Their reward? One day of rest, a long flight to Minnesota and the WNBA’s best team waiting for them.
On Sunday afternoon at Target Center, the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx host the fourth-seeded Mercury in Game 1 of the WNBA semifinals. The best-of-five series pits two of the most complete teams in the league against each other. It also features a head-to-head battle between two of the finalists for WNBA MVP.
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A marquee individual matchup
Minnesota forward Napheesa Collier and Phoenix forward Alyssa Thomas will be the spotlight of this series, much like how Thomas’ matchup with New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart headlined the Mercury’s first-round series.
Collier, the face of the Lynx’s post-Maya Moore era, makes the Lynx a powerhouse with her scoring prowess and defensive ferocity. She finished the regular season second in the league in scoring at 22.9 points per game, grabbed 7.3 rebounds per game, and became only the second player in WNBA history to post a 50/40/90 season. A five-time WNBA All-Star and last season’s Defensive Player of the Year, she won MVP in The Next’s awards voting.
Meanwhile, Thomas has broken records of her own. She has a league-best nine triple-doubles this season, with her most recent one coming in Game 3 against the Liberty. That was also her fifth career playoff triple-double; no other player has more than one. Thomas affects the game in every facet, setting a tone of physicality and craftiness that ultimately led the Mercury to win Round 1.
With the MVP award set to be announced on Sunday, whoever doesn’t win might have some extra motivation. Either way, both superstars are the focal points of their teams and can single-handedly tilt the outcome of the series.
Rest vs. rhythm
One of the most intriguing storylines going into the series, especially ahead of Game 1, is rest. Minnesota completed a sweep of the Golden State Valkyries on Wednesday, giving them three full days to recover and prepare.
“Any rest you can get is huge at this time of the year,” Collier said earlier in the week. “The games are super physical.”
Phoenix, meanwhile, played a physical elimination game on Friday and immediately traveled to Minneapolis. The Mercury could be at a disadvantage from having to shift their focus from New York to Minnesota so quickly. But at the same time, it could be an advantage because Phoenix is a team that has leaned on momentum all postseason.
“For Minnesota, we’ll worry about that after this win,” Mercury forward Satou Sabally told reporters on Friday after Phoenix advanced. “We’ve already had a few games against them, never at full strength, but we’re excited.”
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History favors the Lynx, but with an asterisk
This series will be unpredictable given the circumstances of the teams’ regular-season matchups. The Lynx and Mercury squared off four times in 2025, with Minnesota winning three times. However, Phoenix was never at full strength in those games.
The Mercury’s “Big Three” of Thomas, Sabally and Kahleah Copper never shared the floor in those games — in fact, at least two of them were out for each game. Copper missed all four games, while Thomas and Sabally each missed two.
Despite this, the Mercury won once and kept two of the losses close.
“We’ve matched up with Minnesota pretty well all season,” Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts told reporters on Friday. “We’re going to celebrate tonight and worry about them tomorrow.”
Also, the last matchup between them was more than two months ago on July 16. Injuries aside, a lot has changed since then, which will make it interesting to see how Tibbetts and Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve game plan.
Lynx have depth, defense and a drive for redemption
Minnesota enters the series with more than just Collier. Reeve’s team is stacked with both star power and role players who fit their system seamlessly.
Forward Alanna Smith, the 2025 WNBA Co-Defensive Player of the Year, has anchored the paint with 1.9 blocks per game. Veteran guard Kayla McBride, a five-time All-Star, is a proven secondary scorer and is averaging 14.2 points per game.
There are also the “StudBudz”: Courtney Williams, the fiery point guard whose relentless intensity has made her a fan favorite and an All-Star in 2025, and Natisha Hiedeman, who finished second in Sixth Player of the Year voting thanks to her steady shooting (37.1% from 3-point range).
But Minnesota isn’t invincible. The team just announced that reserve guard/forward DiJonai Carrington will miss the rest of the postseason with a left foot sprain. Carrington, the 2024 WNBA Most Improved Player and an All-Defensive first team selection, was averaging 8.5 points on 4-for-7 3-point shooting in the playoffs.
In 2024, the Lynx stormed to the WNBA Finals but lost to New York in a Game 5 overtime thriller. Most of the key players on that roster remain on the team, and that heartbreak has fueled their season-long push. The Mercury just took down the defending champions, but Minnesota has improved and is mostly healthy.
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Mercury blend new stars and old wisdom
Sabally (16.3 points per game) and Copper (15.6 points) have given Phoenix dynamic scoring threats to complement Thomas’ playmaking. Copper, the 2021 Finals MVP and one of only two returners from last season, has been called the Mercury’s “thermometer” because of how her energy dictates the team’s success.
Veteran guard/forward DeWanna Bonner‘s midseason arrival gave Phoenix something it badly needed: postseason pedigree. Bonner leads all players with 90 career playoff appearances and remains a defensive anchor.
“Just hearing what the people were saying on TV about all of her accolades, what she’s done in the playoffs, the points that she’s scored, the games that she’s played in,” Tibbetts said of Bonner. “We’re so damn lucky to have her, and she’s been just awesome. … She’s a big reason why we are where we are.”
On the other hand, Phoenix also has four rookies, including key rotational players Monique Akoa Makani and Kathryn Westbeld. Akoa Makani is the starting point guard and did an excellent job guarding Liberty star Sabrina Ionescu in Round 1, while Westbeld has come off the bench to hit big shots all season long.
That balance of new blood and seasoned presence has made Phoenix dangerous. And Tibbetts has embraced the unknowns of guiding a group that’s still learning how to win together.
“Every time we go through something, it’s going to be the first time together,” Tibbetts said. “I’m extremely proud of this group.”
What it all means and where it will be decided
The Lynx have home-court advantage, with games 1, 2 and 5 set in Minneapolis. Phoenix will host games 3 and 4 at PHX Arena. The Mercury players have raved all season about the “X-Factor,” their raucous home crowd, and how much it has lifted them during tight moments.
But the Lynx are not easily rattled. Collier relishes hostile environments, thriving in Game 2 of the first round, when Minnesota stormed back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to close out the series on the road.
“As an opposing player, playing in environments like this, it’s really fun,” Collier told reporters about the rowdy Valkyries fans after Game 2.
On paper, the Lynx enter the semifinals as clear favorites. They lead the league in nearly every major team statistic: offensive rating, defensive rating, assists, field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Meanwhile, Phoenix sits seventh in offense and fifth in defense. The teams are nearly identical in rebounding (34.7 rebounds per game for Phoenix, 34.2 for Minnesota), but that’s one of the few categories where they’re on even ground.
For Minnesota, this series is about continuing to pursue unfinished business. For Phoenix, it’s about continuing to rewrite its identity in real time.