Happy New Year, NFL bettors! While we had some small appetizers to begin the 2025 regular season on Thursday and Friday, we now embark on the main course: the first full Sunday of the year. As you anxiously await the action to unfold, you’ll naturally spend Sunday morning putting together those last-minute bets. Who comes out on top? Which teams cover? That’s where we come in. 

Below, we’ve given out our predictions for reach game on Sunday on top of the Monday Night Football showdown. You’ll be able to find every pick (both moneyline and against the spread), but we also dive a bit deeper on a handful of games that we consider to be best bets. 

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There’s been plenty of preseason hype surrounding the New England Patriots in 2025, and for good reason. They spent the offseason bolstering key pillars of the organization, headlined by the hiring of head coach Mike Vrabel. I believe his presence alone will raise the floor well above the back-to-back 4-13 campaigns they’ve endured over the last two years. They also made some key additions in free agency and at the NFL Draft, which should help Drake Maye take a leap in Year 2. While I remain high on the Patriots this season, and believe they can will out a win in the opener, it’ll be tight. 

For as much attention as New England has received, the Las Vegas Raiders have done similar things this offseason and are flying under the radar. They too have better coaching with Pete Carroll brought in, and now have a more stable quarterback situation with Geno Smith under center. The familiarity between Carroll and Smith from their days in Seattle should allow the Raiders offense to hit the ground running and highlight key weapons like tight end Brock Bowers and first-round rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. 

Moreover, the central reason why I like taking the Raiders +3 in this spot is due to a key strength of the Patriots — the secondary — being banged up. Specifically, All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez has been sidelined for the bulk of camp due to a hamstring injury and will not suit up. That should allow Smith easier passing lanes in this road matchup. 

Projected score: Patriots 23, Raiders 21
The pick: Raiders +2.5 | Odds via BetMGM

Don’t look a trends when following this pick. Why? Because Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four road Week 1 games. On top of that, the Jets have been abysmal to begin seasons, owning a 6-20 SU record and 7-19 ATS record in September since 2017 (both worst in the NFL). It’s not a pretty picture for Jets backers like myself, but I like them in this spot as a home dog.  

I have major questions about how this latest Aaron Rodgers experiment will go with the Steelers. On name value, it’s a slam dunk acquisition, but Rodgers is coming off his worst statistical season of his career and is 41 years old. When he got hot down the stretch, it was in large part due to his rapport with old buddy Davante Adams. Rodgers doesn’t have that built-in chemistry with anyone in the Steelers pass pass-catching group, and I expect the offense to look a bit clunky out of the gate. After all, Rodgers signed just before minicamp and didn’t take part in any preseason action, so he hasn’t had his feet held to the fire much with this group. 

To add to that, his first test will be against a defensive personnel that knows him extremely well after practicing against him over the last few years. Justin Fields may be limited as a passer, but I think New York’s defense will be able to give Pittsburgh’s offense enough fits to allow Fields to play at his pace with a run-first, ball-dominant approach en route to the upset home win/cover. 

Projected score: Jets 23, Steelers 20 
The pick: Jets +3  | Odds via BetMGM

NFL Week 1 survivor pool picks: 49ers a stay-away in opener, while NFC West rival named best bet

Tyler Sullivan

NFL Week 1 survivor pool picks: 49ers a stay-away in opener, while NFC West rival named best bet


Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Like many others, I love the Broncos this season. What they were able to do in Year 1 with Bo Nix flew a bit under the radar thanks to Jayden Daniels leading the Commanders to the NFC Championship a year ago, but it was impressive nonetheless. Conventional thinking would assume that Nix improves coming into his sophomore season, and the Broncos roster has only gotten better since the last time we saw them. Offensively, they added tight end Evan Engram and totally revamped the backfield with rookie RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. Meanwhile, Dre Greenlaw and talanoa Hufanga are two underrated additions on a defense that was already top-three in the NFL a season ago. 

Denver could very well finish with the best defense in the NFL by the time we put a bow on 2025, and that’s bad news for Cam Ward out of the gate. I believe the Miami product will make the Titans are much more respectable outfit this season and point them in the right direction going forward, but this is a lopsided matchup. 

Last season, Tennessee went 2-15 ATS, which was the worst ATS record since at least 1970. Meanwhile, Denver was 8-0 ATS as a favorite in 2024. Those trends will carry over at least into Week 1. 

Projected score: Broncos 27, Titans 17  | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The pick: Broncos -8.5

This is maybe the squarest play on the Week 1 board, but I’m not going to get too cute here. The New Orleans Saints just went through the least inspiring quarterback battle that I can remember, with Spencer Rattler beating out rookie Tyler Shough for the job. This came after a so-so summer for Rattler, who finished with an 86.9 passer rating. That’s certainly an improvement from the 70.4 rating he posted in seven appearances last year, but he made that “jump” against vanilla defenses in the preseason. What happens when defenses start to truly scheme against him? I expect we see a quarterback who looks more like the one we saw in 2024, who went 0-6 as the starter. 

As for Arizona, they are a favorable team to back on the road, particularly with Kyler Murray under center. In his career, Murray is 25-12-2 ATS (.676) on the road, which is the second-best cover rate by a starting quarterback since 1970. 

Projected score: Cardinals 23, Saints 16
The pick: Cardinals -6.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN/ABC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The NFC North has garnered a lot of attention in recent days, particularly with the blockbuster that landed the Green Bay Packers Micah Parsons. Has that move shifted the balance of power in the division? Maybe. But I still think it’s anyone’s for the taking. I remain high on both of these teams, but Chicago has me intrigued. They already possessed an immensely talented quarterback in Caleb Williams, and the situation around him has vastly improved. He has better coaching with Ben Johnson at the helm, and the Bears have completely rebuilt the interior of the offensive line to better protect him. With those two additions, I think we see more of that talent that made Williams the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, beginning with this matchup. 

I’ve been on record saying that the Vikings are arguably the best-equipped team to usher in a quarterback like J.J. McCarthy. Between a stout defense, elite offensive weapons, and a stellar head coach in Kevin O’Connell, it should greatly help speed his development along. But making him a road favorite against a divisional opponent seems a bit rich at this stage. McCarthy’s last meaningful snap came back during his days at Michigan in the College Football Playoff National Championship. And he’s expected to now enter Soldier Field and pull out a road win? Again, feels rich. Oh, and the Vikings are 0-6 in their last six road prime-time games. 

Projected score: Bears 24, Vikings 23
The pick: Bears +1.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Rest of the bunch

Panthers at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Jaguars -3.5

Bengals at Browns
Projected score: Bengals 30, Browns 19
The pick: Bengals -5.5

Dolphins at Colts
Projected score: Dolphins 26, Colts 23
The pick: Dolphins +1

Giants at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 30, Giants 20
The pick: Commanders -6

Buccaneers at Falcons
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
The pick: Buccaneers -1

49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 24, 49ers 21
The pick: Seahawks +1.5

Lions at Packers
Projected score: Lions 27, Packers 23
The pick: Lions +2.5

Texans at Rams
Projected score: Rams 23, Texans 21
The pick: Texans +3

Ravens at Bills
Projected score: Ravens 27, Bills 24
The pick: Ravens +1.5