Every NHL season marks an opportunity for new stars to shine.

The goal today is to scan around the league in search of hockey’s next breakout players. “Breaking out” can mean something different for every player. This could be a highly touted youngster who takes a big step like Dylan Holloway or Kirill Marchenko did last season. Other times, it’s an unheralded third-pair defender or bottom-six forward like Ryan Donato who effectively steps into a larger role.

We’re looking for notable year-over-year growth, whether that’s in the point totals or a player’s overall role, responsibility and importance to the team.

How do we identify these candidates? These are some of the most important attributes I look for:

• Age-related growth potential (most players peak in their mid-20s, so if you’re younger than that, you’ve got a natural tailwind to improve).
• A bigger role/increased ice time.
• New opportunities to play with upgraded linemate(s).

I’m going to exclude anyone eligible for the Calder Trophy from this exercise to make it more interesting. Simon Edvinsson would have been on this list, but he made last year’s breakout candidates story and had a strong season, so I don’t want to be redundant by repeating his name.

Without further ado, let’s get into our top 10 list.

Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks

Leo Carlsson has a lot of the elite tools you look for in a future face-of-the-franchise centerman: He’s got a powerful 6-foot-3 frame, buttery smooth puckhandling, and elite playmaking vision. Age-adjusted, Carlsson’s 74 points in 131 career NHL games represent very good production. Last year’s 20-goal, 45-point campaign wasn’t quite the big breakout many expected, but there are several reasons to believe he’ll take that step this time.

Carlsson started slow but went on a 29-points-in-31-games tear to close out the season. Many of Anaheim’s young offensive players should benefit from former head coach Greg Cronin’s departure. Cronin’s ultra-demanding defensive style likely stifled the team’s offensive freedom and creativity — none of the club’s young players, except for Jackson LaCombe, took a notable step last year. I’d bet that was more of a coaching problem than a talent issue.

The Ducks’ 32nd-ranked power-play should improve under new assistant Jay Woodcroft, and with the arrival of Chris Kreider, one of the league’s best net-front power-play scorers. As a result, Carlsson, who plays a key role on the first unit, should see a big uptick from the seven power-play points he scored last year.

There should be an opportunity for Carlsson to play more than the 16 minutes of ice time he averaged last season, too.

Carlsson checks every box you look for in a breakout candidate: He’s supremely skilled, was near a point-per-game from February onward, should benefit from upgraded coaching, and Year 3 is when many forwards with elite potential break out naturally.

Zach Benson, Buffalo Sabres

On the surface, Zach Benson’s NHL production has been modest so far: He’s scored 58 points in 146 games, which equates to a 32 points per 82 games pace. However, that production is far more meaningful when you remember that Benson only just turned 20 this offseason. Nobody should be alarmed that he hasn’t yet produced at the clip of a top-six forward; if anything, the fact that he was an effective full-time NHL player during his age-18 and 19 seasons points to him having tantalizing upside. Connor Bedard is the only player in Benson’s draft class with more games played.

Benson is already an advanced two-way play driver; he drove 55 percent of shots and 54 percent of scoring chances during his five-on-five shifts last season, which was the best mark among all Sabres forwards. He’s a puck battle-winning machine because of his relentless, non-stop work rate, and he can make high-end plays because of his puckhandling in traffic and playmaking vision.

Most importantly, the JJ Peterka trade leaves Benson with a golden opportunity to play on the top line with Tage Thompson. Playing with a linemate of Thompson’s caliber in a full-time top-six role could do wonders for boosting Benson’s production. Benson was an elite point producer in junior, so there’s plenty of reason to believe he has untapped offensive growth left, even though he is undersized and doesn’t have elite straight-line speed.

Kaedan Korczak, Vegas Golden Knights

One of Vegas’ rare homegrown talents, Kaedan Korczak has been on the cusp of establishing himself as an everyday NHL defenseman for the past couple of years. The 24-year-old right-shot was buried behind Vegas’ deep defense, but finally has a meaningful opportunity to seize with Alex Pietrangelo and Nic Hague departing.

Korczak isn’t a flashy player, but with a sturdy 6-foot-3 frame and fluid skating ability, he profiles as a steady shutdown defender. He closes gaps quickly, disrupts plays, and drove impressive defensive results in 40 games last year, with the Golden Knights surrendering just 2.07 expected goals and 1.53 actual goals against per 60 during his five-on-five shifts. We, of course, have to take those numbers with a grain of salt because his role was pretty sheltered, but Vegas doesn’t need him to play high-leverage top-four minutes immediately, anyway.

Vegas is clearly a big believer in Korczak’s talent, too, because they signed him to a four-year, $13 million extension this summer, even though his current deal doesn’t expire until the end of this season. Expect Korczak to immediately shine in a third-pair role, with the potential for him to grow into a top-four player over the next two or three years.

Frank Nazar, Chicago Blackhawks

Frank Nazar is a prime example of how rapidly young players can improve in a matter of months.

Last fall, Nazar went pointless in preseason and was assigned to the AHL to start the year. He was called up a couple of months later after tearing up the minors and became a full-time NHLer, but it wasn’t until the end of the season that something special appeared to click. The speedy, high-energy 5-foot-10 center scored six goals and four assists in his last 11 games, and most impressively, accomplished that while driving his own line away from Connor Bedard. This summer, Nazar led gold-medal winning Team USA with 12 points in 10 games at the World Championships, outproducing big-name players like Clayton Keller, Tage Thompson, Matty Beniers, Conor Garland, and Will Smith, among others.

Nazar is virtually locked into playing in a full-time top-six role as the Blackhawks’ second-line center this year. He’s going to get plum even-strength and power-play opportunities, and I fully expect him to seize them given how quickly he’s improved over the last several months. Nazar’s offensive toolkit is legitimate — he could easily double the 26 points he scored last year.

Brandt Clarke, Los Angeles Kings

The Kings’ blue line was once one of the deepest in the NHL, but it’s deteriorated to the point where it looks a bit vulnerable.

Matt Roy, Sean Durzi, and Sean Walker all went elsewhere in previous years. Vladislav Gavrikov’s free-agency exit this summer leaves a massive hole (he was arguably their most valuable defenseman last year), Drew Doughty’s age is starting to show at 35, and by trading Jordan Spence, the club lost a quality depth puck mover. Tack on Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin as dicey free-agent signings on top of that, and there are suddenly some question marks on L.A.’s backend.

That uncertainty should pave the way for Brandt Clarke to step into a higher leverage role. Clarke had a decent rookie campaign with 33 points in 78 games, but his matchups were sheltered, and he averaged only 16:17 per game. The 22-year-old right-shot defender is very gifted with the puck, a skill set that’s even more important considering the Kings’ other bottom-four defenders — Ceci, Dumoulin, and Joel Edmundson — are big, slow veterans who are limited at making plays.

There are two factors that could limit just how significant a leap Clarke takes. First, is whether the Kings’ coaching staff will trust Clarke enough defensively to give him a consistent top-four opportunity. Secondly, the Kings had a lot of success with a five-forward power-play unit at the tail end of last year. If that continues, Clarke won’t get a lot of PP1 time, which would put a cap on how many points he can register. However, even with those impediments, I think Clarke is ultimately too skilled not to meaningfully break out this year.

Will Smith, San Jose Sharks

They’re somewhat different stylistically, but Will Smith’s development trajectory reminds me of Logan Cooley. Both are incredibly skilled, average-sized forwards that were drafted top-five (Cooley in 2022 and Smith in 2023), spent their draft-plus-one season dominating the NCAA, and had similar rookie campaigns. Both players had slow starts as first-time NHLers — Cooley had just eight five-on-five points in his first 38 games, Smith had just nine five-on-five points in his first 34 games — but they each improved tremendously midseason, got hot in the second half, and finished their rookie years with around 45 points.

Cooley, in his sophomore season last year, broke out as one of the most exciting U23 players in the NHL, racking up 65 points in 75 games. There’s a good chance that Smith will follow in those footsteps during his own sophomore campaign this season.

Smith turned a dramatic corner in the second half. He scored 30 points in his last 34 games and took massive strides as a play-driver. He was significantly underwater in his matchups in the first half, but by the end of the year, he was decisively winning his even-strength minutes, which is really impressive considering the porous quality of the team around him.

Will Smith 5v5 play-driving improvement

Sample

  

Shots (SF%)

  

Scoring Chances (SCF%)

  

Goals (GF%)

  

Last 34 GP

50.6%

51.3%

58.8%

First 40 GP

45.3%

43.4%

37.2%

Smith’s early shift to the wing was a key catalyst for shaking off his slow start. It’ll be fascinating to see how often Smith plays on the wing compared to center this season, but regardless, we should expect him to perform like a rising star.

Cutter Gauthier, Anaheim Ducks

Many of the reasons why I believe Carlsson will breakout also apply to Cutter Gauthier. Like Carlsson, Gauthier should benefit from the club’s coaching change and a style of play that should offer a bit more offensive creativity. Gauthier will likely be a fixture on Anaheim’s first-unit power play, which again, should score more with new coaching and Kreider’s arrival as a dangerous power-play weapon.

Gauthier had a sluggish first half with just five goals in his first 43 games, but he heated up down the stretch, scoring 11 goals and 22 points in his last 27 games. In fact, Gauthier was top-10 among all NHL players for five-on-five points in that timeframe, tied with Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Kyle Connor, among others.

Top 5v5 Point Leaders (Last 27 GP)

While the production didn’t come until late in the year, Gauthier was a prolific shot creator all season. He generated 9.5 shots per 60, which ranked in the top 20 among all NHL players. Adam Fantilli had similarly gaudy shot creation numbers as a rookie, and we saw him explode with 31 goals the following year. I think Gauthier can follow in Fantilli’s footsteps and hit the 30-goal mark as a sophomore.

Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets

Making goalie predictions can be a fool’s game with how volatile the position is. With that said, you’ll be hard-pressed to find another young goaltender (excluding Calder-eligible guys like Yaroslav Askarov) with the AHL track record, ability, and opportunity to break out that Jet Greaves possesses.

Signed as an undrafted netminder from the OHL in 2022, Greaves was one of the best starters in the AHL last season, delivering a .920 save percentage in 40 games. He was called up late in the season and almost single-handedly resuscitated the Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes, going 7-2-2 with an outrageous .938 save percentage. He gave Columbus a few quality starts in 2023-24, too, with a .908 save percentage in nine appearances. I obviously don’t expect him to replicate last year’s ridiculous numbers, but in polling goalie experts, there are believers who think he should excel as a full-time NHL goaltender.

Greaves’ exact opportunity this season will hinge on the mercurial Elvis Merzlikins. If Merzlikins stabilizes, Greaves will be looking at a 1B opportunity. But if Merzlikins struggles, Greaves could have an opportunity to seize a 1A role.

Goaltending has ailed the Blue Jackets in recent seasons, with the team’s save percentage ranking 29th in the NHL over the last three seasons. Greaves’ breakout potential could help remedy some of those woes.

Connor Zary, Calgary Flames

Connor Zary has averaged about half a point per game through the first two years of his NHL career. However, because of multiple injuries last year he hasn’t quite had the breakout where he establishes himself as a no-doubt-about-it top-six forward. He has a perfect chance to make a name for himself entering Year 3, though.

Zary has slick hands, heads-up, crafty playmaking ability, and plays hard. He isn’t the fastest player, but every other part of his offensive toolkit screams top-six player. The Flames are a weak offensive team, so there will be tons of opportunity for Zary to get the kind of ice-time and power-play role that will allow him to produce at a high clip.

The soon-to-be 24-year-old has strong two-way play-driving numbers, and you could argue that he was a bit snakebitten production-wise. Last year, Zary’s line scored on just six percent of their shots, which was one of the lowest marks in the league. That finishing efficiency should improve — Zary’s line shot 10 percent in his rookie campaign, for reference — which would juice his point totals.

If he stays healthy, Zary could easily hit 50-plus points while solidifying himself as a key core player for the Flames long-term.

Simon Nemec, New Jersey Devils

Simon Nemec lasted just nine games with the Devils at the start of last season before being demoted to the minors. He had almost zero trust all year from Sheldon Keefe, who heavily sheltered him with just 14:59 of average ice-time per game and very soft matchups. Nemec looked tentative at both ends of the rink and was regularly exposed defensively. The Devils got crushed during Nemec’s five-on-five shifts, controlling just 38 percent of expected goals and being outscored 17-8.

However, he’s a strong candidate to bounce back and re-emerge as a critical young player for the Devils. For starters, he ended the year with a strong playoff performance in a high-leverage role he was thrust into because of New Jersey’s backend injuries. Secondly, it was revealed he was playing through a shoulder injury he sustained at an Olympic qualifier game, for the entire season, which at least partially explains his sophomore slump.

The biggest reason to believe in Nemec’s potential, though, is how impressive he looked as a 19-year-old rookie in 2023-24. He was remarkably smooth on breakouts, both with his puck carrying and sharp outlet passes. Nemec’s game wasn’t very flashy, but he was so polished, mature and efficient with his two-way play, and he did it in a significant role, averaging just shy of 20 minutes per game. I don’t think you can accomplish what he did as a 19-year-old rookie defender without being a special player.

Nemec won’t be a big point producer because Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes will get power-play time ahead of him, but expect him to be a quality two-way minute muncher for New Jersey, and to have the kind of year that makes people excited about his future potential again.

Honorable mentions: Marco Kasper, Michael Kesselring, Quinton Byfield, Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Mavrik Bourque, Mackie Samoskevich, Elias Pettersson (the defenseman), Logan Stankoven, Fedor Svechkov

(Top photo of Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)