The NHL had its first significant salary cap increase in years, and yet the summer of 2025 will be remembered as … kind of a snooze.

It turns out that giving NHL general managers more financial flexibility just made the days leading up to July 1 one big reunion party. One player in the NHL’s top 50 scorers last year — Mitch Marner — now plays for a different team than he did at the end of last season.

None of the 32 goalies who won at least 20 games changed teams. Only two of the top 40 defensemen by total ice time did.

So, here we are. On the eve of the 2025-26 season with training camps in full swing, the list of top Stanley Cup contenders looks … almost exactly like it did a year ago, and basically the same as it did in April when the 2025 playoffs began.

That doesn’t mean each of these top teams is without a potential fatal flaw or three — even the two-time defending champs and the two-time defending runners up.

Let’s try to identify them.

Florida Panthers

Odds to win the Stanley Cup (via FanDuel): 6.5-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): It’s not just that the Panthers are shooting for a three-peat, which hasn’t been done since the New York Islanders won four straight from 1980-83. They are also shooting for four straight visits to the Cup Final. No team has done that since, wait for it, the Islanders from 1980-83. Six repeat champs have failed to win three titles in a row since the Islanders dynasty.

The Lightning made it back to the Final a third time in 2022, but they had also famously crashed out early the year before back-to-back titles. Wayne Gretzky’s prime-era Oilers lost in 1983, won the next two … and then crashed out in the second round in 1986.

Stuff happens. The Panthers did great work to retain their three big free agents, a huge part of why the trade and free-agent markets were so boring this offseason. But they’ve played 68 postseason games in the past three years, and it’s an Olympic year with a condensed schedule.

The roster says “doubt the Panthers at your own peril.” Modern NHL history says … go ahead and doubt them.

Dallas Stars

Odds: 8.5-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): Pete DeBoer won 149 regular-season games and got the Stars to the conference finals each of the past three years. And he got fired. Dallas took the “if you can’t beat ’em, poach one of ’em” route by replacing PDB with Oilers assistant Glen Gulutzan. He’s been the Stars coach before, when he missed the playoffs twice and got fired.

Firing DeBoer worked for Vegas in 2023, but it didn’t help San Jose or New Jersey get any closer to a Cup. Beyond the coaching uncertainty, there’s also the Jason Robertson contract situation. He’s a pending restricted free agent. He’s a really good player. Is he a franchise-level guy, on a team that has Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen and Wyatt Johnston?

Edmonton Oilers

Odds: 8.5-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): Is there anyone important to the cause in Oil Country who doesn’t have a contract next year? Oh. It’s a situation right now with Connor McDavid, but we might not be far from saga territory.

Beyond that, the Oilers have decided that maybe the third time will be the charm with their suspect goaltending depth chart. That feels like a mistake, but it was a bear market for goaltenders who aren’t suspect.

Carolina Hurricanes

Odds: 9.5-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): Speaking of teams that have had goaltending issues but are running the same tandem back for a third straight year, here come the Hurricanes. Frederik Andersen has played 38 regular-season games the past two years. Pyotr Kochetkov has been Russian for “Playoff Connor Hellebuyck” — albeit in a relatively small postseason sample.

The Hurricanes addressed a longstanding concern last year, adding an elite forward with size and a killer playoff track record. But then they traded him to Dallas six weeks later. The Avs checked Carolina’s big addition up front, Nikolaj Ehlers, completely out of the playoffs in 2024, though he did have five goals in eight postseason games last year.

Colorado Avalanche

Odds: 10-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): A year after historic roster upheaval, the continuity on the roster is a positive. But, the depth beyond what the best lineup would like if everyone is healthy looks … incomplete.

Who is the No. 8 defenseman? After a year where the Avs shuffled through nearly the entire Eagles forward group, in part because none of them were able to consistently produce, who are the injury callups going to be? It feels like the Avs could be, and need to be, active on the early-season waiver wire.

Beyond that, the potential flaws are still obvious. The defense, even with Brent Burns, is a little small, by Cup contender standards. We don’t know how Gabe Landeskog’s knee will hold up over a full season.

The likely top-line right wing doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. And the guy who held that spot before him plays for the archrival, whom the Avs haven’t beaten in three playoff tries and is likely going to waiting for them in mid-April or early May yet again.

Vegas Golden Knights

Odds: 10-1

Potential fatal flaw(s): This might be the team with the fewest potential flaws. Not having Alex Pietrangelo is a big deal. The defense corps looks more really good and less great, now.

Beyond that … Mitch Marner has struggled in the playoffs? Mark Stone has struggled to stay healthy? Insert a joke about the new playoff salary cap here?

On paper, this team looks pretty scary. And look out if Vegas finds a way to add one more No. 3/4 defenseman.

Want more Avalanche news? Sign up for the Avalanche Insider to get all our NHL analysis.