The last round of the NRL season has arrived with 10 teams mathematically in the hunt for finals action heading into the weekend.
The top-four fight is a thrilling three-team race where all three contenders face tricky Round 27 games – whether due to a tough opponent or their own poor form.
Meanwhile the Dolphins are desperately hoping for help from the Rabbitohs, who could spoil the Roosters’ season on Friday night.
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Scroll down to see the current predicted Week 1 NRL finals fixture and the finals scenarios for all 10 contenders.
All times AEST.
CURRENT NRL LADDER (Before Thursday night)
1. Raiders (44 pts, +186)
2. Storm (40 pts, +228)
3. Bulldogs (38 pts, +138)
4. Broncos (34 pts, +156)
5. Sharks (34 pts, +91)
6. Warriors (34 pts, +22)
7. Panthers (31 pts, +87)
8. Roosters (30 pts, +102)
9. Dolphins (28 pts, +87)
10. Sea Eagles (28 pts, +20)
ROUND 27 GAMES
Broncos vs Storm, Thursday 7:50pm at Suncorp Stadium
Sea Eagles vs Warriors, Friday 6pm at 4 Pines Park
Roosters vs Rabbitohs, Friday 8pm at Allianz Stadium
Dragons vs Panthers, Saturday 3pm at WIN Stadium
Titans vs Tigers, Saturday 5:30pm at Cbus Super Stadium
Bulldogs vs Sharks, Saturday 7:35pm at Accor Stadium
Dolphins vs Raiders, Sunday 2pm at Kayo Stadium
Eels vs Knights, Sunday 4pm at CommBank Stadium
Bye: Cowboys
CURRENT PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS
First Qualifying Final: Raiders (1st) vs Broncos (4th)
Likely played night of Saturday September 13 at GIO Stadium
First Elimination Final: Sharks (5th) vs Roosters (8th)
Likely played afternoon of Sunday September 14 at Shark Park
Second Elimination Final: Warriors (6th) vs Panthers (7th)
Likely played evening of Saturday September 13 at Go Media Stadium
Second Qualifying Final: Storm (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
Likely played night of Friday September 12 at AAMI Park
Does Walsh need a PR handler? | 02:56
FINALS SCENARIOS FOR THE REMAINING CONTENDERS
1. Canberra Raiders (44 pts, +186)
To play: Dolphins at Kayo Stadium, Sunday 2pm
Win or lose: Finish 1st
The Raiders are guaranteed two home finals and the minor premiership. They’ll face either the Broncos, Sharks or Warriors in their qualifying final.
2. Melbourne Storm (40 pts, +228)
To play: Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, Thursday 7:50pm
Win or lose: Finish 2nd
Technically the Storm could drop into third with an absolutely massive loss and a similarly massive win by the Bulldogs, but realistically they’re set to host the Bulldogs in a qualifying final, likely on Friday night.
3. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (38 pts, +138)
To play: Sharks at Accor Stadium, Saturday 7:50pm
Win or lose: Finish 3rd
Technically the Bulldogs could move into second with an absolutely massive win and a similarly massive loss by the Storm, but realistically they’re heading to Melbourne for a qualifying final, likely on Friday night.
4. Brisbane Broncos (34 pts, +156)
To play: Storm at Suncorp Stadium, Thursday 7:50pm
Win: Finish 4th
Lose: Finish 4th if Sharks and Warriors lose, 5th if one wins, 6th if both win
Thankfully the Broncos, the Storm have nothing to play for tonight, as Michael Maguire’s men need a win to clinch a top-four finish. But if they’re beaten they’ll have to wait nervously until Saturday night to learn where they’ll play in week one of the finals. Neither the Sharks nor Warriors are favoured to win, but if they both win, the Broncos could end up hosting the Panthers in an elimination final in a worst-case scenario.
Dropping Shibasaki the ‘right call’ | 02:33
5. Cronulla Sharks (34 pts, +91)
To play: Bulldogs at Accor Stadium, Saturday 7:50pm
Win: Finish 4th if Broncos lose, 5th if Broncos win
Lose: Finish 5th if Warriors lose, 6th if Warriors win
The Sharks need some help from the Storm to sneak into the top four. If the Broncos lose, that opens the door for Cronulla to book a qualifying final date with Canberra. Otherwise they’re hosting an elimination final against the Roosters, Panthers or Dolphins.
6. New Zealand Warriors (34 pts, +22)
To play: Sea Eagles at 4 Pines Park, Friday 6pm
Win: Finish 4th if Broncos and Sharks lose, 5th if one wins, 6th if both win
Lose: Finish 6th
The Warriors’ poor points differential effectively counts as another loss in the standings, so they need both the Broncos (vs Storm) and Sharks (vs Bulldogs) to lose if they’re to sneak into the top four. They also need to beat the Sea Eagles, which seems entirely realistic except the Warriors have lost four of their last six games. With a loss they’re locked into 6th and are very likely to host Penrith in an elimination final.
7. Penrith Panthers (31 pts, +87)
To play: Dragons at WIN Stadium, Saturday 3pm
Win: Finish 7th
Lose: Finish 7th if Roosters lose, 8th if Roosters win
Taking care of business against the Dragons will lock the Panthers into 7th, sending them into an elimination final against either the Warriors, Sharks or Broncos (in order of likelihood). With a loss they could fall into 8th but either way they’d play an elimination final against one of those teams, so the only impact would be on the rest of their finals bracket and who they could play in the semi and preliminary finals.
8. Sydney Roosters (30 pts, +102)
To play: Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium, Friday 8pm
Win: Finish 7th if Panthers lose, 8th if Panthers win
Lose: Finish 8th if Dolphins lose, miss finals if Dolphins win (by enough)
The Roosters simply must defeat the Rabbitohs to ensure themselves a finals place and a comfortable weekend. A victory will book them an elimination final against one of the Sharks, Warriors or Broncos. But if they lose on Friday night they’ll be nervously waiting until Sunday, when the Dolphins will have the chance to leapfrog them with a big enough win over the resting Raiders.
9. Dolphins (28 pts, +87)
To play: Raiders at Kayo Stadium, Sunday 2pm
Win: Finish 8th if Roosters lose (by enough), otherwise miss finals
Lose: Miss finals
First, the Dolphins need the Roosters to lose to the Rabbitohs on Friday night. If that happens they’ll know exactly how much they need to beat the resting Raiders by on Sunday afternoon. The points differential gap is not that substantial so it’s plausible they’ll be making their maiden finals appearance – which would come in an elimination final against the Sharks, Warriors or Broncos – but it all rests on the Rabbitohs for now.
10. Manly Sea Eagles (28 pts, +20)
To play: Warriors at 4 Pines Park, Friday 6pm
Win: Finish 8th if Roosters and Dolphins lose (by a huge amount), otherwise miss finals
Lose: Miss finals
They would need to smash the Warriors by 40-odd points while the Roosters and Dolphins both get demolished by 40-odd points to have any chance of making it. So we’re putting them here because it’s mathematically possible, but… no.