Football betting tips: Champions League

17:45 – Arsenal vs Athletic Club

1pt Arsenal to win to nil at 9/4 (William Hill)

0.5pt No first scorer at 9/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

20:00 kick-offs

1pt Arda Guler to score anytime in Real Madrid vs Marseille at 7/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

1pt Arda Guler 1+ assist in Real Madrid vs Marseille at 29/10 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

0.5pt A red card in Real Madrid vs Marseille at 13/2 (Sky Bet)

2.5pts Benfica win to nil vs Qarabag at 37/40 (BetVictor)

1pt Santiago Mourino to be carded in Tottenham vs Villarreal at 10/3 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal

Jake Osgathorpe

Don’t be surprised if by the end of the game on Tuesday night the chant of ‘1-0 to the Arsenal‘ is being sung by the away fans in Bilbao.

Mikel Arteta’s side are renowned for their defence-first approach, or lack of risk-taking at least, and that led them to the semi-finals of the Champions League last season despite being ravaged by injuries.

I’ve already backed them to win the whole tournament this season due to them being the best defensive side in Europe, and that can come to the fore in their opener against Athletic Bilbao, where the 9/4 about ARSENAL WIN TO NIL appeals.

In the league phase last season, the Gunners conceded just three goals in eight matches, allowing only 5.8 xGA – an incredibly low average of 0.73 per game – while away in the Premier League last term they let up just 0.75 per game.

So far this season they’ve looked tight yet again, while Bilbao have looked toothless in attack thus far. Since an opening day 3-2 win, the Basque side have generated just 2.90 non-pen xGF in three matches, including two at San Mames, the most recent of which saw them lose 1-0 to Alaves.

They will also be without their best player Nico Williams through injury, so it’s hard to see them scoring here.

This Arsenal team will likely find a way to grab a goal or two, probably from a set-piece, but we should expect a tight, low-margin game given this is one of the Gunners two tough away games on paper.

But, just in case they don’t find a way through, with Bilbao defensively solid (conceded just 13 in 19 home league games last season and five in seven home Europa League games), we’ll have a small saver on NO FIRST SCORER at 9/1.

Taking this instead of the correct score 0-0 means we get paid out as a winner if the only goal (or goals) in the game is an own goal, just like Bilbao’s defeat last weekend.

Somewhat coincidentally, their opening game of last season’s Champions League league phase was a goalless draw away at Atalanta in a match that preceded a meeting with Manchester City – just like this one does.

Odds correct at 1435 BST (15/09/25)

Real Madrid vs Marseille

Jake Osgathorpe

Real Madrid get their UCL campaign underway with a home game against a defensively vulnerable Marseille team, led by Roberto De Zerbi.

The French side have two league wins under their belt this season but both came against newly promoted sides, with their two defeats coming against established Ligue 1 sides, losing 1-0 at Rennes despite playing against 10-men for over an hour before going down by the same scoreline at Lyon – a game in which they conceded 3.04 xGA.

Los Blancos, who have won four from four, should win comfortably, and the man that could be at the heart of it is ARDA GULER, who is relishing his role in Xabi Alonso’s side. Guler is playing in the number 10 position in Jude Bellingham’s absence and has been excellent.

In four league starts he’s registered two goals and one assist, but more impressively he’s averaging 0.49 xG and 0.37 xA per 90. Those figures are extremely good, and for context, last season Bellingham averaged 0.41 xG and 0.16 xA, and the season before 0.43 xG and 0.17 xA.

Backing Guler TO SCORE ANYTIME and 1+ ASSIST as separate bets appeals, with this preferred to backing him in the ‘to score or assist’ market, as there is every chance he does both on Tuesday night.

We’ll also have a small bet on A RED CARD IN THE MATCH at 13/2 given both sides’ early season records and the referee appointment.

Real Madrid have seen a red card in two of their four league games so far this season, while two of their six Club World Cup games under Xabi Alonso also saw a red card – that’s four in 10 under the new manager.

Three of Marseille’s matches this term have seen a red card, while their start to last season was also very red-card heavy. Six of their opening nine league matches saw a red card last season, so De Zerbi certainly has them riled up and ready to go when the campaign kicks-off.

Let’s hope that continues, and with referee Irfan Peljto, who brandished five reds in 17 last season including one for Real Madrid at Arsenal, there’s a decent chance.

Odds correct at 1435 BST (15/09/25)

Benfica vs Qarabag

Jake Osgathorpe

This should be a pretty straightforward game for BENFICA, who can WIN TO NIL against a very poor Qarabag side.

Bruno Lage’s side welcome the minnows to Lisbon having been excellent defensively in Champions League qualifying, keeping four clean sheets in four matches against Nice and Fenerbache, allowing just 2.42 xGA in that quartet of games (0.61 per game).

It could be argued that Qarabag are a worst side than both of those teams, and the Azerbaijani outfit definitely showed as much in last season’s Europa League.

The finished bottom of the 36 team league table, winning just one and losing the rest, including three of their four away games to nil. They made it to this stage of the competition thanks to a kind draw (Shelbourne, Shkendija, Ferencvaros) and some good fortune, so this step up will likely be too much, especially on the road.

Odds correct at 1435 BST (15/09/25)

Tottenham vs Villarreal

Jimmy ‘The Punt’

Villarreal’s right back SANTIAGO MOURINO doesn’t mind getting stuck in.

He has picked cards in half of his four La Liga appearances this term, averaged 4.3 tackles and 1.8 fouls a game.

It is nothing new though. Across 70 league appearances in the Spanish top flight, La Liga 2 and the Uruguayan top flight, he has picked up 23Y and 1R cards. That is a career card per 90 average of 0.39 which makes his price of 10/3 for him TO BE CARDED in North London simply too big.

The full back is expected to make his Champions League debut under the watch of Rade Obrenovic, a referee who dishes out five cards per game in this competition.

Odds correct at 1725 BST (15/09/25)

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