WOW! Offseason? What offseason?
Phew! That flew by quickly. Week 1 is here & OH BABY, fantasy football is back.
The 2025 season kicks off with a ton of intrigue. Can Caleb Williams & Ben Johnson bring winning football back to Chicago? Will the Denver Broncos take another step toward becoming a legit Super Bowl contender? Does Matthew Stafford and his back have enough left to take the NFC West again?
We are about to find out the answers to these questions & more in the next 18 weeks, & I can’t wait. While plenty of details have changed in the offseason, the goal remains the same. To win Fantasy Football championships!
Ok. Ok. I won’t keep you any longer. Let’s break down the first fantasy football slate of the year.
Welcome to the Week 1 Primer. Enjoy.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
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Fantasy Football Primer
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Yes, I know it sounds crazy, but toss Dak Prescott‘s 2024 abbreviated resume in the trash. Last year, the Dallas offense was a dumpster fire as defenses aimed at taking away CeeDee Lamb, and Dallas didn’t have a counterpunch or run game earlier on. The only thing I will bring up from last year is that Dallas will still rely upon their passing game. Last year, in Weeks 1-8, Dallas ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and tenth in pass rate over expectation. I prefer to take a glass-half-full approach when looking at the Dallas offense in 2025. With Prescott healthy and the addition of George Pickens, we should see a revitalized offense for the Cowboys this season. I think we will get a version of Prescott in 2025 closer to the 2023 model, when he was QB4 in fantasy points per game, seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate. Last year, Philly was no doubt one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the third-lowest passer rating. They did have some shortcomings last year, though. The Eagles also had the fifth-lowest pressure rate and blitz rate, and with the loss of Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, we’ll have to see if they can improve upon those numbers in 2025. Prescott could have clean pockets in Week 1, where he has time to diagnose Vic Fangio’s defense. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). If we rewind to 2023, Prescott ranked ninth in CPOE, 11th in fantasy points per dropback, and ninth in passer rating against two high. Prescott will have a tall task in Week 1, but he might surprise with a strong QB1 stat line.
The Cowboys put Javonte Williams in bubble wrap during the preseason. He didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, so his expected workload and role remain a mystery. Considering the context of this depth chart, though, I do expect him to be the team’s workhorse out of the gate. Now, projecting him to maintain that role for the entirety of the season is where it gets tricky. It comes down to which version of Williams we get this year. Last season, Williams finished as the RB36 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Williams struggled after Week 8 as he didn’t force a single missed tackle for the rest of the season. His production in Weeks 1-8 offers some hope that we could see a better version of him in 2025. Yes, he hit a wall down the stretch last season, but in the first eight games, among 43 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 13th in missed tackle rate (20% per Fantasy Points Data). The Eagles return most of their run defense from last year, with some changes along the defensive line. Williams could surprise people in Week 1 against a Philly run defense that in Weeks 10-18 last year allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-most yards after contact per attempt.
Hopefully, you took advantage of DeVonta Smith‘s value in drafts this season. It was criminal. He has finished as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14), and yet in some leagues, he slipped into WR3 territory. Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate. This is a wonderful opening matchup for Smith, who could hit the ground running to open the season. Dallas’ new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, over the last three seasons of coordinating a defense has featured single high with 54.5-60.2% of his defensive snaps while ranking ninth, 14th, and fifth in its usage over that span. Last year, against single high, Smith ranked eighth in separation and fifth in route win rate while posting 2.60 yards per route run, a 31.1% first-read share, and an absurd 0.134 first downs per route run. Last season, Dallas also allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Expect a strong showing against Dallas for Smith.
He’s FREE! George Pickens has been liberated from quarterback purgatory and will enjoy the best quarterback play of his career in a contract year. Last year, Pickens finished as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. He proved that he could operate as a number one option, ranking 16th in target share (23.9%), 25th in yards per route run (2.18), ninth in first-read share (32%), and 24th in receiving yards per game (64.3, per Fantasy Points Data). His numbers were even better in Weeks 1-13, before his hamstring injury, when he ranked 18th in separation, eighth in yards per route run (2.53), and 25th in route win rate. While I’m high on Pickens’ season-long outlook for 2025, I don’t love this matchup for him out of the gate. Last year, Philly allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Yes, they lost Darius Slay in the offseason and replaced him with Adoree Jackson, but this is also a tough schematic matchup for Pickens. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). In 2024, against two high, Pickens had only 1.07 yards per route run and 0.040 first downs per route run. Against two high, among 101 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 59th in separation and 71st in route win rate. Temper your expectations for Pickens this week.
Last year’s disappointing season for Jake Ferguson can be largely attributed to the absence of Dak Prescott. Prescott was lost for the season after Week 8. In Weeks 1-8, Ferguson was the TE12 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.9% target share (tenth-best), averaging 43.8 receiving yards per game (tenth-best), and commanding a 19.5% first-read share (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). During this stretch, Ferguson wasn’t an efficient player, ranking 25th in yards per route run and 30th in first downs per route run. Without Prescott, after Week 9, Ferguson didn’t have more than 40 receiving yards in a game for the rest of the season. After Week 8, Ferguson didn’t see a red zone target until the final game of the season. This is a good schematic matchup for Ferguson, but he’ll face a defense that was amazing in defending tight ends last year. Last year, after Week 14 (including the playoffs), the Eagles had the tenth highest rate of two high (54.4%). Last season, in Weeks 1-8 against two high, Ferguson had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.04 yards per route run, and a 26.5% first-read share. Those are all wonderful numbers, but here’s the issue. In 2024, Philly allowed the lowest yards per reception and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Ferguson could overcome the tough matchup with volume or a score.
Dallas Goedert has finished as a TE1 in fantasy points per game in EVERY season since 2019. Goedert dealt with injuries again last year with a knee issue and a hamstring ailment. When he was on the field and playing at least 60% of the snaps, he produced 11.8 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the TE8 in fantasy points per game last year. In that sample, he earned a 20.2% target share, churned out 55.1 receiving yards per game and 2.23 yards per route run, and garnered a 25.2% first-read share. Among 47 qualifying tight ends last year, those figures would have ranked sixth, fourth, fourth, and third last season. Goedert should have a solid opening to the 2025 season. Dallas’ new defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, over the last three seasons of coordinating a defense has featured single high with 54.5-60.2% of his defensive snaps while ranking ninth, 14th, and fifth in its usage over that span. Last year, against single high, Goedert had a wonderful 28% target per route run rate, 3.32 yards per route run, and 0.155 first downs per route run. Last season, Dallas allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
KC -3, O/U 45.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last year, Justin Herbert finished as the QB14 in fantasy points per game, but his season was a tale of two halves. Herbert sustained a foot injury in camp and a high ankle sprain in Week 3 that impacted his early-season efficiency. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert was the QB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 163 passing yards per game with 6.5 yards per attempt and 5.2 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 7-18, all of those numbers improved as he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked seventh in passing yards per game (254.6), sixth in yards per attempt (8.1), fourth in CPOE, second in hero throw rate, and averaged 23.3 rushing yards. Last season, he was the QB23 and QB19 in weekly scoring against the Chiefs, but one of those meetings was in Week 4 when lower-body injuries hampered him. Last year, Kansas City was a middle-of-the-road passing defense, ranking 16th in CPOE, 17th in passing yards per game allowed, and giving up the 14th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). Herbert was successful against two high last season, ranking 11th in yards per attempt and 12th in fantasy points per dropback against the coverage. Herbert could outperform expectations in Week 1, especially if Kansas City takes a lead early and forces the Bolts’ hand to lean into a pass-heavy approach.
Omarion Hampton should be considered the lead back for the Bolts, especially in the early going chunk of the season when Najee Harris‘s workload is up in the air. I know that’s not a shocking revelation considering Hampton’s first-round NFL draft capital and the hype machine around him all offseason. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Hampton ranked 12th and 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th and 26th in elusive rating. Losing Rashawn Slater this season will impact the Bolts’ ground game, which really isn’t up for debate. The question is, how much will it hurt? We’ll see in Week 1 as Hampton will face a stout run defense. Last year, Kansas City allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Hampton should get enough volume to overcome the matchup for fantasy, but don’t expect a ceiling performance to open the season.
Last year was another season dinged by injury for Pacheco. He missed a combined ten games with a rib injury and a broken fibula. Once he returned from injury last year in Week 13, he looked like a shell of himself. We should easily toss those numbers out for Pacheco, as he was clearly not fully healthy, and he failed to play more than 46% of the snaps in any game for the rest of the season (including the playoffs). In those games, he had only a 6% missed tackle rate and 1.63 yards after contact per attempt. In 2023, he ranked 11th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt while posting a 16% missed tackle rate. Last year, in the first game of the season, he played 80% of the snaps with 17 touches and 78 total yards. Pacheco could approach that type of workload, but I expect it to be a tad lower with Kareem Hunt involved on early downs and Brashard Smith stealing routes. Even in a more diluted role, Pacheco is still in a good spot in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Los Angeles allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if the Bolts’ run defense is improved this season, but I have my doubts after the team lost Joey Bosa, Poona Ford, and Morgan Fox in the offseason.
McConkey was amazing in his rookie season. Last year in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in receiving yards per game (89), fifth in yards per route run (2.97), and ninth in first downs per route run (0.127). He did all of that while only ranking 26th in target share (22.9%) and 21st in first read share (29.9%, per Fantasy Points Data). Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). Last year, against two high, McConkey didn’t post amazing numbers with only a 21% target per route run rate, 1.62 yards per route run, and 0.072 first downs per route run despite leading the team with a 22.8% first-read share. McConkey could cede more of the two high work to Keenan Allen this year. His role as the team’s slot receiver is also likely to take a hit with Allen back on the roster. Last year, McConkey had a 69.3% slot rate, which is sure to decline. The real question is how much? This matters a ton for Week 1 in particular. Last year, Kansas City allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Now, I will also say that they were eaten alive by slot receivers (allowing the most fantasy points per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target last year). If McConkey and Allen rotate in and out of the slot, McConkey can still walk away with a solid day despite my concerns. The big thing that I want to impress here is that there’s a lot of volatility for his outlook this week, so tread carefully.
With Rashee Rice serving his six-game suspension to begin the season, Xavier Worthy should step right back into the “Rice role” until Rice returns. Last year in that role, in Weeks 13-17, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, with a 21.3% target share, 57 receiving yards per game, an aDOT of 6.3, and a designed target rate of 25.6%. In those five games, Worthy had a whopping nine red zone targets. Worthy faces a Chargers’ secondary that had the third-highest two-high rate last year (58.6%). Sadly, last year, even in Weeks 13-17, Worthy wasn’t very effective against two high with only an 18% target per route run rate, 1.0 yards per route run, and 0.016 first downs per route run despite seeing a 20.8% first-read share. It’s tough to get excited about Worthy this week. Last year, the Bolts allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Yes, they have Donte Jackson (2024: 61.3% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating allowed) and Cam Hart (2024: 58.9% catch rate and 90.0 passer rating allowed) on the outside this year, which is a change, so maybe that offers some hope for Worthy. He’s a volume play only this week.
Keenan Allen returns to the Bolts after a one-year dalliance with Chicago. I’ll lead this off by saying that we can toss Allen’s yards per route run and first downs per route run in the trash, as every Bears wide receiver’s efficiency metrics were tanked last year by Caleb Williams‘ struggles. Allen finished as the WR31 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he didn’t have any issues, still earning volume at a high rate, ranking 20th in target share (23.5%) and 26th in first-read share (28.8%). His route running and separation skills remained solid. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 45th in separation and 40th in route win rate. Last year, his slot rate dipped slightly to 54%. I expect that to creep back up toward the 60% mark in Los Angeles. Last year, the Chiefs were ripped in half by slot receivers (allowing the most fantasy points per game and the 11th-highest PPR points per target last year). Allen could have a nice volume-fueled day against the Chiefs. Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). In 2024, against two high among 101 qualifying wide receivers, Allen ranked 41st in separation and 48th in route win rate. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but they are still quite solid. Allen is a strong flex in Week 1, especially in PPR formats.
Last year, Travis Kelce finished with the fewest receiving yards of his career since becoming a starter in 2014. He still gobbled up targets, but he was hopelessly inefficient last year, and entering his age-35 season, I’m not sure if that changes. Last year, he finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game, which was aided by Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense and Kelce having the third-most targets among tight ends. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kelce ranked fourth in target share (22%), fifth in receiving yards per game (51.4), and first in red zone targets, but that’s where the good news stops, as he was also 18th in yards per route run (1.62), 40th in yards after the catch per reception (3.86), and 18th in first downs per route run. Kelce has a tough matchup to open the season. Last year, the Chargers allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, the second-lowest yards per reception, and the fewest receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
After weeks of wondering whether he would make it back for Week 1, Najee Harris is a go against the Chiefs. While his status is now known, his role in the offense isn’t set in stone. His workload remains a mystery, especially early in the season. This isn’t the week to explore Harris’s upside as a flex in a tough matchup without any idea of what his touch count could look like. Last year, Kansas City allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Hollywood Brown dealt with an ankle issue during camp and the preseason. He looks likely to suit up for Week 1, but it’s tough to muster any level of excitement to toss him into a flex spot in a lineup. Last year, Brown suffered an SC joint injury and was limited to only two games in the regular season, where he played 27-40% of the snaps. In those two games, he was hyper-targeted to get him involved, seeing a 19% target share and 43% TPRR (unsustainable). The postseason gave us a better indication of where he is in his career when he had a 70% route share (three games) and sadly only had a 15.7% target share, 0.67 yards per route run, 14.5% first-read share, and 0.040 first downs per route run. He’s likely not 100% healthy right now, so we could see his routes limited in Week 1. Even if I knew he was a full-time player against the Bolts, I can’t say that I would be telling anyone to plug him into a fantasy lineup.
It’s impossible to have any confidence in flexing Quentin Johnston in Week 1. I don’t see Ladd McConkey or Keenan Allen in any danger of leaving the field, but Johnston could see his routes cut into by Tre Harris or KeAndre Lambert-Smith (or both). For you deep league degens, I’ll still discuss his outlook, though. Johnston had two up and down meetings with Kansas City last year, even as a full-time player with a WR89 finish in the first go around and a kinder WR22 finish in Week 14. Last season, Kansas City had the second-highest two high rate last year (60.9%). In 2024, against two high, Johnston had only a 19% target per route run rate but he managed 2.37 yards per route run rate and a 21.6% first-read share. Johnston could turn only a handful of targets into a decent day, but it’s impossible to bet on him in most leagues because of this volatility, when we haven’t seen how the Bolts will deploy their wide receivers after McConkey and Allen.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He led an offense that ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation. Mayfield ranked fifth in passing attempts, third in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns. Mayfield’s passing touchdowns could regress some in 2025, as he had 41 last year, when he had never eclipsed 30 before. Now, that doesn’t mean his passing touchdowns will drop back into the 20s, but I do expect him to finish somewhere in the mid-30s. Another area where Mayfield could see some regression is in the rushing department. Last year, he finished with 378 rushing yards (10th-best) and three rushing scores (12th-best). Both of those figures were also career highs. I’m not trying to take anything away from Mayfield because he was studly on a per-dropback basis. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he was seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE and second in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mayfield should have a strong game out of the gate. Last year, Atlanta allowed the second-most passing touchdowns, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE to quarterbacks. With Jeff Ulbrich as the new defensive coordinator, they should remain two-high heavy. In two of Ulbrich’s last three seasons calling defensive plays, he has ranked in the top ten in two high usage (fifth and tenth, 51.7-54.3% of snaps). This also matches well with Atlanta, which was 12th in two high usage last year (50.3%). Last year, Mayfield smoked two high, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns against the coverage shell while also ranking second-best in passer rating and fantasy points per dropback.
Michael Penix showed some promise in his brief cup of coffee as the starter last year. In Weeks 16-18 last season, he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game, which would have translated to QB23 for the season. He was extremely aggressive, ranking sixth in deep throw rate, fourth in hero throw rate, and second in aDOT. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, 43rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in catchable target rate. Penix isn’t a rushing threat, with no more than five rushing yards in any of his starts last year, so he’ll have to rack up all of his fantasy scoring from the pocket. If this game shoots out (likely), Penix could be pressed into a heavier passing game script than Atlanta might want and post a juicy stat line. Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Against single-high, Penix ranked eighth in yards per attempt and fifth in CPOE. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Tampa Bay allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game and the 12th-highest CPOE.
At the beginning of the offseason, Emeka Egbuka looked like this year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft found himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but as we have progressed through the offseason and camp, the pathway has become clearer for Egbuka to step up in a big way in year one. Godwin’s health issues are much more complicated than originally anticipated, and he might not be at 100% til the mid-point of the 2025 season. Jalen McMillan sustained a neck injury in the preseason that has also called his availability for a large chunk of this season into question (he could be out until their bye in Week 9). Egbuka looks like he could be the clear WR2 for the Bucs for most of the season, if not all of it. Egbuka’s talent has never been in question. In two of Egbuka’s final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Atlanta’s two-high approach should yield a ton of targets for Egbuka in Week 1 against the Falcons’ rookie nickel corner Billy Bowman Jr., who, in his final collegiate season, allowed a 68.7% catch rate and 125 passer rating (29th-highest among 255 qualifying safeties) in slot coverage.
Last year, Darnell Mooney posted the second WR3 finish of his career in fantasy points per game (WR34), and he could easily do it again in 2025. There’s no disputing that the Falcons’ passing attack will be led by Drake London and Mooney this season. The target tree is extremely consolidated. Last year, Mooney had a 19.6% target share while averaging 62 receiving yards per game (29th-best), posting 2.04 yards per route run (31st) and 0.099 first downs per route run (28th). Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Last year, against single-high, Mooney posted 1.81 yards per route run, a 26% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run. All of those are solid metrics against single high. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mooney sustained a shoulder injury during camp, but assuming that all reports are good heading into Week 1, I don’t see him seeing a snap hit against the Bucs.
Otton’s status (leg) is up in the air for Week 1, but he did practice on Monday. Check back Friday, and I’ll have a full write-up for him or Payne Durham added to the Primer. The matchup is quite nice. Last year, Atlanta allowed the seventh-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
I’m frightened to death about Kyle Pitts‘ season-long outlook in 2025, but he is worth considering as a streamer/YOLO upside play in Week 1 (if ya need the upside). Last year, Pitts was the TE20 in fantasy points per game. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Pitts ranked 24th in target share, 19th in receiving yards per game, 26th in yards per route run, and 39th in first downs per route run. That is all bone-chilling, but his boxscore numbers against Tampa Bay were mouthwatering. He posted arguably his best two games against this defense last year, averaging 5.5 receptions and 89.5 receiving yards with TE2 and TE6 weekly scoring finishes. Last year, Tampa Bay had the sixth-highest single high rate (59.5%). Last year, against single-high, Pitts had a 17% target per route run rate and 2.03 yards per route run, but he also logged a 9.3% first-read share and only 0.064 first downs per route run. He’s a boom or bust play for Week 1. It could also help him, though, that Tampa Bay gave up the fourth-most receiving yards per game and yards per reception to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last year, Rachaad White lost his bell-cow role with Bucky Iriving asserting himself and taking over the backfield. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for White, though. In Weeks 10-17, he still averaged 13.5 touches and 68.4 total yards as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. While I don’t think that he will continue to rock along as an RB2 in 2025, he could easily retain RB3/flex value in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Last year, White did see his efficiency tick up with the decrease in workload, as he ranked 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 15th in yards after contact per attempt, and 18th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). White could easily be Tampa Bay’s version of Jaylen Warren. In most leagues, you won’t be pressed to flex him in Week 1, but he’s viable in deeper leagues. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Atlanta allowed the 15th-highest missed tackle rate, the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and ranked 18th in explosive run rate.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Drake Maye did the best he could last year with a pitiful supporting cast. His offensive line was patchwork at best, and arguably, his top two pass catchers were Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas. Despite all of this, in the nine games Maye played at least 90% of the snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the QB11 last year. In those contests, he averaged. 36.8 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season. Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in hero throw rate, and had the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. Maye could surprise in Week 1 with a soft opening matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders have overhauled their secondary, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be good in 2025. Eric Stokes and Kyu Kelly as their perimeter corners are suspect at best. The Raiders also had the 12th-lowest pressure rate last year. While the return of Maxx Crosby will help in that department, the rest of their defensive line is mediocre. Maye should have time in the pocket if his rebuilt offensive line can prove competent. Last year, the Raiders allowed the 14th-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest CPOE. All of these figures could be even worse in 2025.
Geno Smith was the QB15 in fantasy points per game on the strength of operating in an offense that ranked fourth in passing attempts. I don’t know if he’ll be afforded anywhere near that amount of volume with the Raiders, but Smith also checked more than a few boxes for strong quarterback play last season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in CPOE, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate. The wheels came off for Smith when he was pressured, and that happened often in 2024 as he faced the sixth-most pressures in the NFL. Last year, when pressured, Smith ranked 35th in passer rating with the fourth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate while sitting at 17th in adjusted completion rate. When Smith passed from a clean pocket, he ranked 13th in passer rating, had the 23rd-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate, and was second in adjusted completion rate. The move from Seattle to Las Vegas could benefit Smith’s pressure sensitivity greatly, as the Raiders were 14th in pass blocking grade last season (Seattle 19th). The Patriots will have an improved pass rush this season. The question is how much. Last year, New England had the fourth-lowest pressure rate. The additions of Harold Landry, Robert Spillane, and K’Lavon Chaisson will help the team improve upon last year’s mark. Smith should still have time in the pocket to operate this week, though. Last season, New England also ranked 15th in yards per attempt while giving up the third-highest CPOE and seventh-highest passer rating. The addition of Carlton Davis to run opposite Christian Gonzalez will have something to say about that in 2025, but until we see them perform this should be considered only a middle-of-the-road matchup until we have seen the on field product perform.
The workload division for the New England backfield is up in the air. We’ll have to see how that plays out early this season before we can get a full understanding of TreVeyon Henderson‘s weekly expected touch count. Even if he is more limited out of the gate, Henderson has the per-touch explosiveness to make the most of his opportunities. In two of his last four seasons in college, Henderson ranked top ten in yards after contact per attempt (seventh, eighth) and top 20 in breakaway percentage (10th, 18th). He will operate behind an improved offensive line that added Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell, and Morgan Moses in the offseason. Henderson should be the favorite for passing down work, which is great news for his floor and ceiling. Across his last two collegiate seasons, Henderson has ranked 21st & 22nd in receiving grade. Josh McDaniels will feature him through the air. In McDaniels’ last five full seasons of directing NFL offenses, he has ranked inside the top ten in four of those years, with 20-36.2% of the passing attack flowing through the backfield. The Raiders have a worrisome defensive line assortment when it comes to stopping the run. Last year, Adam Butler (48.3) and Thomas Booker IV (53.6) had run defense grades below 55, and Malcolm Koonce has performed at a similar level in two of his three NFL seasons. Last year, the Raiders had the 14th-highest missed tackle rate and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Arguably, their run defense personnel has worsened, too. Henderson could rip off a few big runs in Week 1 and finish with a banner day.
It was another up-and-down (more down) season for Stevenson. He dealt with a foot injury and benchings related to fumble issues. Overall, he finished as the RB27 in fantasy points per game with snooze-worthy per-touch numbers. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 38th in explosive run rate, 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). All of these dings led to the team adding to the backfield with their selection of TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson could still retain a goal-line and should still be active on early downs, but he’s likely a touchdown-dependent flex this week. He has a good matchup against the Raiders, though. The Raiders have a worrisome defensive line assortment when it comes to stopping the run. Last year, Adam Butler (48.3) and Thomas Booker IV (53.6) had run defense grades below 55, and Malcolm Koonce has performed at a similar level in two of his three NFL seasons. Last year, the Raiders had the 14th-highest missed tackle rate and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Before he tore his ACL last year, Stefon Diggs was the WR15 in fantasy points per game, running nearly 53% of his routes from the slot, commanding a 22.1% target share and 28.5% first-read share while producing 1.97 yards per route run and 62 receiving yards per game. Diggs could be eased into action in Week 1, but I do expect him to have a high route per dropback rate. I just won’t be surprised if they pull him off the field during some rushing plays. Diggs showed last year that he still has the juice to play outside, which is how I expect the Pats to utilize him. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, Diggs ranked 15th in separation and 21st in route win rate when lined up on the perimeter. I don’t think the perimeter tandem of Eric Stokes (career 59.8% catch rate and 98.2 passer rating allowed) and Kyu Kelly (seven career targets defended with a 71.4% catch rate and 118.5 passer rating allowed) can slow him down in Week 1.
Last year, in the ten full games with Drake Maye starting, DeMario Douglas had a 16.3% target share, 1.67 yards per route run, a 19.7% first-read share, and 0.079 first downs per route run. Nothing jumps off the page there, but he did manage three top 36 wide receiver finishes in those ten contests despite only managing five red zone targets. He does have a wonderful matchup for Week 1, though, so Douglas could be a nice deep PPR league flex. Darnay Holmes isn’t a nickel corner to worry about (2024: 77.1% catch rate and 90.7 passer rating allowed). Last year, Las Vegas allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Last year, in Drake Maye‘s full starts, Hunter Henry had a 19.2% target share, averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game, had 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run. I’ll also add on top that he averaged 11.3 PPR points per game in that sample. Last year, among all tight ends with 25 targets, those marks would have ranked seventh, sixth, 14th, fifth, eighth, and the points per game production would have made him the TE8 in fantasy. Last year, the Raiders allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game and the seventh-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Jakobi Meyers will reprise his role as Brock Bowers‘ running mate, leading the Raiders’ passing attack. Last year, after the departure of Davante Adams, Meyers was the WR18 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 98 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 19th in target share (23.5%), 13th in receiving yards per game (75.4), 34th in first downs per route run (0.096), and 11th in first-read share (32.6%, per Fantasy Points Data). I’m not expecting Meyers to be a consistent WR2 this season again. The additions of Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Amari Cooper will ding his target share slightly. Temper your expectations for the savvy veteran in Week 1 as he’ll have to consistently tangle with Carlton Davis (2024: 59.7% catch rate and 87.9 passer rating allowed) and Christian Gonzalez (2024: 54.8% catch rate and 70.5 passer rating allowed) all day.
DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI
