Week 5 Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense

Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

Last week’s players followed the script nearly to a T. Josh Allen, Omarion Hampton and Jake Ferguson all exceeded expectations, while Chris Olave and Chase Brown both disappointed. Quinshon Judkins was the lone holdout, posting a monster game and helping to earn himself on the Good List this week. On to Week 5 …

Wan’Dale Robinson (and Darius Slayton), Giants

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: WR18, 9.1 targets, 5.7 catches, 62 yards, .40 TD

With Malik Nabers out for the year, Robinson gets a significant boost to his value, at least in theory. On an offense as bad as the Giants, you have to hope that the whole machine doesn’t fall apart, but generally speaking, when a team with two “alphas” loses one of them, the other sees a 3%+ boost in target share (albeit with some loss in efficiency as defenses start to focus on them more).

It’s a net positive overall, and the matchup against the Saints this week sets him up even beyond his rosier ROS prospects. This game projects as the fastest-paced we’ve seen all year, driven in no small part by the speed at which New Orleans plays. That should hopefully mean lots of volume for the Giants, with Robinson poised to take advantage.

Quinshon Judkins, Browns

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: 19.8 carries, 2.0 receptions, 99 yards, 0.41 TD

Week 5 vs. YTD: RB15 vs. RB24

Judkins is now the clear lead in Cleveland, taking all but three running back carries over the past two weeks. And with Dillon Gabriel taking over for Joe Flacco, this raises both Judkins’ mean projection and his ceiling. While we can’t say Gabriel is for sure an upgrade over Flacco (most rookie QBs are quite bad in their first taste of the NFL), at the very least, I think we can be confident in a favorable change to play-calling.

Historically, teams allow Flacco to pass far more than they do other quarterbacks, even within the same season. And coach Kevin Stefanski has always preferred the run, especially when he has a back he trusts. Plus, teams tend to run the ball about 3% more with a rookie quarterback than they will with a veteran, on average. THE BLITZ is projecting ~4% more runs (in a neutral context) with Gabriel than with Flacco, which moves them from around neutral to the eighth run-heaviest offense in football. And as just 3.5-point underdogs in Week 5, this may be one of the more favorable game scripts for running they see all year. That is, unless Gabriel winds up being good, in which case that’s just icing on the cake.

Rachaad White, Bucs

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: 15.5 carries, 3.6 receptions, 91 yards, 0.62 TD

Week 5 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB44

Given Bucky Irving’s mysterious foot ailment, White is poised to take over the bulk of the backfield work for Tampa Bay — both on the ground and through the air. In 2023, before Irving was on the team, White was a true workhorse, carrying the ball on 69% of the team’s attempts with a 14% target share. It’s possible, perhaps likely, we see him step into a similar role this week, which would make him an RB1 in most formats. It’s unknown how long Irving will be out for, but White’s value is fully contingent on that being the case, so take advantage while you can.

Chase Brown, Bengals

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: 15.8 carries, 2.9 receptions, 89 yards, 0.57 TD

Week 5 vs. ROS: 15.9 PPR points vs. 18.5 PPR points

Man, I love Chase Brown, but it seems like every week, he’s in a terrible spot. And that goes beyond just missing Joe Burrow. But with Burrow out, he runs a higher risk of being scripted out of games, especially against good teams like Detroit in Week 5. As 10.5-point underdogs, the rushing opportunities may be fewer and further between than they will be in several upcoming matchups. And worse yet, the Lions are the single slowest-paced offense in football. Expect lots of rushing and grinding clock, reducing Cincy’s total play volume. If you’re a Brown manager, weather the storm one more week. If you’re not, invite his manager over to watch the games this Sunday, ply him with a couple drinks and see if you can pick Brown up for pennies after another lackluster performance.

Emari Demercado, Cardinals

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: RB26, 8.5 carries, 2.7 receptions, 57 yards, 0.41 TD

James Connor is on IR! Now Trey Benson is on IR! Run and get Emari Demercado! Or, at least, that’s what it feels like every fantasy analyst and their mother is telling us to do this week. But I’m not convinced. Check out this quote (courtesy of the Coachspeak Index Discord) from offensive coordinator Drew Petzing when he was asked whether he saw Demercado as a three-down back now:

“I feel really good about just about everybody we have in that room. I think all of them can handle the rock, I think they can protect on third down, I think they’re dynamic out of the backfield. So, it could be any combination of those three.”

The next day, coach Jonathan Gannon said this when asked the same thing about Demercado:

“I don’t know, we’ll see how the week goes. Feel good about Bam Knight, and Emari and Michael Carter. I’m sure all three of them will play.”

Then there are the quotes from Michael Carter saying that he’s been told he’ll be “starting” this week. Reading the tea leaves, I think we’ll be seeing Carter more on the ground, Demercado more in the air, with Knight mixed in as well. That is to say, Demercado is not playing the same role that Conner and Benson did.

If you are one of the unfortunate saps who drafted both Conner and Benson this year (*raises hand*), playing Demercado (or Carter) will be a better choice than a random backup like Devin Singletary, but in certain leagues, you may have better options available than anyone for Arizona.

Brock Bowers, Raiders

THE BLITZ Week 5 Projection: 8.7 targets, 7.0 receptions, 75 yards, 0.36 TD

Week 5 vs. ROS: 17.0 PPR points vs. 18.6 PPR points

Bowers hasn’t been bad, per se, but he hasn’t been the guy you were hoping for when you drafted him in Round 2 or 3. I think there’s a decent chance this is related to his knee injury, which is still lingering, but which could be past him sooner rather than later. Bowers injured the knee in Week 1 and has been playing with a brace for the past three weeks. According to coach Pete Carroll prior to Week 3, he expected Bowers to wear it for a couple more games (h/t Coachspeak Index Discord): “He’s still wearing a legitimate brace that he can feel. He’ll continue to wear that brace for another couple weeks, to be safe.“

He offered an update on Wednesday, saying …

“We’re still trying to get the ball to Brock Bowers. I think we’re gonna see him better as he gets rid of that brace that he’s wearing in a couple weeks, or whenever that happens. He’s an incredible asset to our team, we would love for him to get the ball more … I think he’s looked more like himself every week.”

This jibes with what injury data analyst Deepak Chona, M.D., has said, that the drop-off in performance due to injuries like this “averages ~4 weeks.” So it seems like we’ll get one, maybe two more weeks of subpar Bowers, after which his value could explode if he goes back to his old, healthy self. The time to buy low is nigh.

Week 5 Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don’t make sense

Tags: