We’re less than one week from meaningful hockey, and yes, you’ve seen a million previews. But what if I told you this one was going to be accurate?

It won’t be, for the record. Probably not even close. But what if I told you that? Let’s pretend that I just did.

It’s time for the annual four-division gimmick, one that’s so old it stretches back to a time when the NHL having four division was considered news. The rules have stayed consistent ever since. I get four divisions: the bottom-feeders, the middle-of-the-pack, the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders and then the teams I just have no idea about. And because I enjoy making my own life difficult, that eight-teams-per-division rule is mandatory.

Sounds simple enough. And in theory, it is … as long as we pretend that an NHL season is ever predictable. Let’s start from the bottom and work our way up.

The bottom-feeder division

Last season, one of the eight bottom-feeders made the playoffs. Also, another one of them had five more points than the playoff team but missed out on the postseason, because the NHL makes sense.

San Jose Sharks

Last season: 20-50-12, -102 goals differential, finished dead last

Their offseason in six words: Lots of churn, another top prospect.

Why they’re here: Dom’s model says they improved more than any other team in the offseason. That’s good news; the not-so-good is that they’ve got a mile to go to be competitive. You can see the long-term vision, but right now the emphasis is still on the “long.”

Chicago Blackhawks

Last season: 25-46-11, -68 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Jeff Blashill is new, roster isn’t.

Why they’re here: Because it’s clearly where they want to be, at least for one more year. Kyle Davidson’s rebuild hasn’t been subtle and we’re still waiting to find out if it’s ultimately effective. It’s doubtful that we’ll get that answer this year, as the Hawks seem content to punt the last season of Connor Bedard’s rookie deal on yet another lottery season.

Seattle Kraken

Last season: 35-41-6, -17 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: New coach. New GM. New era?

Why they’re here: They’re on their third coach in the last three years, and Ron Francis is out as GM (but still involved). Lane Lambert and Jason Botterill both had tough first NHL stints, and both probably need this to go well if it’s not going to be their last shot. They might find that success in Seattle, but I don’t see a path to it this season.

Nashville Predators

Last season: 30-44-8, -62 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: No “offseason champions” banner this time.

Why they’re here: I’ll admit I didn’t see last year’s disaster coming, so maybe there’s rebound potential here that I’m missing, too. But the gap they have to make up is large, and Barry Trotz didn’t do a ton to start bridging it. Andrew Brunette sure feels like a guy who’ll either be a Jack Adams finalist or looking for work by the holidays.

The Predators had an unexpectedly abysmal 2024-25, and it won’t be easy to meaningfully jump up the Central Division standings. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)

Buffalo Sabres

Last season: 36-39-7, -22 goals differential, missed the playoffs for an NHL-record 14th consecutive season

Their offseason in six words: Traded Peterka, didn’t do much else.

Why they’re here: Because they’re the Sabres. Look, if you’re a Buffalo fan and you’re looking for optimism, I’ll direct you to last week’s post, in which Dom made the case for several Sabres having a shot at major awards. I’d love to see it happen. But even my inner contrarian has given up on expecting the Sabres to finally look like a real team. Instead, I’ll believe it when I see it. And at this point, maybe not even then.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Last season: 34-36-12, -45 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: All Crosby rumors, all the time.

Why they’re here: Because they’re a classic “window slamming shut” team, but they can’t truly rebuild because they’re in the final days of the Sidney Crosby era. Up until a few months ago, that meant they were doomed to stay the course, which would mean hoping against hope that everything would go just right and they could limp into the playoffs. But now, it seems like a Crosby trade could at least be a realistic possibility, even if it still feels unlikely. And if it happened, the Penguins could move on to openly chasing lottery odds. Either way, the Penguins will be bad – either intentionally or otherwise.

Philadelphia Flyers

Last season: 33-39-10, -51 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Fixed the goaltending with Dan Vladar.

Why they’re here: I feel like that offseason sentence pretty much sums it up. Look, the Flyers are starting a youth movement, and rolling the dice on Trevor Zegras makes perfect sense in that context. They were bad but not awful last season, and we’ve seen the new coach bounce work elsewhere. But this team will go as far as their goaltending can carry them, and even with some regression away from “historically awful,” it’s still hard to see Vladar, Samuel Ersson and friends being enough to keep them in the playoff race for long.

New York Islanders

Last season: 35-35-12, -25 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Lou is gone. Stubble for everyone!

Why they’re here: Mathieu Darche hasn’t promised a full-scale rebuild and maybe he doesn’t need one. The Islanders are the only fake .500 team in this section, which means they’re at least starting off closer to the playoffs than anyone else. But I’m betting they’re not quite good enough, and if so I’m waiting on Darche to get aggressive on setting the table for the future.

The middle-of-the-pack division

This is the least interesting division of this exercise, and you should feel free to skip it. Then again, if you’d done that last year, you’d have missed the eventual Presidents’ Trophy winners.

Calgary Flames

Last season: 41-27-14, -16 goals differential, missed playoffs on a tiebreaker (despite having five more points than two Eastern teams that made it)

Their offseason in six words: We’re fine, thanks, no changes here.

Why they’re here: Because it’s where they seem to want to be. Dustin Wolf is a stud and could win multiple Vezinas over the next decade, but beyond that I’m not sure I see the plan in Calgary. The rest of the roster is OK. The prospect pipeline is OK. They’re not rebuilding, but also not going for it. For now, at least, the Flames seem perfectly content to hang around the playoff mix, hoping they can sneak in without ever really scaring anyone once they’re there.

Dustin Wolf could drag the Flames to plenty of wins based on his play last season. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

Ottawa Senators

Last season: 45-30-7, +10 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: Lars Eller? Sure, fine, why not.

Why they’re here: Because it’s pretty clear that the Senators are on the path to better things, but we’re still not sure just how high the ceiling is going to be. For now, a return to the playoffs feels like it should be the floor, and cracking the Atlantic’s big three is certainly in play.

Minnesota Wild

Last season: 45-30-7, -11 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: Kaprizov has signed! Wait, how much?

Why they’re here: I could make a joke about how “They’re the Wild” here, which would be tired and cliched and hackneyed and also kind of true. The reality is, after a 97-point season, they’re a lot closer to the next division than the last one. I’m just not quite sold yet, especially in the Central, even though they got rid of the Kirill Kaprizov distraction just in time.

Utah Mammoth

Last season: 38-31-13, -7 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: We have a name! (And Peterka.)

Why they’re here: The Mammoth landed one of the biggest prizes of the trade market in JJ Peterka, which should be enough to at least nudge them into the playoff mix. It’s hard to see a path to much more than that, though, especially in a top-heavy Central. Our previews have them as the league’s 17th best team, and you can’t get much more middle-of-the-pack than that.

Detroit Red Wings

Last season: 39-35-8, -24 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: The Yzerplan now includes John Gibson.

Why they’re here: It’s been slow and steady progress in Detroit, and you can choose which of those two words you think applies the best. With Gibson in place, a full season from Todd McLellan and continued development from the youth, this team should be better than last season’s edition. Is that enough to get them into the playoffs? I’m not sure it is, but it should definitely keep them in the middle.

St. Louis Blues

Last season: 44-30-8, +19 goals differential, lost in first round in the most agonizing way possible

Their offseason in six words: Trying to forget how it ended.

Why they’re here: When a 90ish-point team has a mostly quiet summer, the easy thing to do is pencil them in for roughly the same outcome. The easy way isn’t always the smart way, but I think it probably is here. The X-factor could be Jim Montgomery, who gets his first full season to mold this team. He’s one of the best, but I don’t think he’s good enough to get this roster into legitimate contention.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Last season: 52-26-4, +38 goals differential, lost in second round

Their offseason in six words: Core Four era ends. Bye, Mitch.

Why they’re here: With 108 points, the Leafs had the best 2024-25 record of any team in this section. But it’s not 2024-25 anymore, and this feels like a transition year in Toronto. It’s certainly going to be an interesting test of the whole “addition by subtraction” concept, and it’s possible it all leads to something that feels like an improvement by playoff time … which, of course, is all that will matter in Toronto.

Montreal Canadiens

Last season: 40-31-11, -18 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: Made some big “win-now” deals.

Why they’re here: After shocking the league with last season’s playoff appearance, the Canadiens have shifted into the next phase of the rebuild. Adding Noah Dobson and Zack Bolduc cost them picks and prospects, but that’s the price you pay to make sure you don’t get stuck spinning your wheels in the mushy middle. Between the reinforcements and the ascendance of Ivan Demidov, the Habs should be nicely set up to prove that last season was no fluke. They’re not true contenders yet, but they’re on the way.

The Cup contenders division

For a league that loves to brag about its parity, the NHL hasn’t seen much change at the top in recent years. Case in point: Seven of these eight teams were in this same division last year, and six made the cut the year before that.

Florida Panthers

Last season: 47-31-4, +23 goals differential, won Stanley Cup

Their offseason in six words: Everyone re-signed, but Barkov is hurt.

Why they’re here: Because I’m not going to get cute and start doubting the two-time champs, even with Aleksander Barkov likely out for the regular season and Matthew Tkachuk missing significant time. If you think those injuries put the Panthers in danger of missing the playoffs, fine. But if they make it, even as a wild card, there won’t be a team in the league that wants any part of them once the games actually matter.

Colorado Avalanche

Last season: 49-29-4, +42 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: Run it back? Run it back.

Why they’re here: Because nobody should overreact to last season’s early exit. Yes, they’ll have to beat the Stars to get where they want to be, and ideally they wouldn’t have to do it in the first round. This is still a stacked team, and one that probably won’t have to spend the first month of the season figuring out its goaltending this time. (Plus they’ll have Sidney Crosby after the deadline, so…)

Dallas Stars

Last season: 50-26-6, +53 goals differential, lost in conference final

Their offseason in six words: Round three? Not good enough, coach.

Why they’re here: They’re arguably the most talented roster in the entire league. No, they haven’t been able to get over the conference-final hump, and Glen Gulutzan will be under plenty of pressure to change that. But if we’re going to have eight teams in this division, finding a spot for the team that always makes the final four isn’t all that tough.

The Stars have been consistently excellent over the past few seasons, but haven’t managed to make it to the Final. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Vegas Golden Knights

Last season: 50-22-10, +60 goals differential, lost in round two

Their offseason in six words: Knights get best player available, yawn.

Why they’re here: Because they’re a 110-point team that just added Mitch Marner, playing in what should be a weak division with only one major threat. Granted, that threat knocked them out last season in a surprisingly short series, and losing Alex Pietrangelo will hurt. But the Knights don’t seem to have any major weaknesses, and if any develop they’ll be aggressive in addressing them, as always.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last season: 47-27-8, +76 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: No cap space equals no blockbusters.

Why they’re here: Remember those few days at the start of last season’s playoffs when the Lightning had home ice and the best goals differential in the conference and everyone was picking them to beat the Panthers, then they got wrecked in five and we all agreed to never speak of it again? That was weird. But it wasn’t all that outlandish, because this is still a very good team that’s firmly in “win now, forget the future” mode. Getting past the Panthers will be tough, especially if they’re healthy by the spring, but that applies to every team in this section.

Carolina Hurricanes

Last season: 47-30-5, +36 goals differential, lost in conference final

Their offseason in six words: They landed Nikolaj Ehlers, as expected.

Why they’re here: Ehlers always seemed like too good a fit, and the Hurricanes had the cap space to go get him. Now we see if he’s the missing piece that can boost the playoff scoring. We’ll find out, because it’s pretty much impossible to imagine this team missing the playoffs in the Metro.

New Jersey Devils

Last season: 42-33-7, +20 goals differential, lost in first round

Their offseason in six words: Everybody please just get healthy again.

Why they’re here: At first glance, having a 91-point team that lost in the first round in the contenders division might seem like a stretch. And yeah, it probably is. But two things are behind this pick. First, I need eight teams. And second, I’m willing to mostly write off their underwhelming 2024-25 season as the product of an especially bad run of injury luck. The division should be tougher, but home ice in Round 1 feels like a reasonable goal.

Edmonton Oilers

Last season: 48-29-5, +24 goals differential, lost in Stanley Cup Final

Their offseason in six words: Did we forget to re-sign somebody?

Why they’re here: Some of you might have been expecting to see them in the last group. I definitely thought about it. There’s certainly an ominous feeling around the Oilers these days, with questions about the goaltending plus Connor McDavid’s extension hanging over everything, much to Oilers fans’ chagrin. You can come up with plenty of ways it goes south. I’m just not sure it can go south far enough to keep the Oilers out of at least having a solid chance at emerging from the Pacific.

The your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine division

I’m kind of dumb, and I don’t know much. But I do know what I don’t know, and these are the teams I’m convinced I know the least.

Winnipeg Jets

Last season: 56-22-4, +85 goals differential, first place overall, lost in second round

Their offseason in six words: Ehlers gone, but Toews comes home.

Why they’re here: We spent all of last year refusing to believe the Jets were legitimate Presidents’ Trophy contenders, right up until they actually won it. Well, that’s not completely true — it feels like some of us still don’t believe that happened, despite what the standings tell us. And if you’re in that group, you’re expecting a meaningful step back this season, maybe one that involves Connor Hellebuyck not being the best goalie in the world like he usually is. I’m honestly not sure which group I’m in; part of me wants to believe, part of me thinks the most likely outcome here is third place in the Central, followed by another early playoff exit. Luckily, I get to wimp out on eight teams, and I’m playing one of those cards here.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Last season: 40-33-9, even goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: The Columbus Tax is real, Ivan.

Why they’re here: Because I don’t have the heart to put them back in the bottom-dwellers division, even as I’m not sure they can hang in the middle. I’d love to eat crow here — not many have pumped the Blue Jackets’ tires as much as I have over the years — and they certainly exceeded expectations last season. Let’s just say I’m not optimistic, but I’d love to be wrong.

Boston Bruins

Last season: 33-39-10, -49 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Surely Tanner Jeannot will fix this.

Why they’re here: I had the Bruins in this same confusing group a year ago, but I’ll happily admit I never saw their disastrous season coming. At the absolute worst, you could have maybe talked me into a playoff miss. But tied for dead last in the conference? It wouldn’t have made sense. I’m still not sure it does. The Bruins need a rebuild, and they started that process at the deadline, so a few years of losing feel inevitable. But if Jeremy Swayman rebounds, is it really that hard to imagine this team being around the postseason hunt reasonably deep into the season?

Washington Capitals

Last season: 51-22-9, +57 goals differential, lost in second round

Their offseason in six words: Pretty quiet. Yep. Pretty, pretty quiet.

Why they’re here: Because I’ve been wrong about them for two years running, so why even pretend I can figure this team out? Caps fans will say it’s simple: They’re consistently better than I give them credit for, and I should stop doubting and get on board. They were the conference’s top seed last season, after all. What are they going to do, go from that to missing the playoffs? I kind of think they might, actually. And given my track record, Washington fans should be thrilled to hear it.

New York Rangers

Last season: 39-36-7, even goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Fix this mess please, Mike Sullivan.

Why they’re here: It feels like there’s no way they can be as bad as last year. Then again, they were that bad last season, and on paper the roster got worse over the summer. Sullivan will certainly help, even though I don’t think Peter Laviolette was the problem. If I had to divide up the odds, I’d say there’s about a 70 percent chance the Rangers are back in the playoff mix, and a 30 percent chance they’re bad enough that Chris Drury launches a job-saving rebuild attempt that writes off the season.

New Rangers captain J.T. Miller is tasked with turning the team around from a dismal season. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Los Angeles Kings

Last season: 48-25-9, +46 goals differential, lost to the Oilers in first round like always

Their offseason in six words: We’d rather not talk about it.

Why they’re here: They finished sixth overall last year, with a better record and goals differential than both Cup finalists. Then they lost to the Oilers, again, and it cost Rob Blake his job. Nobody liked Ken Holland’s offseason work, and it’s led to an emerging consensus that the Kings may not even be a playoff team. I can see that playing out, especially if Bad Darcy Kuemper shows up. But I do think we’re all forgetting how good they’ve been over the last few years with essentially this same core.

Vancouver Canucks

Last season: 38-30-14, -18 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Seriously, stop tampering with Quinn Hughes.

Why they’re here: Because I’m still not sure what to make of last year. Was it just one of those seasons that you write off, because the star goalie was hurt and the stud blueliner missed time, too, and the two best forwards hated each other so much that you had to trade one? It might be, yeah. And if so, do you have to revert your expectations to something closer to 2023-24, when this was a 109-point team? Eh, that seems a bit much for me. I can see the pieces in place, and the coaching change might turn out to be the right move. But until I’m convinced Elias Pettersson isn’t $11.6 million worth of broken, I’m still a skeptic.

Anaheim Ducks

Last season: 35-37-10, -44 goals differential, missed playoffs

Their offseason in six words: Zegras and Gibson traded, Quenneville back.

Why they’re here: Because I kind of sort of think they’re making the playoffs this season. It’s a pretty wobbly belief, and I retain the right to withdraw it if they start slow. But that early schedule, with just one playoff team in their first seven, gives them a nice chance at some momentum. The path to third place in the Pacific seems reasonably open, and we typically see one young team make a leap each year. This might be the Ducks’ time.

(Top photo of Alex Ovechkin and Elias Pettersson: Derek Cain / Getty Images)