The most important position in sports returns to the spotlight with the Week 1 NFL schedule showcasing 13 games on Sunday. Quarterback props are one of the most popular player props in every NFL week when online sports betting, and plenty of the best take the field on Sunday, including the reigning NFL passing yards champion. Joe Burow led the NFL in passing yards last season (4,918) and the model projects his arm to get off to another strong start. The Bengals open the season against the Cleveland Browns, and Burrow’s over/under is set for 263.5 passing yards, according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds. He averaged 289.3 passing yards per game last season, leading the SportsLine Projection Model to back Burrow Over 263.5 passing yards in its Week 1 NFL prop picks. Burrow and the Bengals battle the Browns in an in-state rivalry beginning at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. 

Targeting NFL player props is one way to approach Week 1 NFL betting at online sports betting sites. With NFL props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your Week 1 NFL picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest FanDuel promo code, where new users receive $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. 

Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Now, the model has revealed its top Week 1 NFL QB prop picks: 

Best Week 1 NFL player prop picks:

Joe Burrow, Bengals, Over 263.5 passing yards (-114)Justin Fields, Jets, Over 173.5 passing yards (-115)CJ Stroud, Texans, Under 234.5 passing yards (-113)

Parlay these picks for +592 odds with a DraftKings promo code, where you can get $300 in bonus bets, as well as Over $200 off Sunday NFL Ticket on a $5 bet: (odds subject to change)

Joe Burrow, Bengals, Over 263.5 passing yards (-114)

Burrow went Over this total in nine of his last 15 starts, as after a slowing start to the season, Burrow proved to be the NFL’s top pure passer with a league-leading 4,918 passing yards. There’s no denying the Bengals, and specifically Burrow, have been slow starters in recent NFL seasons. However, Burrow has dealt with offseason injuries and didn’t play in the preseason the majority of those years, and neither of those is the case this season. Off a healthy offseason and preseason with time to shake off the rust, the model projects Burrow to be in midseason form from Week 1.

The model projects Burrow for 295 passing yards against the Browns, more than 30 yards over his over/under at FanDuel. The latest FanDuel promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins. 

Justin Fields, Jets, Over 173.5 passing yards (-115)

Fields makes his Jets debut in Week 1, as the tandem of Fields and head coach Aaron Glenn looks to turn around a franchise with the longest postseason drought in American sports. Before they can begin on those lofty goals, the Jets need to focus on winning Week 1, which comes against a familiar face in Aaron Rodgers. Much is made about Rodgers going against his former team, but Justin Fields is also in a similar situation, as the Steelers benched Fields for Russell Wilson despite Fields’ 4-2 record. Fields should be motivated to prove his ability as a franchise’s QB1.

Fields had a 312-yard passing performance in one of his six starts last year, so although he’s thought of as a dual-threat with a stronger running upside than passing, he can air the ball as well. Fields was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and this may be his last chance to prove himself as a starter. The SportsLine model expects him to start well, projecting 207 passing yards in Week 1. Caesars Sportsbooks lists his over/under at 173.5 passing yards, which is lower than other betting sites, making this the place to play Fields against the Steelers. Use the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code CBS20X for new users to get 100% profit boosts to potentially double their winnings 20 times after a $1 bet.

CJ Stroud, Texans, Under 234.5 passing yards (-113)

After one of the strongest rookie seasons in NFL history, including leading the entire league in passing yards per game (273.9) in 2023, Stroud’s average fell by more than 50 yards last season, averaging 219.2 passing yards per game. Houston dealt with injured receivers throughout the season, and the wide receiver room still won’t be at full health to begin this season. Tank Dell (knee) remains out to start the 2025 NFL season and the Texans will rely on younger options this fall, which could lead to a slower start for the passing game as chemistry develops.

The Texans open against the Rams, who ranked 11th in passing yards allowed per game last season. Los Angeles allowed 211.4 passing yards per game last year. Stroud averaged only 190.1 passing yards in nine road games last season as Houston opens in LA. The model projects Stroud for 226 passing yards, and DraftKings offers Stroud Under 234.5 yards at -115 odds. With the latest DraftKings promo code, new users can receive $300 in bonus bets instantly, plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

Want more Week 1 NFL picks?

You’ve seen the model’s NFL picks for some popular quarterback props for Week 1. Now, get NFL Week 1 projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 1 NFL game, including Steelers vs. Jets, Lions vs. Packers and Ravens vs. Bills. Finally, SportsLine expert Mike Tierney, who is 15-7 (+749) over his last 22 NFL picks, has locked in his top Week 1 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.

The model has also built a five-leg Week 1 NFL parlay that would pay 25-1. Check out the model’s Week 1 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.