This weekend (Sat., Sept. 6, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Accor Arena in Paris, France for UFC Paris. After a visit to Shanghai and then rare week off, the biggest promotion in MMA returns with a top-notch “Fight Night” event. In the main event, Caio Borralho vs. Nassourdine Imavov could determine the next Middleweight title challenger at a time when 185-pounds has never been hotter. One bout prior, local hero Benoit Saint-Denis will take on rising knockout artist Mauricio Ruffy in a must-watch Lightweight affair. The rest of the main card is quality too, so we’ll be getting a full afternoon of great scraps.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
Lightweight: Mason Jones (-142) vs. Bolaji Oki (+120)
Best Win for Jones? David Onama For Oki? Michael Aswell
Current Streak: Jones recently returned to the UFC and rides a five-fight win streak, whereas Oki won his last bout
X-Factor: Jones is there to be hit
How these two match up: This should be a fun scrap for however long it lasts.
Jones puts his opponents through the wood chipper. He’s nonstop offense and pressure, but there’s definite craft in how he picks his targets and builds his combinations. An underrated wrestler and grappler as well, Jones is pretty comfortable wherever the fight goes. Oki, conversely, still feels like an excellent athlete learning on the job. He definitely has some dangerous hands and natural power, and he capitalizes on those traits by pushing a pretty hard pace himself.
The dynamic here is pretty clear in my opinion: Oki has to knock out — or at least consistently hurt — Jones to win. He’s the faster, more powerful man, but Jones is otherwise better everywhere and works at the higher pace. If Oki can’t crack his chin, then Jones will take over and only gain momentum as the fight wears on.
Unfortunately for “The Zulu Warrior,” Jones has a hell of a chin. He can shrug off a big shot or two without getting deterred, and he’s the more likely party to land a takedown as well.
Prediction: Jones via decision
MONTREAL, QUEBEC – MAY 10: (R-L) Modestas Bukauskas of Lithuania elbows Ion Cutelaba of Moldova in a light heavyweight bout during the UFC 315 event at Bell Centre on May 10, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Light Heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas (-340) vs. Paul Craig (+270)
Best Win for Bukauskas? Ion Cutelaba For Craig? Magomed Ankalaev
Current Streak: Bukauskas has won three straight, whereas Craig has lost three in a row (plus a “No Contest”)
X-Factor: Craig is incredibly good with his comeback submissions
How these two match up: Paul Craig fights are so fun to predict.
“Bearjew” is a wild card of the highest order, the Light Heavyweight Michael Johnson capable of defeating champions and getting knocked out by scrubs. His combination of top-tier jiu-jitsu and terrible wrestling remains unchanged after many years on the roster, and his kickboxing effectiveness remains entirely based on his confidence level of that particular evening.
Bukauskas, meanwhile, has come a long way from his first UFC stint, which ended in 2021 on a trio of losses. Since returning to the Octagon two years later, Bukauskas has won five of six largely on the strength of his kickboxing. He looks like a completely different fighter!
Bukauskas is not an overwhelming athlete, so I don’t expect him to instantly blow Craig out of the water as some have in the past. However, he also seems to be a smart, composed fighter. He should be able to avoid those few situations where Craig is so intensely dangerous, and there’s not much else to Craig’s game. At 37 years of age, I’m not sure Craig has many miracles left. let alone against a fighter who won’t willingly dive into his guard.
It might be slow at the start, but Bukauskas picks him apart and eventually finds the finish.
Prediction: Bukauskas via knockout
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – FEBRUARY 01: (L-R) Fares Ziam of France punches Mike Davis in a lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at anb Arena on February 01, 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Lightweight: Fares Ziam (-360) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+285)
Best Win for Ziam? Mike Davis For Fernandes? Guram Kutateladze
Current Streak: Ziam has won five straight, whereas Fernandes has won two in a row
X-Factor: Ziam has France in his corner
How these two match up: I don’t understand the matchmaking here.
What does Fares Ziam have to do to get a ranked opponent? Frevola was one fight removed from his Top 15 slot when Ziam nearly killed him in one of 2024’s best knockouts, and then he styled on the highly touted Mike Davis earlier this year. The 28-year-old Frenchman has clearly come into his own athletically, allowing him to capitalize on all those technical skills. Fernandes may not deserve this match up necessarily, but the Brazilian has looked sharp in his trio of UFC bouts. A Nova Uniao product, Fernandes is a classic Muay Thai striker who’s also willing to mix in the occasional takedown attempt.
Fernandes looks like a worthy UFC Lightweight, and I expect him to have a successful career overall, but what are his advantages here? Ziam is younger, longer, and sharper. He’s precise but hard to hit. Fernandes could try to out-do him with volume, but Ziam is sitting down on his punches more effectively lately, so he should be able to time counters that back Fernandes off.
I’m expecting a competitive and technical fight, but Ziam separates himself to take a clear-cut decision.
Prediction: Ziam via decision
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JULY 19: Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire of Brazil punches Dan Ige in a featherweight bout during the UFC 318 event at Smoothie King Center on July 19, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Featherweight: Patricio Pitbull (+160) vs. Losene Keita (-192)
Best Win for Pitbull? Michael Chandler For Keita? Predrag Bogdanović
Current Streak: Pitbull rebounded last time out, while Keita debuts having won five straight
X-Factor: It’s a big step up in competition for Keita
How these two match up: It’s so nice to see UFC go out of their way to headhunt a top international talent.
Keita is a two-division Oktagon champion and should have no problem adjusting to the Paris’ crowds, seeing as he’s already headlined massive stadiums in the Czech Republic. An athletic and flashy striker with a penchant for quick finishes, the 27-year-old “Black Panther” is poised to show off his star potential in his official Octagon (with a “c”) debut.
Pitbull knows a thing or two about being a two-division champion. The Brazilian great didn’t join the UFC until well after his physical prime, but he still reminded fight fans of his skill set with a clear victory over Dan Ige last time out. A sharp counter puncher with real thud behind his shots, Pitbull is also a longtime black belt with strong transitional wrestling.
This feels like a bit of a trap fight for Keita, as Pitbull possesses the accurate counter striking to punish his aggressive offense. Pitbull is also likely the best wrestler/grappler Keita has faced, which could cause problems as well. As Ige found out, Pitbull is smart enough to use his skills to capture a couple rounds then ride away with a victory.
Keita ain’t Ige though. He’s in a higher class of explosiveness and potential. He very much looks the part of a future title threat, and I’m willing to bet Keita survives a couple difficult moments in order to get his offense flowing.
Once that happens, the snowball is only going to gain speed.
Prediction: Keita via decision
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 42-23
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MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Sat., Sept. 6, 2025, with a must-watch title eliminator. In the main event, top-ranked contender Nassourdine Imavov faces unbeaten rising star, Caio Borralho, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Paris’ co-headliner, all-action Lightweight standouts Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy square off, both aiming to climb closer to the 155-pound title picture. All that and SO MUCH MORE — don’t miss a single second of face-punching action.
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