Finding value in player props is one of the most consistent ways to beat the books. Each week, FTN highlights three props identified by our proprietary model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. Below, you’ll see the posted line, FTN’s projection, and the edge percentage, followed by context on why this prop makes sense. To see all the best props of the week, make sure you visit our prop tool.

All odds are per BetMGM.

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Week 3 Prop PlaysProp Bet 1: Saquon Barkley Over 86.5 Rushing Yards

-115
FTN Projection: 114.4
Edge: 25.2%

Saquon is off to a slow start – by his standards – this season, but he’s had this matchup circled since it was put on the schedule. Barkley rushed for an insane 255 yards vs the Rams in the regular season, then followed it up with 205 in the playoffs. While this doesn’t guarantee success in this game, it shows how the Rams scheme allows for explosive runs from a guy like Barkley.

Prop Bet 2: Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions

+100
FTN Projection: 25.5
Edge: 13.8%

Mahomes will be grateful to have Xavier Worthy back this week, as the Chiefs’ lack of weapons really showed in Week 2. The Chiefs are throwing on 62% of plays, not trusting their running game right now. And vs a Giants secondary that is vulnerable, expect Mahomes to throw all over them.

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Prop Bet 3: Darnell Mooney Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

-115
FTN Projection: 58.7
Edge: 14.0%

Mooney had just 2 catches in his return last week, but the most important stat for predicting future success was his 100% route participation rate. The gamescript led Michael Penix Jr. to just 24 dropbacks, but most weeks there will be more receptions to go around, and Mooney will be on the field every time.

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FTN’s NFL Betting ResourcesFinal Thoughts

NFL betting is about finding small edges that add up over the course of the season. FTN’s Bet of the Week is just one example of the actionable insights our model delivers. Lock in this week’s best bet, and check back every week for the next free NFL best play.