The bond markets are looking nervous. Prices fell – pushing up long-term interest rates – for much of last week, before weak US jobs figures on Friday led to a rally. This is because they fuelled expectations of a US interest rate cut this month.
Before that, yields on long-dated UK bonds had climbed to their highest level since 1997 as investors worry about the state of the British economy. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, has to plug an estimated £25 billion gap between spending and revenue in November’s budget against a backdrop of anaemic growth.
Long-dated French bond yields rose to their highest level since 2009 as the government edges closer to collapse amid political paralysis on how to tackle an unsustainable budget deficit. And in the US , long-term interest rates on government debt had risen to multi- year highs as investors focused on the mounting budget deficit.
Donald Trump’s ongoing attempts to undermine the independence of the US Federal Reserve and potentially trillions in unfunded tax cuts over the next four years are stoking market jitters. And few doubt that more bouts of nervousness lie ahead as investors worry about budgetary pressures in many major economies.
So far, Irish bond yields have remained relatively stable. Ireland has posted healthy budget surpluses over the last few years and the State’s debt stands at a manageable 68 per cent of national income. However, a report published on Friday by Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe showed that a significant €77 billion in Irish bonds must be refinanced over the next five years. In turn, this will be replaced by more expensive borrowing.
A wider bond market crisis internationally is not inevitable, but there are clear signs for caution. Against this backdrop, Ireland needs to fight to retain its privileged budgetary position. The Government faces spending pressures and awkward choices. But they are nowhere near as difficult as those faced by France and the UK. In nervous times, staying out of the international budgetary spotlight is a vital strategy.