The king of prospect projections was Mark Messier. The Edmonton Oilers drafted him into the NHL based on a single WHA goal in 1978-79 and a fight that same season against Oilers captain Dennis Sobchuk. Messier was playing for the Cincinnati Stingers at age 17, while Sobchuk was 24 and more mature physically. According to reports, there were 12 punches thrown in the fight — all by Messier. Coaching for the Oilers that night? Glen Sather, who remembered the name. Edmonton chose Messier in the third round of the 1979 draft. The rest is history.

Fast forward to modern Edmonton, and the organization needs talent to arrive from any and all prospect pipelines and needs that talent right now.

In his book “The Road to Hockeytown,” former NHL general manager Jim Devellano wrote, “We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.”

Stan Bowman is the Oilers’ general manager of record for the signings that have taken place in the last calendar year. He also played a part in the hiring of prospect guru Kalle Larsson in the spring of 2025 (via Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic). The club has a strong analytics department and an aggressive procurement record since Bowman’s arrival. The tools are there.

What we are about to see is the first blush results from the new approach. We don’t know how much success Bowman’s template will deliver, but we can already see some differences. What do the early days of procurement tell us about the new direction?

Older players (25-plus)

Among the group of European free agents signed in the decade before Bowman’s arrival, there were several players who were useful, mostly in depth roles. The biggest name, signed by Peter Chiarelli, was Finnish goaltender Mikko Koskinen, who was 30 when he arrived. He played in 164 regular-season and seven playoff games with Edmonton. At the lower end, names like Gaetan Haas (arrived at 27, played 92 NHL games) and Joakim Nygard (26, played 42 games), both signed by Ken Holland; he also signed Vincent Desharnais to an NHL deal while he was playing for the Oilers’ affiliate in Bakersfield after age 25. All three Holland signings were destined for depth roles.

Bowman’s style seems to fit the Koskinen model with players 25 and over. His signings in this area of free agency so far include SweHL scoring champion David Tomasek, plus the defenceman who led Finland’s Liiga in points (Atro Leppänen). This doesn’t guarantee success; speed issues or injury problems could arise once these men are playing North American hockey. It’s also possible they’re not good enough players to crack the starting lineup.

What is true is this: Bowman is aiming higher than Holland in his European signings over 25, and has more in common with Chiarelli’s Koskinen signing.

Younger players (20-24)

The older players were mostly from Europe, but the younger group includes college and Canadian juniors. It’s a large list.

Chiarelli’s most significant signings in this age group were college men (Matt Benning and Drake Caggiula, both 22 in their first pro seasons). There was a host of others, including Patrick Russell. Chiarelli did venture into CHL signings (Braden Christoffer), but with little success.

Holland mostly eschewed this part of team building, but did sign many players to AHL-only deals. James Hamblin signed one after his WHL career and would eventually earn an NHL contract. Hamblin, along with Desharnais, represents a unique procurement pipeline (AHL-to-NHL contracts) but also exposed a flaw in Holland’s system. Edmonton was more than willing to wait for the high-end talent to sign elsewhere and then grabbed players who were willing to sign AHL deals. The Benning and Caggiula level talent did not arrive in Edmonton during Holland’s time. It helped impact what is now a shallow system.

Now and in the future

In the early days of the Bowman era, the Oilers appear to be more aggressive in looking for talent. The club is also looking to sign players who have spiked offensively and may have turned a corner as prospects in the last 12 months. Here are four examples:

Viljami Marjala (22) posted 44 assists in Liiga last year, a stunning total for a young, unsigned player. He was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres and went unsigned. It’s possible Buffalo overlooked the talent, and Marjala is young enough to have an NHL career if he develops with the Bakersfield Condors.
Quinn Hutson (23) had a strong season in a two-way role for Boston University (Hockey East). He was pursued by NHL teams, with the Oilers winning the player. In this way, he resembles Caggiula and Benning from a decade ago.
Damien Carfagna (22) spiked offensively in his final season with Ohio State (Big Ten). He already owns a strong reputation as a coverage defender and has terrific wheels.
Josh Samanski (23) is a big centre who spiked offensively during his fourth season in the DEL (German league). He’s still young enough to make the NHL and have a career if he can deliver offence and help outscore in the AHL.

The Bowman plan seems to involve high-performance players from European leagues in the 25-plus group, and players who have hit their stride recently while also being young enough to thrive in the AHL before 25.

What does it all mean?

Several of the young names mentioned performed well on Friday night against the Flames. Carfagna was a revelation on defence, with his speed and good decisions with and without the puck. Marjala and Hutson scored, and both men were impressive with their play. Samanski did some good things, too, although he was a little shy offensively compared to the others.

The odds of NHL success for even one of these men are not high. However, the Oilers as an organization appear to be shopping in more promising areas. For an organization badly in need of young players who can push for NHL employment, this is a worthy experiment during a time when draft picks are dealt by the dozen at each trade deadline.

(Photo of Quinn Hutson: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)