Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford. Who you got?
Simple question, right? On one side, you have Canelo, a giant of the industry who has faced a laundry list of future boxing Hall of Famers, and has dominated outside of a handful of losses and close calls; on the other, the undefeated Crawford, arguably the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world today, making a big jump in weight to slay said giant.
It’s a matchup that feels too close to call, but that hasn’t stopped the MMA Fighting crew of Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew from offering their best guesses. Even better, joining us to figure out this puzzle is Bad Left Hook’s Scott Christ, whose boxing expertise is sorely needed on this panel.
Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images
Christ: Terence Crawford’s never fought at 168, and it’s a lot to ask of someone whose first world titles came at 135. As much as you can scout a fight with this many unknowns, you can predict Crawford to have a significant advantage in mobility and speed moving around the ring. Those areas have increasingly become weaknesses for Canelo Alvarez. If Crawford can land clean, and keep the range he wants, Canelo could struggle, as Alvarez just doesn’t cut off the ring the way he did when younger. This could also frustrate Canelo, and a frustrated fighter makes mistakes.
These are both, obviously, high-level, experienced, and calculated professional boxers. But game plans on both sides have to be adjusted from the norm. Canelo has to be better at cutting off the ring than we saw in his last fight, and he can’t let Crawford get into a comfortable groove, or, round by round, the fight will get away from him. And Crawford has to avoid getting into the phone booth with Alvarez at all costs. He can’t expect to be the physically stronger man, and even if he can tie up before Canelo starts unleashing hell to the body, getting into scrappy tussles could sap Crawford’s stamina and leave him increasingly vulnerable as the fight wears on.
Crawford has proven himself so good, for so long, that I can’t write him off, even with Canelo holding some obvious advantages. The fight has genuine intrigue; this is no circus matchup, but what I fear more than a blowout is a check-casher where neither guy’s heart is totally in it, resulting in a ho-hum fight where risk is eschewed from an early stage, and everyone is just happy to go 12 rounds that resemble glorified sparring. I’m picking a winner with the idea that it won’t be like that, but that’s a far bigger concern (and likelihood) than Canelo thrashing Crawford in short order.
Official prediction: Canelo by split decision
Lee: Hey, Bud, remember how good you were in the Errol Spence Jr. fight? That, times 20, please.
Skill-wise, it’s difficult to separate Canelo and Crawford, but Crawford is a classic underdog in this scenario just based on him being the man going up. Canelo can afford to make a few mistakes here and there, trusting that his size and power will allow him to bully Crawford when the time calls for it. Crawford has to be close to flawless, especially if this goes to the judges, because at that point it’s anybody’s guess how they’ll score it.
I confess, I’m enamored by Crawford’s technical mastery, adaptability, and tricky combinations, all of which he’ll need to topple Canelo. This is all working under the assumption that he’s getting a top-tier—if not the best—version of Canelo that we can expect at this stage of the Mexican star’s career. As uninspired as Canelo is at times, he still has a ton of power and will gladly trade punches with Crawford if the smaller man stays in close for too long.
On this day, I think Canelo’s poor run of form gets the best of him, and he leaves one opening too many, allowing Crawford to convincingly take rounds and establish himself as the true face of boxing in North America.
Official prediction: Crawford by unanimous decision
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Martin: It feels like if this fight were happening at Crawford’s natural weight, that he would probably be a solid favorite, even against an all-time great like Canelo. Crawford is arguably the most technical, nasty boxer in the sport today after dismantling all of his competition, including his lopsided beatdown of Errol in 2023. But Crawford is giving up size and power to fight at 168 pounds, although that may not really matter if his opponent already has one foot out the door when it comes to his career.
It’s safe to say Alvarez hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his past few fights, and that question about him losing a step legitimately opens the door for Crawford to take advantage. At his best, Alvarez was the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport, but it feels like those days are effectively behind him, and lately, he’s just been happy enough to eke out victories rather than demolishing his competition.
Maybe this matchup makes all the difference, and Canelo performs like a man possessed, but given his recent run compared to Crawford, he might be in for a tough night at the office. Crawford should be crafty enough to frustrate and hurt Alvarez over several rounds to secure the win, although it’s tough to imagine he’ll score a knockout.
Official prediction: Crawford by split decision
Meshew: I hope I’m wrong, but this feels like a lot of wish-casting from my colleagues. Yes, Terence Crawford is probably the best boxer in the world right now, but he’s also smol, and I believe we’re heading for some big bank take little bank action here.
As Scott sagely pointed out, Crawford is fighting at 168 pounds for the first time. That’s a far cry from the 147 pounds he primarily competed at for the past decade. Considering he didn’t look gangbusters against Israil Madrimov at 154 pounds, I struggle to think an additional 14 pounds is going to be super beneficial for Bud.
On top of that, I don’t see how Crawford wins. Yes, he can try and dance around the ring and stay in motion, picking his shots, but even if Canelo isn’t the ring-cutter he once was, that is still a tough row to hoe against a much larger man, with the craft and advantages of Canelo. If this were Crawford against a random super middleweight, sure, but this is Crawford against one of the best fighters in the world. And to make matters worse, it’s not like Crawford can play for a knockout. Canelo has a legendary chin, so Crawford has to win 7 rounds in Las Vegas against a future Hall of Famer who has major size and power advantages over him. Yeesh.
Lastly — and perhaps this is cynical — Canelo is clearly in the “prize fighting” stage of his career, where he is only going to take the biggest money fights with the least risk. Well, losing to a man three weight classes smaller than you is a pretty big black mark on the old resume, so Canelo clearly believes this is a fight he is overwhelmingly likely to win, and that gives me confidence that it is.
Ultimately, what I think is going to happen is that Canelo will leverage his natural physical edges to pull ahead of Crawford. Even if Bud has some success early, Canelo will realize he can’t be hurt and trundle into Crawford, forcing more of a brawl. Fortunately, Bud will not be content to lose a lackluster decision, and as the fight drags on and Crawford realizes he’s behind, Omaha’s own will do the only option left to him: stand and deliver. Unfortunately, that’s going to result in Canelo cracking him and proving once again that weight classes matter (unless you’re Harry Greb).
Official prediction: Canelo by KO, Round 11