Nick Madden of the Giants and Iliro Smit of the Magpies compete in a ruck contest during the 2025 VFL Round 8 match between Collingwood and GWS Giants at Victoria Park. Picture: Rob Lawson/AFL Photos

Four rounds remain in the Smithy’s VFL home and away season and there 16 teams still a mathematical chance of featuring in the top 10.

Some teams only have three games remaining to book a spot in finals, while others still have four, which will clearly affect the chances of teams making the top four, top six and top 10.

Just eight points separate sides from sixth through to 13th, leaving a host of possibilities and setting up what will be a fascinating final month of the regular season.

Let’s have a look at who might end up in the finals and wildcard spots in a month’s time.

1st, 13-2, 143.5%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Williamstown (10 points, DSV); def Essendon (69, BHCO); def Sandringham (44, BHCO); def North Melbourne (60, BHCO); Bye

TO COME: Bye; Southport (Fankhauser Reserve), Footscray Bulldogs (Box Hill City Oval); Casey Demons (Casey Fields)

SUMMARY: The Hawks have won six-straight games but face two massive challenges after the bye in third-placed Southport and second-placed Footscray. They have an identical record and almost the exact same percentage as eventual premiers Werribee did at this point last year and may only need one more win from their next two games to secure the minor premiership.

2nd, 11-3, 129.2%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Brisbane (26, BHA); Bye; def North Melbourne (16, MWO); def Sydney 14 (TO); def Richmond (45, MS)

TO COME: Essendon (NEC Hangar); GWS Giants (Misson Whitten Oval); Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval); Carlton (Misson Whitten Oval)

SUMMARY: The Bulldogs are in an almost exact situation as they were in with four rounds remaining in 2024, but they will need to navigate some tough fixtures to secure a top-two spot. They do come into this week’s clash with Essendon on a seven-game win streak but will likely need a victory over GWS in Round 19 to confirm back-to-back top-four finishes.

3rd, 10-3-1, 141.3%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Richmond (28, KS); def Brisbane Lions (30, BHA); lost Collingwood (9, FR); lost Sydney (6, FR)

TO COME: Williamstown (Fankhauser Reserve); Box Hill Hawks (Fankhauser Reserve); Werribee (Melbourne Avalon Airport Oval); North Melbourne (Fankhauser Reserve)

SUMMARY: Playing three of their final four matches at Fankhauser Reserve will give the Sharks a golden chance at a top-four finish. It’s still somewhat of a tricky finish, with two of those home games against top-eight sides in Williamstown and Box Hill, while the away trip is a Grand Final rematch against Werribee. But with the second-best percentage in the competition, a top-two finish is very much on the cards if they can win their home games.

4th, 10-5, 125.3%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Essendon (21, WH); lost Geelong (50, ENGIE); def Werribee (19, MAAO); Bye; def Gold Coast Suns (13, ENGIE)

TO COME: Sydney Swans (ENGIE Stadium); Footscray Bulldogs (Misson Whitten Oval); Bye; Gold Coast Suns (People First Stadium)

SUMMARY: The Giants may have to win all three games to sew up a top-four spot, with Collingwood right on their tail and Brisbane and Frankston only one win behind, but with a game in hand. It’s the Giants’ superior percentage over the sides below them on the ladder that puts them in the box seat if they do prevail in only two of their final three matches. At the very least, a maiden VFL finals appearances looks all but secure if the Giants win one of their next three.

5th, 10-5, 104.4%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (15, MWO); def Gold Coast (2, PFS); lost Carlton (4, IKON); def Southport (9, FR); def Sandringham (3, AIA)

TO COME: Frankston (Kinetic Stadium); Williamstown (DSV Stadium); Bye; Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium)

SUMMARY: The turnaround from last year’s nightmare season has been impressive from the Magpies, but there is still work to do to secure a top-six spot and avoid a Wildcard final. Their next two matches away to final contenders Frankston and Williamstown will be telling as to where things lie for Collingwood in 2025. Win both and we could see the Magpies in the top four.

6th, 9-5, 108.8%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Footscray (26, BHA); def Carlton (24, IKON); lost Southport (30, BHA); Bye; def Geelong (32, GMHBA)

TO COME: Gold Coast Suns (People First Stadium); Coburg (Barry Plant Park); Casey Demons (Brighton Homes Arena); Frankston (Kinetic Stadium)

SUMMARY: A very trick final three matches to the regular season makes this week’s QClash a must-win for the Lions, which is no guarantee given the Suns’ improved form over recent weeks. Can potentially sew up a top-six spot by early August but their final-round clash with the Dolphins at Kinetic Stadium could just as easily be a battle to avoid a finish in a Wildcard final.

7th, 9-5, 108.0%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern Bullants (72, GSO); def Port Melbourne (35, KS); Bye; def Coburg (27, BPP); def Essendon (6, KS)

TO COME: Collingwood (Kinetic Stadium); Carlton (Kinetic Stadium); North Melbourne (Arden Street Oval); Brisbane Lions (Kinetic Stadium)

SUMMARY: The quest for back-to-back VFL finals appearances is close to a reality for Frankston. The Dolphins have won four-straight matches and are only outside the top-six on percentage. However, their clash with Collingwood on Saturday night is their first game against a top 10 team since Round 12 and will be a true test of their credentials. It’s still a favourable run home for Frankston, which includes three more games in front of their loyal fans at Kinetic Stadium. If they beat North Melbourne at Arden Street Oval in Round 20 it’s hard to see them missing the finals.

8th, 9-6, 106.7%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Box Hill (10, DSV); lost Northern Bullants (8, GSO); def Port Melbourne (17, ETU); def Sandringham (11, DSV); def Werribee (21, DSV)

TO COME: Southport (Fankhauser Reserve); Collingwood (DSV Stadium); Bye; Richmond (DSV Stadium)

SUMMARY: The Seagulls are back in the pack after consecutive fadeout losses, including a shock defeat to bottom-placed Northern Bullants in Round 16 just when a top-four finish looked on the cards. It’s a difficult three matches to come for Justin Plapp’s men, but two of those matches are at home, where they have a 6-2 record in 2025. Will probably need to win all three games to finish in the top six, and while it looks a difficult task on paper, the Seagulls are certainly capable.

9th, 9-5, 95.4%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Southport (28, KS); def Geelong (5, GMHBA); def Northern Bullants (58, GSO); lost Footscray (45, MS)

TO COME: Werribee (Melbourne Avalon Airport Oval); Gold Coast (People First Stadium), Sandringham (Kinetic Stadium); Williamstown (DSV Stadium)

SUMMARY: Fresh off the bye, the Tigers make a strong case to jump into the top six by season’s end. Their next three matches are all against sides placed 14th or lower, despite two of those opponents being the past two premiers. The Tigers may create an early final against Williamstown in Round 21 to determine sixth spot and a break during the opening weekend off finals.  

10th, 8-6-1, 133.9%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Carlton (108, CF); def Werribee (76, MWO); lost Coburg (3, CF); lost Gold Coast (9, PFS); Bye

TO COME: Sandringham (Casey Fields); Bye; Brisbane Lions (Brighton Homes Arena); Box Hill Hawks (Casey Fields)

SUMMARY: Although they have only eight wins to date, having a draw and the third-highest percentage in the competition creates a range of scenarios for the Demons. A win is likely to come at home against Sandringham this week, but if they can cause an upset against the Lions or Hawks in the last two rounds, a top-six finish isn’t off the table. And having recorded five wins by 70+ points throughout the season, there will be plenty of teams further up the ladder who will hope to avoid the Demons in the finals.

11th, 7-6-1, 102.8%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Sydney (11, TO); Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (16, MWO); lost Box Hill Hawks (60, ASO); def Carlton (1, IKON)

TO COME: Geelong (Arden Street Oval); Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Frankston (Arden Street Oval); Southport (Fankhauser Reserve)

SUMMARY: Just one win in their past five games, including a shock loss to Sydney when 37 points ahead in the opening term, has put the Roos behind the eight-ball as they chase a return to the finals. But they’re not without a chance to push into the top-10 by season’s end. Victories against the Cats and Zebras are non-negotiable and then they’ll need to take at least one scalp against the Dolphins or Sharks to have any chance of earning a spot in a Wildcard Final.

12th, 7-8, 105.5%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Werribee (20, BPP); Bye; def Casey Demons (3, CF); lost Frankston (27, BPP); def Port Melbourne (10, ETU)

TO COME: Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); Brisbane Lions (Barry Plant Park); Port Melbourne (Barry Plant Park); Bye

SUMMARY: Not since 2014 have the Lions recorded an eight-win season or better, but they can accomplish that on Sunday if they are on the right side of the Battle of Bell Street result. They’ll also be favourites against their fiercest foe and again in their final round clash with Port Melbourne. Sandwiched between those games is a clash with the Brisbane Lions, which Coburg must win to have any chance of returning to the finals for the first time in 14 years.

13th, 7-8, 93.4%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Casey (108, CF); lost Brisbane (24, IKON); def Collingwood (4, IKON); def Port Melbourne (11, ETU); lost North Melbourne (1, IKON)

TO COME: Bye; Frankston (Kinetic Stadium); Gold Coast (IKON Park); Footscray Bulldogs (Misson Whitten Oval)

SUMMARY: An improvement on their four-win 2024 campaign and can still sneak into the top 10, although unlikely due to their percentage. To sneak into the finals they’ll need to go three from three. Two of those games are away from home against finals-bound opposition, with the Blues holding a 1-5 record against teams currently in the top 10.

14th, 6-9, 96.7%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Coburg (20, BPP); lost Casey (76, MWO); lost GWS Giants (19, MAAO); Bye; lost Williamstown (21, DSV)

TO COME: Richmond (Melbourne Avalon Airport Oval); Bye; Southport (Melbourne Avalon Airport Oval); Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval)

SUMMARY: A premiership defence is still mathematically possible, but everything would have to go right for the Tigers to just earn a Wildcard spot. Their victory over Coburg in Round 17 was their first triumph since June 1 and while two of their last three games are at home, they will need to pull off consecutive upsets to feature in September action. Even if the Tigers miss the finals, the elevation of Jack Henderson, Flynn Young and Zac Banch to AFL lists makes 2025 a great success.

15th, 6-9, 95.6%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (15, MWO); def GWS Giants (50, ENGIE); lost Richmond (5, GMHBA); Bye; lost Brisbane Lions (32, GMHBA)

TO COME: North Melbourne (Arden Street Oval); Bye; Essendon (GMHBA); Sydney (Tramway Oval)

SUMMARY: Werribee’s mathematical path to the post-season is a similar one for Geelong. The difference however is that the Cats don’t face a side that currently sits in the top 10 for the remainder of the season, with two of those in the bottom-four. But having won just one of the past four, they’ll need to arrest their form if they are to surge into the top 10.

16th, 5-8-1, 96.6%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Port Melbourne (13, ETU); lost Collingwood (2, PFS); def Essendon (14, NEC); def Casey (9, PFS); lost GWS Giants (13, ENGIE)

TO COME: Brisbane Lions (People First Stadium); Richmond (People First Stadium); Carlton (IKON Park); GWS Giants (People First Stadium)

SUMMARY: The Suns’ 13-point win over Port Melbourne last week keeps their incredibly slim finals hopes alive. Three of their last four games are at People First Stadium which will help despite their 3-3 record at the venue in 2025. However, all three opponents in those games are current top 10 sides, which may work to the Suns’ advantage given the position they find themselves in.

17th, 4-10-1, 96.8%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Gold Coast Suns (13, ETU); lost Frankston (35, KS); lost Williamstown (17, ETU); lost Carlton (11, ETU); lost Coburg (10, ETU)

TO COME: Bye; Northern Bullants (ETU Stadium); Coburg (Barry Plant Park); Collingwood (ETU Stadium)

SUMMARY: It will be a fourth-straight season without finals for the Borough, with their fate all but confirmed following the defeat to Gold Coast last week. They’ve fallen to defeat in five-consecutive games but can end that streak in a favourable clash with the Northern Bullants, who they defeated by 99 points back in Round 6, following this week’s bye.

18th, 3-11, 86.2%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost GWS Giants (21, WH); lost Box Hill Hawks (69, BHCO); lost Gold Coast Suns (14, NEC); Bye; lost Frankston (6, KS)

TO COME: Footscray Bulldogs (NEC Hangar); Sydney Swans (Tramway Oval); Geelong (GMHBA Stadium); Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)

SUMMARY: The Bombers went 4-0 to end the 2024 campaign to just miss the top 10, and they will look to finish the season in a similar fashion this year. They will need to cause a massive upset this Saturday against the second-placed Bulldogs to win their first game since Round 7. But the fixture then becomes more favourable, with matches against Geelong, Sydney and Sandringham to round out the season.

19th, 3-12, 69.2%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: def North Melbourne (11, TO); lost Sandringham (60, TBBO); lost Northern Bullants (7, BISP); lost Footscray Bulldogs (14, TO); def Southport (6, FR)

TO COME: GWS Giants (ENGIE); Essendon (Tramway Oval); Bye; Geelong (Tramway Oval)

SUMMARY: Another inconsistent season for the Swans. That’s been evident across the past month, where they have claimed big scalps over North Melbourne and Southport, challenged Footscray, but gone down to the only two sides below them on the ladder in Sandringham and Northern Bullants. They lost in their previous meetings with the Giants and Bombers earlier this year but after their victory over the Roos, the Swans will hope to keep the run going and end the year on a high. A chance to put a dent in the Giants top-four hopes is a massive carrot this week.

20th, 2-11-1, 73.8%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Sydney Swans (60, TBBO); lost Box Hill Hawks (44, BHCO); lost Williamstown (11, DSV); lost Collingwood (3, AIA)

TO COME: Casey Demons (Casey Fields); North Melbourne (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Richmond (Kinetic Stadium); Essendon (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)

SUMMARY: Despite their rousing triumph against the Swans a fortnight ago, the Zebras need to win all four remaining games to avoid their lowest win total since the VFA became the VFL in 1996. Although that seems unlikely, the club still has winnable matches to come in 2025, most notably against 18th-placed Essendon in Round 21 in the final game of the St Kilda alignment.

21st, 2-13, 45.4%

PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Frankston (72, GSO); def Williamstown (8, GSO); def Sydney Swans (7, BISP); lost Richmond (58 GSO); Bye

TO COME: Coburg (Genis Steel Oval); Port Melbourne (ETU); Werribee (Genis Steel Oval)

SUMMARY: The Bullants will see all three remaining games as winnable, especially after the thrill of their back-to-back triumphs earlier this month. Their best chances look to be in their next two matches against the Lions and the Borough, given they have been on the receiving end of some heavy defeats to Werribee in recent times. One more triumph will prevent a third consecutive two-win season and could see them avoid a bottom-place finish.