Garion Thorne details his top home run props for Wednesday’s slate, including bets for George Springer, Matt Shaw and Christian Yelich.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
There’s a huge evening slate of MLB action on Wednesday, but allow me to narrow the field down to three bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook: George Springer, Matt Shaw and Christian Yelich.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
George Springer 1+ Home Run (+330)
The ball was flying out of Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, as the Jays and the Reds combined for six long balls and 21 runs in what was a back-and-forth affair. I think we’ll see a little more of that narrative on Wednesday. Two of those six home runs were hit by George Springer, who now has 26 homers for the year — his most in a single campaign since all the way back in 2019. It’s been a wild season for the soon-to-be 36-year-old, as Springer was left for dead by most baseball fans after a terrible 2024. Instead, Springer has simply been one of the best hitters in the world over the past five months, registering 98th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.412) and expected slugging rate (.583). Now, Springer will get to square-off with Zack Littell. While the RHP does somehow have an ERA below 4.00, Little is one of only two pitchers to surrender at least 30 opponent home runs so far in 2025.
While it’s certainly annoying that Matt Shaw hits at the bottom of the Cubs’ lineup, there’s just no justification for his home runs odds being this long on Wednesday night. I mean, since the All-Star break, it’s Shaw who leads Chicago in both long balls (9) and wRC+ (158). Part of that is due to massive slumps from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, but still. Shaw’s been quite good over the past two months — and quite dangerous. Then there’s the Bryce Elder factor. Elder has been a little better at keeping the ball in the park over his last handful of starts, yet for the season as a whole, the right-hander has surrendered 1.69 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs. I’d have take a hard look at Shaw in that spot if he were +400 to go deep. +800 seems like a no-brainer.
Christian Yelich 1+ Home Run (+400)
Christian Yelich very much belongs in the same “power hitters you forgot about” bucket as the aforementioned Springer, as the outfielder’s 27 long balls in 2025 are easily the most he’s hit since he was challenging for back-to-back MVP awards in 2019. Heck, Yelich hadn’t even mustered 20 home runs in a season since slugging 44 back in what we now know was a juiced ball heaven for batters. As you might expect, the 33-year-old has been at his peak against right-handed pitching this season, with a .240 ISO and a 144 wRC+ within the split. Yelich aligns perfectly in tonight’s matchup with the struggling Aaron Nola, as the long-time Phillies’ ace hasn’t been able to suppress left-handed power throughout 2025. To wit, Nola’s conceding a jaw-dropping 2.77 home runs per nine to LHBs across his 12 starts. Woof.