Up until the weekend just gone, the quality of the 2025 NRL and NRLW finals series has been of a rare vintage. You’d have to say that last weekend’s matches only added to the lustre with which this season will be remembered.
NRL
Last weekend’s Preliminary Finals were worthy preludes to this weekend’s Grand Final in their intensity, commitment and exhilaration. The winners deserved to progress but the losers lost no fans in their elimination. Both games were settled only in the final minutes so both survivors will need to draw from deep in the well to get up for one final effort.
The Sharks may have exited at the same stage as last year and so be regarded as having made no progress in 2025. I think that’s unfair as they have been there or thereabouts all season. The acquisition of AFB strengthened their workmanlike pack into something much better. Just look at their win over Canberra last week to see how that one extra class player lifts those around him. It probably took a lot out of them as they couldn’t quite muster the same level in the Preliminary Final against the Storm. But then again, not many packs go to Melbourne and come away on top. Coach Fitzgibbon got it right when he said that his Sharks are a very good team but are still short of being a great team. But they are on the way. Perhaps the missing link is one more world class attacking forward.
Melbourne are simply Melbourne – a class act that keeps performing, one of the elite clubs of the past two decades (and more), capable of fighting in the trenches for as long as necessary before pulling out the key plays to win. They had to do it all again before finally subduing the Sharks. And they got a bonus or two along the way – Hughes was back to his best immediately on his return and was possibly the player of the match. Form is fickle but class is permanent. Papenhuyzen also returned and was as dangerous as ever but, more importantly, he seems to have survived the game in tact. Grant is Grant, Munster is Munster. But Coates is a monster! He played 89 minutes of that game as a defensive winger, mostly doing the heavy work of bringing the ball back from deep in his corner only to be met by a wall of Sharks hitmen. But come the moment, there he was out on the edge to receive the pass and score in the corner to put the game out of reach.
Brisbane and Penrith put on one of the games of the year on Sunday afternoon. Penrith have an aura because of their staggering success over the past several years. So when they went out to a 14-0 lead at the break, most would have thought it was as good as over. The precise sweeping attacks, the punishing defence based on speed off the line, Cleary’s kicking game, Alamoti and To’o damaging out wide – how do you, how can you counteract all that? But, at the same time, how can a team sustain such a high level for so long, especially after a season like they’ve had where they struggled just to make the finals?
All week during the lead-up to this game, the ‘experts’ all had the same advice for Brisbane – attack the Panthers, don’t simply try to engage them in the hope that you’ll get over them. And, for once, the experts got it right. Brisbane had no choice but to defend for most of the first half. On the balance of play and territorial advantage, Brisbane were lucky to go into the break at only 0-14. It felt like it should have been 18 to 20 points in arrears. Coach Maguire must have had quite a message for them in the sheds. They came out needing to score first to stay in it and have any chance. They did that through Staggs early on, 6-14. Haas began to run straight after going sideways too often in the first half, Willison added mongrel and Hetherington brought energy. Hunt and Reynolds varied their plays and Walsh lurked. Brisbane attacked and suddenly Penrith looked a bit tired, a tad ruffled and a touch vulnerable. Martin was lucky to stay on the field when he ran in on Mam and Brisbane got the penalty. A lucky bounce had Willison over but Walsh botched the conversion, 10-14. Walsh attacked the line and somehow managed to shovel a pass towards Mariner who still had a lot of work to do but scrambled over, 14-14. A few years ago, the Broncos bought Adam Reynolds because he’s a proven winner. Who else should take the potentially match-winning kick in such a situation? With his skill, the momentum and most of the 52,00 rollicking fans behind him, how could he possibly miss? 16-14. Penrith tried their best to go for the try but were forced to resort to Plan B, the 2-point field goal but the long pass back to Cleary was too short and the ultimate fallback of an attempt by Edwards fell well short and dribbled dead. Game over!
Rugby league – ‘the greatest game of all’, or, as Prop by the Sea reminds us every week, ‘You gotta love footy!’
Sunday’s Grand Final between Melbourne and Brisbane will be 2006 all over again – Melbourne will be favourites but Brisbane will not be without its supporters. Back then the Broncos pulled off a heist, 15-8. Can they do it again?
Time to stick my neck out!
I think the Broncos can and so I’m going to tip them. Perhaps it’s in the tea leaves. Go back a fortnight and Brisbane were dead and buried against Canberra, 16 points down away from home with 15 minutes to play, but found an extra something to come back to force extra time and golden point before eventually triumphing. On Sunday they were 0-14 after 57 minutes against the might of Penrith and had hardly been within sniffing range of the try line. But, again, they found an extra something to haul Penrith in and go on to a famous victory. On such stories are premierships built. Hunt’s redemption, Reynolds fulfilling what they bought him to do, Mam’s return from injury to add an extra x-factor to the Walsh phenomenon, Stagg’s exclamation point towards a Kangaroos jersey, Haas fulfilling his destiny, Carrigan demonstrating why he’s up there with the very best players in jumper #13, an energetic pack that has developed real starch in defence, their bench is better than Melbourne’s, and ‘Madge’ Maguire who has a habit of winning (think South Sydney, New Zealand, NSW).
I think the Storm are vulnerable. Hughes and Papenhuysen, recently returned from injury, are both one modest bump or stretch away from a game-ending injury, Harry has already used up all of his nine lives this year and is due for one of his stinkers where he tries too hard, Munster can be too easily annoyed and distracted, their pack isn’t working as a unit, the team as a whole gives up far too many penalties. All of the stars have to align perfectly for them to win. And when did such a thing last happen in a Grand Final? By far the best thing in their favour is Bellamy, another proven winner, but he’s not out on the field.
Perhaps it’s a bit like the AFL Grand Final. A favoured team who have had a good run just about all year meets a team that’s been thereabouts for most of the season but has done it the hard way because of injuries. It’s a tussle for quite a while before the ‘been through the fire’ tyros take control and go on to win the prize. Brisbane by >8.
2026 NRL prediction: Penrith will be back as strong as ever but without the burden of being defending premiers. They’ll make the Grand Final and be hot favourites to win it.
NRLW
The Preliminary Finals in the NRLW were no less eye-catching with the undefeated Roosters just getting home over the gutsy Sharks while the Broncos romped to a convincing win on the scoreboard but have issues to confront before Sunday.
The Roosters always seemed in control of their match even if they didn’t dominate the scoreboard. But at 16-6 after 56 minutes they looked safe. The Sharks thought otherwise and scored twice within five minutes to have the game locked up at 16-16. But the Roosters have class and depth so it was no great surprise when stand-in halfback Kelleher stepped up to slot what became the winning field goal with just a few minutes left on the clock. A brave effort from the Sharks but, like their male counterparts, they’re a very good team but not a great team at the moment.
The Broncos were in full control throughout their win over the Knights, the 30-6 scoreline a fair reflection of the game. Their stampede in the first 25 minutes would have left just about any team in the dust. Newcastle seem to have slipped a bit on previous years and if the rumours about Southwell departing are accurate, they could be in for some tough times ahead. Eighteen errors by Brisbane is a real headache for coach Scott Prince. Do that against the Roosters and you’ll be a long way behind.
And so we get the Grand Final we’ve been expecting for weeks between the two clear powerhouses of the competition. These are the questions that have to be answered: Can the Roosters sustain their effort for just one more week or are they, like the Panthers in the NRL, running out of legs at the wrong time? Can they overcome the absence of Aiken, arguably the best player in the competition? Can Brisbane eliminate their high error rate? Can Brigginshaw impose herself on the game as she has done so often when the big games come around? Both sides have attacking weapons galore, so perhaps it’s a case of that old axiom, ‘defence wins games’ – in which case, who has the better defence?
These teams met back in Round 3 with the Roosters just holding on against a fast-finishing Brisbane. Let’s hope that both teams choose to play to their strength which is to attack. The game shapes as a classic. I’ll go with Brisbane because I think they’re reaching their peak at the right time and the Roosters are showing a touch of vulnerability.
International Rugby League
The Pacific Championships will follow the NRL season with matches from 18th October through to the final in Sydney on November 9. All Pacific nations, with the exception of Australia in the men’s competition, will be involved this year after Samoa missed last year’s tournament due to its series against England. To make sure you can get all the dates into your diaries now, here are the full draws for the tournament.
See the men’s draw here.
See the women’s draw here.
And just in case you haven’t written down the Ashes dates, here are the details:
England v Kangaroos
First Test – Saturday 25 October, Wembley Stadium, London
Second Test – Saturday 1 November, Everton Stadium, Liverpool
Third Test – Saturday 8 November, Headingley Stadium, Leeds
All matches will kick off at 2:30pm local time (1:30am Sunday AEDT).
To read our library of rugby league stories click HERE.
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To see the full 2025 season draw for the NRL click HERE.
To see the full 2025 season draw for the NRLW click HERE.
To see the details for State of Origin in 2025 click HERE.
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About Ian Hauser
A relaxed, Noosa-based retiree with a (very) modest sporting CV. A loyal Queenslander, especially when it comes to cricket and rugby league. Enjoys travel, coffee and cake, reading, and has been known to appreciate a glass or three of wine. One of Footy Almanac’s online editors who enjoys the occasional editing opportunity to assist aspiring writers.