Every fantasy manager knows schedule strength can have a huge impact on fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.

Many matchup ranking systems rely on how an overall defense fares in the various fantasy points allowed metrics. My system uses those metrics as a base and then adds in variables such as the likelihood a team will get into a high-scoring game and pass blocking/pass rush strength. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being least favorable and 100 being most favorable.

Keep in mind these grades are all based on fantasy scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my “Soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football” article, a defensive back who has a low/good yards per attempt (YPA) allowed mark but yields a lot of fantasy points per game (using PPR scoring) will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.

I have found over the years the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is the outer margins — matchup totals 80 or higher (favorable) and 20 or lower (unfavorable). The lists below show the full scope of Week 1’s most and least favorable matchups by player position, starting with quarterbacks. Let’s break down some of the most interesting ones.

Note: Any specific metrics are via TruMedia/PFF or Stathead unless otherwise noted.

Most favorable Week 1 matchupsQuarterbacks

Michael Penix, ATL: Tampa Bay added two talented cornerbacks in this year’s draft but the Buccaneers still rate as one of the most favorable coverage matchups in Week 1. It may be enough to drive Penix to a low-end QB1 ranking.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Carolina lands near the bottom of the pass coverage list due mostly to subpar coverage metrics for their starting safeties Tre’von Moehrig and Nick Scott. Liam Coen is one of the most creative play callers in the NFL and he will go after that deep-pass-coverage weakness early and often. That provides Lawrence with a path to a QB1 point total.

C.J. Stroud, HOU: Rams starting safeties Kam Curl and Kamren Kinchens have a history of subpar coverage metrics. The issue for Stroud is whether or not his offensive line can hold up versus a powerful Los Angeles pass rush. If Stroud gets time, he can push top-12 QB numbers.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby, JAX: In 2024, Carolina was last in the league in fantasy PPG allowed to opposing running backs on rushing plays. Even if the Panthers defense takes a forward step this season, this should still be a favorable matchup for both Etienne and Bigsby.

Tyrone Tracy/Cam Skattebo/Devin Singletary, NYG: Washington fared quite poorly versus the run last year, ending the season ranked 27th in RB rush PPG allowed. The Commanders have added some talent on that side of the ball, but this should still be a plus matchup for whichever back(s) the Giants decide to rely on this week.

Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason, MIN: Chicago went through a defensive overhaul, but this platoon needs a lot of improvement to turn around a No. 30 ranking in RB rush PPG allowed. Kevin O’Connell may want to lean on Jones and Mason in this matchup to take some of the pressure off of J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start.

Wide Receivers

Jayden Higgins, HOU: It’s always tough to start a rookie in Week 1. Higgins may be an exception due to his superb talents and the likelihood of facing Rams cornerback Darious Williams in coverage. Williams allowed 8.9 PPR PPG last year, a mark that is just below the 9-point total that designates a defender as a plus matchup. It makes Higgins worth a start in deeper leagues.

Jerry Jeudy, CLE: Cleveland may have to throw the ball a lot to keep up in what could be a high-scoring game against Cincinnati. The Bengals have two subpar safeties in Jordan Battle and Geno Stone. Jeudy will be the primary candidate to exploit those weaknesses, so he should be in fantasy starting lineups this week.

Emeka Egbuka, TB: The big question mark for Egbuka is where he will line up on Sunday. With Chris Godwin all but certain to miss this game, Egbuka will likely see a lot of work as a slot receiver. That will place him against Falcons cornerback Dee Alford, who had the seventh-highest PPR PPG allowed in 2024. With that type of matchup, Egbuka appears to be worth the Week 1 risk.

Tight ends

David Njoku, CLE: Bengals starting strong safety Jordan Battle has allowed a 74.5 percent completion rate and 12.1 yards per completion on 47 targets during his two NFL seasons. Joe Flacco and Kevin Stefanski know how to target coverage weaknesses like this, so Njoku could have a strong start to his 2025 campaign.

Dalton Schultz, HOU: Rams strong safety Kam Curl allowed 14.8 yards per completion and 4 touchdowns on 45 targets in 2024. That’s the type of coverage metrics that could make Schultz, a hit-or-miss fantasy prospect, land in the hit column in Week 1.

Kyle Pitts, ATL: Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield had some of the worst coverage metrics of any safety for the 2024 season. That’s a trend for Winfield and it will cause him to be a primary target for what should be a revitalized Falcons passing attack. It’s enough to consider starting Pitts.

Least favorable Week 1 matchupsQuarterbacks

Dak Prescott, DAL: All but one of the Eagles’ secondary players earned a red rating in my weekly coverage matchup grading system (indicating a matchup fantasy managers should avoid). Prescott has some talented players around him, but this caliber of matchup makes him a low-percentage play.

Bo Nix, DEN: Denver is a Super Bowl sleeper due in large part to having what might be the best defense in the NFL. With Nix due to face a talented Titans secondary that has two red-rated safeties, Sean Payton is likely to rely on the ground game and his defense to win this week. It gives Nix a low fantasy ceiling and should lead to bench status on teams that have solid replacement options.

Matthew Stafford, LAR: Houston cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter might be the best cornerback tandem in the NFL. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are must-start candidates versus any matchup, but Stafford, who is typically only slated for start status in SuperFlex or 2QB leagues, should be benched if possible, even in those leagues.

Running backs

Javonte Williams, DAL: Strong run defense is a hallmark of a Vic Fangio system. That was certainly the case last year when the Eagles ranked third in RB rush PPG allowed. There is every reason to expect a repeat of that performance in 2025. With that type of matchup on deck, Williams should be slated for bench duty this week.

Isiah Pacheco, KC: Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter knows the value of stopping the run. Los Angeles did that last year, finishing fourth best in RB rush PPG allowed. It’s not enough to bench Pacheco in all leagues, but this matchup is a strong reason to consider sitting him.

Tony Pollard, TEN: Pollard ranked last in fantasy points per scrimmage play among the 20 running backs with 250 or more last year. That already makes him a difficult start choice, even before accounting for a road matchup against a Broncos defense that was second in RB rush PPG allowed last year — and might be even better this season. Add it up and this is a week to sit Pollard.

Wide receivers

CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens, DAL: First, Lamb is a must-start player regardless of the matchup, so don’t go sitting him just because he has only one matchup point. Second, Pickens is still an unproven commodity in Dallas. He’ll have value this year, but this matchup is the type of tiebreaker that should lead to bench status in most cases.

Khalil Shakir, BUF: This is a tough call. Shakir will likely spend plenty of time facing Marlon Humphrey in coverage. Humphrey had superb coverage metrics last year but also saw a lot of targets. It’s a combination that could lead to various fantasy coverage grades for Humphrey this season. This week’s lean for Humphrey’s grades went in the direction of an unfavorable matchup. Don’t consider Shakir a must-sit candidate due to this matchup, but if you have a better option, you may want to deploy it.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram, DEN: Tennessee has one of the best safety tandems in the NFL in Amani Hooker and Xavier Woods. The rest of the Titans secondary is a step below. That could cause Sean Payton to direct Bo Nix’s passes elsewhere. It makes this a low-ceiling week for Engram and puts him on the bench candidate list.

Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth, PIT: Tony Adams and Andre Cisco give the Jets a very strong safety tandem. That alone might be enough to consider moving beyond Smith or Freiermuth this week, but one also has to account for the potential of a split-target situation. It might be best to wait until Week 2 to decide what to do with Smith and Freiermuth.

Jake Ferguson, DAL: Ferguson has an absolute bear of a coverage schedule this season. It starts in Week 1 with a matchup against what might be the best secondary in the league. This gives Ferguson a low ceiling that is very likely to be replicated quite often throughout the 2025 campaign.

(Photo of Tank Bigsby, Trevor Lawrence: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)