Surprising no-one, the RBA has not delivered a cut this month.
That gives rise to the question: “If not now, when?”
Nerida Conisbee, chief economist at Ray White, said it would likely be November, when the RBA board next meets.
“We did lose 5,500 jobs in August.. if that continues to deteriorate, it could mean an increased chance of a cut,” she told ABC News after the decision.
“Also the inflation rate, the trim mean inflation of August came in at 2.3 per cent… it could also lead to a cut.”
The markets are pricing in one more cut in 2025, a revision from the two that had been predicted, Conisbee said, warning that things can “change very, very quickly depending on the data that comes through”.
The Ray White economist said construction costs were still “problematic”, but that rents had “settled down”.
“I think there will be a cut in November at this point,” she said.
“Obviously will depend on what happens with that labour market data coming in a couple of weeks and also the quarterly inflation data, but certainly not two cuts as hoped by February.”
Ray White has illustrated how inflation has worked alongside the RBA cash rate decisions. · Ray White