he could have been part of a deal for JJ Peterka, giving the Buffalo Sabres the big right-shot D they were looking for (which they ultimately received from Utah in Michael Kesselring). There would have been more pieces in that deal, but that’s the kind of move that might have made sense for Toronto.
The front office is still looking for that upgrade up front. I don’t expect Matias Maccelli, Roy and Dakota Joshua to be it for forward adds, especially considering at least two of them should be in the bottom six. And the biggest reasons Carlo could go the other way: Toronto doesn’t have a lot else to trade and a huge RD has a lot of value for other teams.
The other thing is the Leafs have six pretty solid established NHL D right now in Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Morgan Rielly, Carlo, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit. They’d like to somehow get another puck mover back there, which would mean moving one of the more defensive types out.
Part of the reason they got hemmed in against the Panthers in the playoffs was their inability to handle Florida’s forecheck, and that comes back to the Leafs’ struggles breaking out, moving the puck and maintaining pressure in the offensive zone. Treliving and Berube have to solve that somehow, or they’ll just be hoping to get luckier next spring.
Thank you for reading — it’s good to be back typing about the Leafs again. I look forward to taking on more of your questions here as we get ready for training camp over the next few weeks. We should have the podcast ramped up fairly soon, too.
(Top photo of Anthony Stolarz: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)