Find fantasy basketball gems with our guide to players poised to outperform their draft positions, from breakout stars to deep sleepers.
Searching for league-winning value in your fantasy basketball draft? This guide is for you. We’re identifying players at every stage who are poised to outperform their draft position, from potential All-Star breakouts with an ADP under 100 to standard sleepers and deep cuts who could provide a massive return.
ADP data from Fantrax
Breakouts (ADP<100)Brandon Miller, Hornets 
ADP: 64.2
Miller’s 2024-25 season was cut short by season-ending wrist surgery, but he was putting together a fantastic sophomore campaign. I’m buying him as someone who could emerge as an All-Star in his third season — something that wouldn’t be surprising given his pedigree of being the No. 2 overall pick in 2023. The forward has already proved he’s an excellent shot-maker and can handle significant scoring volume. He’s also a dynamic defender who can rack up both steals and blocks.
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Ausar Thompson, Pistons 
ADP: 94.1
Thompson got off to a slow start last season while recovering from a blood clot issue, but put things together toward the end of the year. He probably doesn’t have the upside of his twin brother Amen, but it’s not far off. Ausar is already one of the league’s best all-around defenders and has a high offensive floor due to his freak athleticism.
Alex Sarr, Wizards 
ADP: 78.4
Sarr is already a strong rim protector who averaged 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes last season, not to mention a solid 0.9 steals. The offensive efficiency was poor as a rookie, but he was taking tough shots for a bad team. I’m anticipating easier shots, improved patience and refined skill in his second year. Even if that doesn’t develop as quickly as I hope, simply getting more than the 27.1 minutes per game he averaged last year will do a lot for his fantasy potential.
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Payton Pritchard, Celtics 
ADP: 86.7
Pritchard has developed into a fantastic offensive player and one of the league’s best knockdown three-point shooters. The gap-year Celtics will need a bigger boost from him, as Jaylen Brown and Derrick White can’t do everything. Anfernee Simons‘ presence makes things more complicated than they should be, but the team seems far from committed to him.
Immanuel Quickley, Raptors 
ADP: 69.7
Injuries and poor team play derailed Quickley’s season (and the Raptors’ as a whole). But he’s one of the NBA’s more underrated offensive players. He has good size for a point guard and can get to the free-throw line in addition to drilling threes. I expect him to have the best year of his career, even if Toronto’s usage situation is a little murky.
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Standard Sleepers (ADP>100)Kevin Porter Jr., Bucks 
ADP: 134.6
For better or worse, Porter is projected to be Milwaukee’s starting point guard, and potentially the team’s No. 2 option. He’s made strides as a defender and has proven capable of handling an NBA offense, but his shot can be inconsistent.
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TJ McConnell, Pacers 
ADP: 139.1
We know who McConnell is at this point. The only question there is for this season is how many minutes he’ll get. His career high is 26.3 MPG (back in 2017). If he sees that many, he should easily be worth a top-100 pick.
Santi Aldama, Grizzlies 
ADP: 132.4
Aldama has expanded and developed his game year after year and has turned himself into a versatile two-way player who can handle a surprising amount of offensive responsibility. Memphis may need it from him this season, as Desmond Bane is gone and Zach Edey is starting the year injured.
Matas Buzelis, Bulls 
ADP: 108.7
Arguably the most-hyped sleeper this season. Buzelis slipped in the NBA Draft due to shooting concerns, which dissolved with a 36.1 3P% and 81.5 FT%. In addition, he proved to be already one of the best rim-protecting forwards in the NBA. The next step will be developing as someone who can handle the ball and make plays.
Brandin Podziemski, Warriors 
ADP: 117.2
Podziemski struggled to begin 2024-25 but got into form eventually. He’s a well-rounded player on both ends of the floor, with the main sticking point being good-but-not-great efficiency. He either needs to become a knockdown three-point shooter or find ways to score around the basket better — the former being more realistic.
Deep Cuts (ADP>150)Sam Hauser, Celtics
ADP: 167.1
Hauser is the human embodiment of a three-point shot. He’s also not a terrible defender. I don’t think he’s going to add much to his game, but more threes and more minutes should be there. He made 3.9 triples per 36 minutes last year.
Reed Sheppard, Rockets 
ADP: 287.9
It was a pretty bad rookie season for Sheppard following an electric Summer League — and he had another great Summer League in 2025. I think he managed to show off a lot of what made him intriguing as a prospect despite relatively poor results. I would not be shocked if he stepped into a sixth-man role as a sophomore.
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks 
ADP: 147.3
Risacher is like a generic draft prospect in NBA 2K that has a C+ rating for every skill. He can do stuff, but also…can he? Risacher is someone who passes the eye test more than he stuffs the stat sheet. I don’t mind taking a chance on him late in drafts because he’s athletic, fluid, and smart.
Kyle Kuzma, Bucks
ADP: 144.8
I’m a Kuzma pessimist as much as the next guy, but he can’t fall this far if you’re in a points league. For better or worse, he handles the ball a lot and tries stuff, and he’s going to play 30+ minutes per game. A ringing endorsement — I know.
Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies
ADP: 149.2
Wells had a better-than-expected rookie season and has interesting potential as a 3-and-D wing. With Desmond Bane gone, there’s more usage available on the Grizzlies if Wells can capitalize.
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