When Edmonton Oilers veteran Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a career high 104 points in 2022-23, all agreed it was a dream season that would not be repeated. Nugent-Hopkins was 29, exiting his prime, and was more suited to a two-way role and a complementary scorer’s point totals.

Since then, the veteran’s offensive production has (predictably) fallen. As players age, offensive output decreases, injuries rise and consistent excellence becomes elusive. Let’s have a look at this player and what we can expect from the coming season.

Injuries

Nugent-Hopkins played the Stanley Cup Final against the Florida Panthers last spring with a broken hand. Captain Connor McDavid commented after the series about how inspirational it was to see the veteran “gut it out” in some of the most important games of his career.

The veteran has suffered various injuries (often in the shoulder) over the years, and his career injury record shows many games missed due to illness (flu in fall and spring). Based on his playing in the final with a broken hand, it’s fair to conclude he has soldiered on through injury before. That might not show up in games missed, but his performance in specific seasons would have been impacted.

Inconsistent scoring

Nugent-Hopkins was the No. 1 pick in 2011, but lacked the high-octane offensive power that McDavid and Leon Draisaitl brought to the NHL. He is a complementary scorer at even strength, while also being (for much of his career) an exceptional power-play force. The most recent season saw a downturn in both even-strength and power-play offence:

YearEV Pts-GamePP Pts-Game

2021-22

0.35

0.37

2022-23

0.57

0.65

2023-24

0.48

0.33

2024-25

0.35

0.26

Via NHL.com

The erosion of even-strength points per game is typical for a player entering his 30s. Nugent-Hopkins has been such a screaming power-play success (his peak came in 2022-23, but he has enjoyed other impact seasons with the man advantage) for much of his career, and that could continue in the seasons to come. His great utility (he can play the point on the power play, or fill any other role) suggests he will remain part of that unit for the next few years.

So, are we entering an area where Nugent-Hopkins won’t score enough to play on a top line at even strength? The numbers with and without McDavid on his line create a dire picture. As I wrote earlier in the summer, Nugent-Hopkins fell from 2.26 points per 60 at five-on-five in 2023-24 to 1.50 this past season. That’s a major drop in scoring, and contributed to the top line’s outscoring malaise a year ago.

Coach’s decision

Going back to the 2022-23 season, Nugent-Hopkins outscored on several lines up and down the depth chart. When placed with McDavid and Zach Hyman, his line scored 16 and allowed 10 goals in 207 even-strength minutes. Nugent-Hopkins also centred a line with Klim Kostin and Mattias Janmark that season; in 141 even-strength minutes, Edmonton enjoyed a 10-6 edge in goals.

When a player moves down the depth chart, the quality of competition is also lowered. For a player like Nugent-Hopkins, running on a depth line with Kostin and Janmark allowed him room to wheel in a season he was healthy and everything was breaking in a good direction.

Last season, Nugent-Hopkins was far less successful when playing with McDavid and Hyman. The unit owned a small outscoring edge (13-12) in 317 minutes at even strength, meaning a far larger number of minutes played with poorer results. That included a steep drop in goals per 60 for the trio.

These numbers may have informed the coaching staff’s summer evaluation and led to a preseason alignment that moved Nugent-Hopkins off the top line.

Also contributing to the current line tweak? The 2024-25 line that featured Nugent-Hopkins with Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin. Facing lesser opposition, the line scored six and allowed the same number. Nugent-Hopkins was 3-0 in under 100 minutes with Janmark and Connor Brown. There’s a road to success for Nugent-Hopkins on a No. 3 line.

Utility

Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t receive many votes for NHL awards (he gets some Selke votes in some seasons), and his 100-point campaign in 2022-23 was celebrated by Oilers fans but didn’t move the needle much in regard to recognition in the hockey industry.

One of Nugent-Hopkins’ great strengths, and a reason he is a fan favourite, is his willingness to adapt in order to elevate the team. He’s reaching the point in his career when a depth role (at centre, possibly wing) during even-strength minutes may become the norm.

Bottom line

Nugent-Hopkins is reaching a point in his career when the minutes with McDavid at five-on-five are fleeting. Failing a comeback season, all indicators available suggest the veteran is no longer the offensive contributor of a few short seasons ago. His shy scoring last year may or may not have been impacted by injury (it isn’t known when he broke his hand), and an uptick in scoring could extend his career trajectory on a skill line for another season.

The main positive for the player, and fans, is that Nugent-Hopkins should be able to help a third line outscore and will continue to be an integral part of the penalty kill. The power-play time will eventually be surrendered, but there do not appear to be any strong threats on the horizon.

His utility has always been a strength, and now that he is entering a new phase of his career, the range of skills should enable Nugent-Hopkins to remain an important player for the team. If he can continue to post strong boxcar numbers (20-29-49 in 78 games last season), the chances will be there.

Nugent-Hopkins has been to hell and back with the Oilers. It’s unfathomable to imagine the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup without Nugent-Hopkins playing a prominent role. As he ages (he’ll be 33 in April) and his scoring fades, some grim options may have to be contemplated.

A strong rebound season would be ideal for all involved. My summer “reasonable expectations” prediction suggests a small rebound (22 goals and 54 points) and another productive season in a role that sees fewer minutes on the top line but a bounce-back in power-play output. No more 100-point seasons are coming in Nugent-Hopkins’ career, but he could be an important contributor to a Stanley Cup winner in 2026.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)