While the prospect of Marc Marquez winning the 2025 MotoGP title after he moved to Ducati’s factory team last off-season was a storyline we all saw coming, few would have predicted that the next-best Ducati rider – and the highest-scoring Italian – would be anyone other than Francesco Bagnaia.

And with good reason.

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Since the 2021 season, when he took his first MotoGP victory, no rider has won more races than Bagnaia’s 30; for the past four years, he’s either finished runner-up (2021, 2024) in the world championship, or won it (2022, 2023). He’s been Ducati’s shining light, its most prolific rider in a six-year span that has seen Ducati sweep the constructors’ championship since 2020, and the hero Italian fans have craved since his mentor, Valentino Rossi, retired at the end of 2021.

Season 2025, though, has been brutal.

After last weekend’s San Marino Grand Prix, Bagnaia has won just once – in Austin when Marquez crashed out of a commanding lead – in 32 starts across sprint races and Grands Prix. He’s trailed Alex Marquez – who is riding a 2024-spec Ducati for the satellite Gresini Ducati team – in the standings for the entire season, the gap between second and third in the standings now a seemingly insurmountable 93 points.

With six rounds remaining, Bagnaia has already been mathematically eliminated from championship contention, a predicament that would have been barely believable when the season began in Thailand in March.

What’s worse for Bagnaia is that compatriot Marco Bezzecchi – a close friend who has also grown up as a Rossi protégé – is on the march.

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In his first year with Aprilia after crossing from Ducati last off-season and after he managed just 38 points in the opening six rounds, the 26-year-old has flown ever since he won the British Grand Prix at Silverstone in late May.

In the past 10 rounds, Bezzecchi has outscored Bagnaia by 74 points and taken nine podiums to four, and now trails his decorated countryman by only eight points in the championship standings.

Last weekend at Misano in Italy – where Bagnaia has been downright dominant in previous years – he qualified eighth and failed to score a single point, fading to 13th in the sprint race before crashing out of the Grand Prix nine laps in.

Bezzecchi, on the other hand, qualified on pole, won the sprint and gave Marquez everything he could handle in Sunday’s Grand Prix, finishing just 0.568secs behind the Spanish great after 27 tense laps. The Misano crowd had a new darling, Bezzecchi revelling in the expectation and feeding off the adulation.

What’s gone so right for Bezzecchi, and why has Bagnaia sunk deeper even when it feels like he’d already hit rock-bottom?

How are Ducati processing the rider who was their ace becoming increasingly irrelevant as Marquez sweeps all before him on the same bike?

And what role does Marquez himself play in the relationship with his completely lost teammate on one hand, and an ascendant rider now in another camp who he’s had a poisonous relationship with in the recent past?

After 32 races in 2025, Bagnaia has won just once – in Texas when Marquez crashed out of the lead. (Photo by Mirco Lazzari gp / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)Source: AFP

FROM BAD TO WORSE FOR BROKEN BAGNAIA

The previous (and only) time Bagnaia hadn’t scored a single point at an event before last weekend’s home-race disaster at Misano? France in May, where a crash early in the sprint preceded being taken out by former Ducati teammate Enea Bastianini on lap one of the Grand Prix the next day, a rain-affected race stunningly won by home favourite Johann Zarco.

Le Mans, though, is the data point of where things started to go wrong for Bagnaia, and much more right for Bezzecchi. Even after Bezzecchi won the following Grand Prix at Silverstone, Bagnaia’s lead over his compatriot was still 55 points, more than an entire race weekend’s worth of points. But it was the beginning of a trend.

From rounds 6-16, Bezzecchi – still adjusting to Aprilia after his first three MotoGP seasons were spent riding for Ducati – has outscored Bagnaia 191-117, and finished on nine podiums (sprints and Grands Prix) to Bagnaia’s four.

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In the past four rounds alone, Bezzecchi has 59 more points than Bagnaia, a number that would have been far greater were it not for the luckless Bezzecchi being taken out twice in 24 hours at the Catalan Grand Prix, skittled by rookie Fermin Aldeguer in the sprint (which earned Aldeguer a long-lap penalty) and then being shoved off by serial offender Franco Morbidelli early in the Grand Prix the following day, Bezzecchi leaving Barcelona with his only zero-score round of the season.

As Marquez has thrived in the garage next door, Bagnaia has floundered. The late-braking mastery he showed on Ducati’s GP24 machine last season has completely disappeared with the GP25, which Bagnaia can’t – won’t – push to its limits.

Regarded as a more cerebral rider than many of his contemporaries, Bagnaia simply can’t get his head around what he’s routinely described as a “lack of front feeling” with the GP25, not trusting its ability to give him the fine touch he needs to ambush rivals on the brakes.

A lack of confidence what his bike is doing has acted as a mental block to simply accepting it isn’t entirely to his liking and living with its limitations after last year’s sweet-handling GP24 might have been the best bike of the modern era; Marquez, who never rode the GP24 after campaigning a year-old GP23 for Gresini last season, hasn’t longed for what he never raced, as Bagnaia has seemed to be doing for most of 2025.

Misano, for so long a happy hunting ground for Bagnaia, was the lowest low point yet.

Eighth on the grid was his worst at Misano since 2020, but an improvement on the horrendous 21st the round previously in Barcelona, his worst qualifying result in over three years. Bagnaia drifted to 13th place in the sprint, dropping 16 seconds to winner Bezzecchi in just 13 laps, and then crashed out of a nondescript seventh place in the Grand Prix a day later.

The sprint non-score was one thing – he’s scored just three points in the past five short-form races – but a DNF from a race place where he was making up the numbers at a track he’s bossed for years was confronting.

“My patience is running out,” Bagnaia said.

“This can’t be happening. We have to look at the data and understand what’s going on, someone has to explain it to me. I’m living a nightmare.

“It’s difficult … my effort is enormous, my head is strong. I will not lose confidence in my potential and in my team. We will continue to work, and one day we will return. I hope it will be soon.”

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Ducati’s top brass, who have been publicly supportive of the rider who propelled their rise back to the top of the sport for the first time since Casey Stoner’s 2007 world championship, sound increasingly exasperated.

“The situation is definitely delicate with ‘Pecco’ [Bagnaia], he’s struggling,” Ducati general manager Gigi Dall’Igna told Sky Italy in Misano.

“As I’ve said many times before, we’ll have to find a way out. I’ve lost patience too, as have Pecco’s fans. I think it’s normal to say these things when the results aren’t coming.”

“As we’ve said several times, we won’t give up, he won’t give up, we’ll find the right balance sooner or later,” Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi added, per motosprint.it.

“What he’s shown over the last seven years is something important. It’s true that we’re in a really difficult moment, but we’re sure that with the talent he has and the bike he has, we’ll get through it. There are long steps forward, and we must not take them all at once.”

Even Marquez, the newcomer into ‘Bagnaia’s team’ who has quickly made it his own, expressed some level of sympathy to his teammate’s plight.

“It’s the first time in his career that he’s been in this situation, but he has enough talent to come out of it, to come out of this hole,” Marquez said.

“I’m not the person to give advice to ‘Pecco’, because he has his team and his people around him. They have a lot of experience here and they will help him, but I want the best for Ducati, and for Ducati we need both riders there on the top, fighting for the top positions. It will be better to develop the bike for the future.

“I want to beat everyone, but I don’t want to see someone suffering like ‘Pecco’ right now. It’s something that is not easy for the riders, when you are in a difficult moment.”

On-track fights between Marquez and Bagnaia have been few and far between in 2025. (Photo by Tiziana FABI / AFP)Source: AFP

BEZZECCHI’S RISE, AND A ROCKY RELATIONSHIP REPAIRED

As Bagnaia has wilted, his good friend, compatriot and fellow Rossi brethren Bezzecchi has thrived. Unexpectedly, he’s now become the Italian rider Marquez has grown most wary of, much as a rider who has won as much as the 32-year-old has this season needs to be wary of anyone.

While winning the Grand Prix at a windswept Silverstone was where his so-so start to life at Aprilia began to turn around, the seeds of that surge first sprouted in the British Grand Prix sprint race 24 hours earlier, Bezzecchi tearing through the field from 11th on the grid to fourth and just six-tenths of a second from the podium in only 10 laps.

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It was the beginning of a trend at a time of turmoil for Aprilia, the factory desperate for good news after star off-season signing Jorge Martin competed in just one of the opening 12 rounds of the season after litany of injuries, his rehab coinciding with an ugly dispute with his new team after he tried to use a contract clause to trigger his exit.

Bezzecchi, for the first time in his career, was pushed into a position of responsibility and was forced to lead the team on track, and provide a development direction off it with Martin sidelined and trying to leave.

Aprilia’s CEO Massimo Rivola backed his rider and made it clear how much his input was being valued, his commitment appreciated. Bezzecchi grew demonstrably, a development that may have never come to light had Martin been racing and – understandably – setting the tone for the team as the reigning world champion.

After his near-perfect Misano weekend – only a mistake-free Marquez denied him a perfect 37-point haul of points at home – Bezzecchi was asked if his 76th premier-class start was his best yet.

“The [Silverstone] win obviously has a different taste, but in terms of overall performance and the mood of the weekend, it’s one of the best,” he said.

“Not the best, because when you win it’s much better, but one of the best anyway. Physically it was a tough race because this track is one of the toughest, and when you have such good grip conditions you can push all the race, all the laps for 27 laps is demanding. My legs were not live anymore …”.

Bezzecchi gave as good as he got in his race-long battle with Marquez at Misano. (Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP)Source: AFP

Marquez – who had held off a similarly-dogged Bezzecchi at Assen to win by under one second six races previously – was impressed. After he’d taken the lead on lap 12 when Bezzecchi ran wide at Turn 8, Marquez bided his time and kept the Italian under control before pulling the pin with three laps to go, setting the fastest lap of the race. It should have been the knockout punch, but Bezzecchi upped his own pace to go with him one lap later, Marquez just prevailing but being made to sweat.

“Marco was a super-tough opponent, congrats to him because being faster than ever in the final laps, he was replying in a very good way,” Marquez said.

“Both of us were pushing more than usual, the heart rate was super high the last few laps. I put all my cards on the table, but the reply from Marco was amazing.”

Seeing Marquez and Bezzecchi race cleanly – and respectfully – was quite the turnaround from the end of 2023, Bezzecchi’s best season before this one, and as Marquez’s troubled end to his mostly triumphant Honda stint neared.

In the final round in Valencia, the end of a season where the pair had engaged in gloves-off scraps several times, Marquez pushed Bezzecchi into a crash on the opening lap, and the Italian unloaded afterwards.

“It was very, very dirty,” Bezzecchi said.

“I think from the view from the TV you can see very well, but it’s Marquez so they [race stewards] don’t make anything [penalty] to him. When you make the other rider crash, at least [it’s] a f**king penalty. The race is 27 laps. If you make me crash on the third corner, I think you deserve a penalty. They never make nothing to him, because it’s Marquez, and he’s the dirtiest rider.”

Marquez wouldn’t even call Bezzecchi by name in response: “I will not lose a lot of time with this rider, because during this season he already push me out many times,” he shrugged.

Watching Bezzecchi and Marquez sitting beside one another in last weekend’s post-race press conference at Misano – Bezzecchi respectful, Marquez amused, their body language speaking volumes – showed how the dynamic has shifted.

“It’s normal when you fight to have some tough moments, and also I think I was more immature in the past compared to now,” Bezzecchi reflected.

“It was difficult … right now, for me it’s good. Marc is of course a rival so we are not best friends, but it’s like this between all the MotoGP riders. We have a good relationship in terms of respect to each other, and on track we can do good races.”

How sustainable that sentiment is remains to be seen if Bezzecchi goes from being a surprise challenger to Marquez in Grands Prix to a more permanent problem once the calendar flips to 2026. But it’s now a circumstance that warrants discussion.

It’s also – shockingly – more believable than the concept of Bagnaia being a threat to Marquez within the team he built back into a championship-winning squad for the first time in a generation.