Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has trimmed its term deposit rates further. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

COMATOSED NOW BUT LIFE IN 2026
Housing market to remain subdued this year before house price rises next year, Westpac economist Kelly Eckhold says.

DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY
Cotality says supply of housing has overtaken population growth in some parts of NZ, contributing to downward pressure on property values.

ONE IN EIGHT TO HAVE INDIAN ETHNICITY
In just over 20 years, about a third of our population are likely to identify with Asian ethnicities, up from 19% in 2023, according to projections released by Stats NZ today. Within the broad Asian grouping, those identifying with Indian ethnicities are projected to increase from 7% in 2023 to around 12% in 2048. Over the same period, those identifying with Chinese ethnicities are projected to increase from 6% to around 8%. All ethnicities are aging, but recent migrants will have the fastest expansion of our under 15 age groups.

BROAD RISE OF RENEWABLES SAVES THE DAY
MBIE’s Q2-2025 energy review shows that hydro generation was down -6.8% from the June 2024 quarter, with lower hydro storage in April contributing to this. But that vulnerability was covered by strong rises in other renewable sources. Geothermal production was up +12.6% on the same basis, wind generation was up +17.6%, there was a 48.7% increase in generation from solar. Gas and coal generation down -0.9% and -38% respectively. So the share of electricity generation from renewable sources increased 2.7 percentage points to 84.1%. However that is lower than the 88% in 2023 when hydro was not under stress.

NZX50 WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% in a weakish Thursday session. But it is up +0.5% over the past five working days. It is up +1.0% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.5% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a full -1.0% today so far. Ryman, Summerset, SkyCity casino, and Serko fall while the NZX, Mainfreight, Turners, and Freightways all rise

BASICALLY STABLE
As expected, Japan’s producer prices rose +2.7% in the year to August, up from a marginally revised +2.5% increase in the previous month. This data doesn’t really add stress or new factors for Japan. A year earlier their PPI rose at a 2.6% rate.

AUSSIES EXPECT SWELLING INFLATION
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 4.7% in the September survey by the Melbourne Institute, from August’s five-month low of 3.9%. The increase came as stronger domestic demand raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressures, with household consumption proving resilient in Q2-2025. This is the sort of news the RBA will not welcome. No rate cut is priced in for September 30 but one is for November 4, although that might get reassessed now.

SHARP TURN DOWN
New independent analysis shows that the long-held view that American demographics would remain very positive to the end of the century have suddenly turned. Now US deaths will exceed births by 2031, far faster than expected. And the deaths will rise quicker until 2055 when they will match immigration. And these estimates are before the Kennedy/Trump health mistakes which will undoubtedly speed up deaths. And the Trump heavy-handed immigration crackdowns that will likely mean the immigration assumptions are far too optimistic. If demographics are destiny, the destiny of the US looks grim and we can no longer hold the assumption that it will be a major power by 2100. That is a sharp change from the demographic outlook just a few years ago.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD AT SHORT END
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today at the one year term but lower and flatter for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.99% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is also up +3 bps at 1.82%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps from yesterday at 4.32%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +2 bps at 4.33% at the end of Wednesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.05%.

EQUITIES MIXED, LOCALLY LOWER
The local equity market is down -0.6% in Thursday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.0%. Hong Kong down -0.7% with Shanghai up +0.8% in an unusual divergence. Singapore has opened unchanged. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +0.3%.

OIL FIRMISH AGAIN
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc at just over US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price just on US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
There are few trades today but the price has ticked up to $58. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD JUST OFF ITS HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$3 from this time yesterday at US$3634/oz and off its record high.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.7 and little-changed from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$113,855 and up +2.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been again modest just under +/- 1.3%.

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