Four of the most important interconnected parts of the Earth’s climate system are losing stability. This is shown by an international scientific study based on observational data published in Nature Geoscience. The researchers succeeded in highlighting the warning signals for destabilization of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest, and the South American monsoon system.
“We now have convincing observational evidence that several interconnected parts of the Earth system are destabilizing,” says lead author Prof. Niklas Boers from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “This means that these systems may be approaching critical thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger abrupt and irreversible changes with severe consequences,” adds Prof. Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter.
The researchers’ major concern is that these climate systems are not isolated. The systems interact with each other via the oceans and the atmosphere, which can lead to interactions and feedbacks. In the worst-case scenario, this destabilizes them and intensifies the negative consequences for the global climate system. At the same time, these effects could mask genuine warning signals and make tipping points even more difficult to predict.
“Unlike previous studies that focus on individual Earth system components, this new research zooms out to analyze them together as part of a larger, interconnected system,” adds co-author Dr. Teng Liu, also from TUM.