As we approach the end of the NRL 2025 season, the race for the men’s Dally M Medal is harder to call than ever. While the Roosters’ Isabelle Kelly looks to be running away with it in the women’s competition, the men’s is super hotly contested.

In a season where the Raiders could claim their first title since 1994 but also have six teams hot on their heels, all within 10 points of them, the Dally M is equally up in the air. The uniquely awarded medal (more on that later), which crowns the league’s player of the year, is likely to go to either the Roosters’ Tedesco or Wests Tigers’ Terrell May. There are outsiders like Payne Haas, as well, that I could still see stealing the show. So, who is most likely to come out on top after the 26th round of voting?

How Does the Dally M Scoring Work?

The Dally M Medal scoring system is designed to avoid bias and reward consistency, but can be a little confusing at first, so stick with me.

After each match, two independent judges award a score that goes towards the Dally M leaderboard. They look out for the player who had the biggest impact on the match and award them three points, the second best gets two points, and the third best performer receives one point. Starting this year, if a player is suspended, they’re docked six points per game they miss out on.

How Many Rounds of Scoring Is There?

Throughout the season, there are 26 rounds of scoring, reflecting the 26 games each team plays. Now, here’s one of the most unique features of the Dally M: the scores for the first 12 rounds are made public, so we can see who is leading the way until around the end of May. After that, things go ‘silent’ and judging is done behind closed doors, helping to build up anticipation towards the award.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that although there is only one Dally M winner, since 2020, the NRL also chooses a full team worth of players who are the top in their position.

1. James Tedesco (Roosters)

After absolutely playing out of his skin this season, the Roosters’ fullback James Tedesco is in pole position to claim the medal. He was already looking strong when voting when silent at the end of May, just three points adrift of Metcalf at the top. Since then, I’ve found him to be one of the league’s most impressive players.

Tedesco was a key component in the crushing win over the Dolphins on August 9, which saw the Roosters fly to a 64-12 victory. Tedesco was plucky (see what I did there?) in all areas, and was without a doubt the top of the flock after scoring two tries, assisting four and contributing to another. Of the incredible 11 tries, Tedesco played a direct part in seven of them , helping lead the Roosters past the Dolphins.

Why Is Tedesco Such a Strong Contender?

When it comes to the Dally M, it’s hard for me to overlook the Rooster’s captain because of just how consistently excellent he’s been this season. He’s not just been a strong try scorer, scooping up nine this season, he’s played a vital role in some of the Rooster’s best performances. His assists currently sit at 16 and his line breaks at 18. Even on defense, Tedesco has been rock solid, making 71 tackles with a 76.3% efficiency.

2. Terrell May (Wests Tigers)

I think the Wests Tigers’ prop, Terrell May, could push Tedesco all the way for this season’s Dally M Medal. When voting went silent, the powerful player sat in fourth place, just four points behind the leader, but since then, he’s led the way across championship stats, especially defensively.

If you’ve had May in your fantasy league team – firstly, well done – secondly, you’ll also know he’s been the league’s top scorer scooping up 1,530 points. He’s also led the way when it comes to offloads with 59 and hit-ups with 365. May finds himself in second place for tackles with 890 and runs with 416. If those aren’t quite mind-blowing enough for you, he’s also maintained a 97.8% efficiency rate over those tackles.

Could the Tigers’ Terrell May Take It?

Although I’ve got Tedesco at the top of my list, I could just as easily see Terrell May winning the Dally M Medal this year. He’s one of, if not the league’s strongest and hardest-working players, and his stats show just that. May’s peers have been equally impressed, and even picked him as April’s player of the month.

3. Payne Haas (Broncos)

Although I think the Medal is more than likely to go to either May or Tedesco, Haas has been putting in some incredible performances recently. Terrell May might lead the way in terms of fantasy points, but Haas actually has the best average (currently 73.2 compared to May’s 72.9); he’s certainly giving the others a run for their money.

The Broncos prop has similarly stunning stats to May and boasts an even more unreal 98.4% tackle efficiency, although across a lower 617 tackles. He’s third when it comes to offloads with 54, fourth when it comes to tackle breaks with 104, and fourth with 279 hit-ups. Haas is another of the league’s hardest workers, covering an incredible 167 metres on average each match.

Does Haas Really Have a Chance to Win the Dally M?

I do have to get a bit realistic about this for a second and remind you that Haas has missed quite a few games this season. He was absent for rounds 18,19 and 20, due to lower back problems, ankle complaints, and quad injuries. Although when he’s played, he’s been unbelievably good – Haas was already eight points off the lead after round 12 – his average might not be enough to get him over the line. However, I still don’t feel I can quite rule him out.

Honorable Mention – Luke Metcalf (Warriors)

If you saw the scoring after the round of 12, you might be scratching your head, wondering why the leader, Luke Metcalf, doesn’t appear on my list. It’s a fair question after the talented Warrior’s halfback was sitting top of the leaderboard with 31 points at the end of May. However, Metcalf hasn’t played since he suffered a season-ending injury at the end of June.

The favorite to win the Dally M – and one of the most crucial players for the Warriors – was ruled out of the rest for the season after suffering a horrific injury against the Brisbane Broncos. In the second half, Metcalf tore his ACL in his right knee after a crunching tackle from Brendan Pikura. He had to be helped off the pitch, echoing the injury that the Warriors co-captain Mitch Barnett suffered just a month before.

How Have the Warriors Been Doing Since?

It’s been a rough ride for the Warriors in terms of injuries this season. At the start of the year, they’d won seven of their nine games and were sitting in second place. I had them pegged as strong contenders to win their first championship, and thought Metcalf was also a top challenger for best player of the season.

Since Metcalf’s injury, things have been a real challenge (the Broncos went on to win that match 26-12). At the time of writing, they’ve lost three of their last four games and slipped down to eight points behind the league leader, the Raiders. Metcalf is also out of contention for the Dally M, leaving things wide open.

Who Could I See Claiming the Dally M?

I think this season is looking like a bit of a two-horse race as we enter the final scoring rounds for the Dally M Medal. It looks set to be a tight competition between the Roosters’ James Tedesco and the Wests Tigers’ Terrell May, with both playing at their very best since scoring went silent at the end of May. While May tips it when it comes to fantasy points, we know they don’t always line up with scoring from the judges, making it tough to call.

There are outsiders still in the running as well, including Broncos prop Payne Haas, but it’s hard to look past my list’s top two. Haas’, as well as Luke Metcalf’s, chances have been hampered by a season plagued with injuries, and I’m just not sure anyone else could make it over the line.

The Dolphins’ Isaiya Katoa could have a slim chance, but like Payne, he was trailing by eight points after the round of 12, and he hasn’t been quite as prolific. I can only be certain that this year’s Dally M Medal looks to be one of the closest to call.

Lucius Boehm is an expert sports writer with over a decade in the industry under his belt.  A very keen player himself – who graduated from the University of Auckland with a Degree in Sport, Health and Physical Education – he provides valuable insight to readers around the world.