Are the Edmonton Oilers really the NHL’s top team? Will Mitch Marner win more games playing in Las Vegas this season than his old teammates do in Toronto? Which teams are due for the sharpest rises and declines in 2025-26?
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has answered these questions with his point-projection model and gone deep on each result in our annual team previews, along with Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille.
From the Chicago Blackhawks to the Edmonton Oilers, what do the experts who know each team best think of the model’s analysis? Are the projections too high, too low or just about right?
Here’s what they said.
Chicago BlackhawksProjected points: 70.8Verdict: About right
Unless the young players take a massive step this season, it’s difficult to envision the Blackhawks climbing much higher in the standings than in the past few seasons. They just didn’t do much in the offseason to improve the team’s offense and will be depending on a very young defense. The team could be 10 points better than last season and still be among the worst teams in the league. — Scott Powers
San Jose SharksProjected points: 73.2Verdict: Too high
Getting to 73 points is a reachable goal for the Sharks. Especially if Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith and the equally dynamic William Eklund continue their rise and the goaltending is stabilized and improved between Yaroslav Askarov and Alex Nedeljkovic. But a 21-point jump is still quite a bump. What might make them fall short is if GM Mike Grier conducts another deadline sell-off with all the pending UFA veterans in his lineup. They’ll be assuredly better, but maybe not 21 points better. — Eric Stephens
Pittsburgh PenguinsProjected points: 74.1Verdict: Too low
The Penguins are projected to have the third-lowest point total this season. I think this is entirely possible and I do not believe the Penguins are good. But as currently constructed, I don’t think they’re the third-worst team in the league. Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell and Erik Karlsson form a nice foundation in terms of offense. The Penguins will score a lot of goals. They’ll give up even more. If Rust, Rakell or Karlsson — or some combination of the three — get traded sooner rather than later, then yes, this could be a bottom-three team. — Josh Yohe
Kraken goalie Matt Murray has looked sturdy in the preseason. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
Seattle KrakenProjected points: 76.6Verdict: Too low
Seattle lacks top-end talent, and I’m concerned about its backup goaltending, although Matt Murray looking sturdy in the preseason is an interesting development. But the Kraken are a relatively deep team with good players at every key spot. Throw in some upside with a young group of players, including Berkly Catton, who looks ready, and I see the Kraken as an 80-85 point team instead of a proper bottom-feeder. — Thomas Drance
Nashville PredatorsProjected points: 78.6Verdict: About right
How much does psychology matter? A lot, the Predators hope — so much that it can overcome the physiological realities of this aging roster, marginally improved if at all in the offseason after a 68-point disaster of a season. The Preds entered last season with unbridled hype, which helped the early struggles snowball. Will zero expectations help these guys get gritty and competitive again? Maybe? — Joe Rexrode
Philadelphia FlyersProjected points: 79.1Verdict: About right
While I tend to think this is a tad low, it’s not all that far off. Until the Flyers show that they can get reliable goaltending, there’s no reason to think they can be in the mix for a playoff spot. That said, this does look like a stronger roster going into a season than it did last season, particularly if Trevor Zegras can successfully transition back to the middle, and younger players such as Matvei Michkov, Tyson Foerster and Cam York continue to improve. — Kevin Kurz
Boston BruinsProjected points: 79.9Verdict: About right
Jeremy Swayman and Joonas Korpisalo should be dependable in net. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm are good No. 1 and 2 defensemen. The Bruins have a good No. 1 line with Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm and David Pastrnak. There’s not much else. They will struggle to score. — Fluto Shinzawa
Calgary FlamesProjected points: 80.8Verdict: About right
It will be tough for the Flames to make the playoffs as they continue their retool/rebuild. The Pacific Division remains strong at the top, and the Flames didn’t do much to address scoring concerns on their roster. Dustin Wolf has shown he can be relied upon as a starting goalie, and their youth has shown promise. But the Flames will have to surprise many with their offense, which finished last in goals at five-on-five last year. — Julian McKenzie
Anaheim DucksProjected points: 81.9Verdict: Too low
Talk is cheap when it comes to the Ducks being a team on the rise. It’s time to prove it after years of stumbling, following a period of bottoming out and rebuilding. They have an interesting mix of young impact players who need to take another step as leaders and veterans who have previously been part of winning clubs. Joel Quenneville hasn’t forgotten how to coach, and the bet is he’ll get more out of this group. And if Lukas Dostal stars in net, Anaheim could find its way into the postseason. Too low might be too conservative here. — Eric Stephens
New York IslandersProjected points: 83.3Verdict: Too low
The Islanders are retooling under Mathieu Darche’s direction, so it’s not surprising to see them outside of the playoff picture. That being said … there’s a way to get above the 83.3-point mark, even with this roster. A full season of Mathew Barzal (who was excellent last year) should help give the Islanders a spark up front. Plus, Ilya Sorokin’s excellence could steal this team a few more wins, too. So sliding just above the 85-point mark (which the model gives a 17 percent chance of) feels right. — Shayna Goldman
Detroit Red WingsProjected points: 83.4Verdict: About right
I’d go a little higher, as I don’t see the Red Wings going backward from last season (86 points), but it’s right there in the range of likeliest outcomes. Detroit only made a couple of moves this summer, and thus will be relying on internal improvements for any gains. John Gibson should help in goal, but somewhere between 82 and 90 points feels about right. — Max Bultman
Columbus Blue JacketsProjected points: 85.7Verdict: Too low
A backslide, which is what Dom has predicted, is always possible. But there are three easy reasons why that seems unlikely for the Blue Jackets, who had 89 points last season. 1) Their wave of young talents — Adam Fantilli (31 goals), Kirill Marchenko (31), Kent Johnson (24) and Dmitri Voronkov (23) — are all a year stronger, wiser and more confident. 2) Boone Jenner, Sean Monahan and Yegor Chinakhov all missed a significant number of games with injuries and they still won 40 games. 3) Goaltender Jet Greaves has a chance to push Elvis Merzlikins aside in net. — Aaron Portzline
Vancouver CanucksProjected points: 89.9Verdict: About right
The projected point total for the Canucks is almost certainly off by 5-10 points. It’s about right, though, because it feels like a reasonable base case for one of the NHL’s most volatile bets. I won’t be surprised at all if Vancouver pushes for 100 points with Elias Pettersson bouncing back, Thatcher Demko staying healthy, Quinn Hughes dominating and things coming together. I also won’t be surprised at all if Vancouver falls back to 80 points, given its concerning lack of scoring. But 90ish points is a fair enough middle bar, and in line with the betting markets. — Thomas Drance
Buffalo SabresProjected points: 90.1Verdict: About right
Dom’s projection of 90.1 points would be a dramatic improvement for the Sabres, but he’s also projecting them to be 10th in the Eastern Conference. This feels on-the-nose for where the Sabres are heading into this season. On paper and on the ice, they look like a better team than last season. But will they improve enough to overtake other Eastern Conference contenders and make the playoffs? They could be a bubble team right up until the end of the season. — Matthew Fairburn
St. Louis BluesProjected points: 90.3Verdict: Too low
Dom made a lot of good points about the expectations and concerns for the Blues in his 2025-26 season preview. His analytics paint an understandable picture of the players based on the ages of the veterans and small sample sizes for the younger ones. But 90.3 points is a tad too low for a group coming off a strong second half, including a near upset of Winnipeg in the playoffs, and a team that will have Jim Montgomery from the onset. Dom acknowledged these facts in his article, but I still had fun telling him what he got wrong! — Jeremy Rutherford
Utah MammothProjected points: 90.5Verdict: About right
A 90-point projection may seem low at first glance. After all, the Mammoth are a team with tons of exciting young talent that could exceed expectations, and if things break right, it’s easy to see them knocking on the door of a 100-point season. However, relatively speaking, Dom’s model has Utah rated as the eighth-best team in the West and with a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. In other words, the model is expecting them to be in the thick of the playoff race with a good chance of actually breaking through, which sounds about right. — Harman Dayal
Montreal CanadiensProjected points: 92.1Verdict: About right
The Canadiens might get a few more than the 92.1 points the model projects, but having them as the 16th-ranked team in the NHL is in the ballpark of where I think they might finish the season. It will be tough for the Canadiens to get back to the playoffs because many of the teams that missed last year also got better. There is definitely potential for the Canadiens to outperform this mark because of how much talent they have and how young that talent is. But with youth comes inconsistency and unpredictability. This projection seems to strike a fair balance between that talent and that youth. — Arpon Basu
Can Vladimir Tarasenko reignite his offense for the Wild? (Matt Blewett / Imagn Images)
Minnesota WildProjected points: 93.0Verdict: Too low
This is a team that somehow managed two 100-point seasons and made playoffs three times during the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyout-pain years, and last season, the Wild were tied for most points in the NHL in mid-December when they were inundated with injuries, particularly Kirill Kaprizov’s. If healthy, this is a good team. Mats Zuccarello’s injury, which will cause him to miss two months, is a concern. If Liam Ohgren and Danila Yurov don’t produce and Vladimir Tarasenko doesn’t reignite, Bill Guerin will have to address second-line production. — Michael Russo
Washington CapitalsProjected points: 93.8Verdict: Too low
The Caps got peak performance (or something close to it) from a pretty huge chunk of their roster in 2024-25. They’re returning, largely, the same group. That’s a good thing — but I’d still expect some regular-season drop-off. Somewhere between the projection and another 111-point season sounds right. — Sean Gentille
Ottawa SenatorsProjected points: 94.2Verdict: About right
The Senators looked primed to return to the playoffs after making it last season for the first time in eight years. They’ll fight with teams such as Montreal to remain afloat in a wild-card spot. But depending on what happens with the Panthers, there’s a world where they can jump into a top-three division spot, too. — Julian McKenzie
New York RangersProjected points: 94.2Verdict: About right
While the Rangers still have significant flaws, I do believe they’ll improve upon last season’s 85-point finish with a new-coach bump from Mike Sullivan. I see them in the Eastern Conference’s congested 6-10 range, setting up a potentially tight race for the final few playoff spots. — Vincent Z. Mercogliano
Los Angeles KingsProjected points: 94.8Verdict: Too low
For all the dismay over their inability to get out of the first round, the Kings have averaged 102 points over the last four seasons. They’ve been a perfectly capable team, just not among the NHL’s elite. The fourth line should be better, the defense might be a little worse and that could make duplicating last season’s franchise mark of 105 points difficult. But it’s probably not wise to write off L.A. in Anze Kopitar’s final season (or a Drew Doughty comeback season) — at least until Game 1 in April. — Eric Stephens
Florida PanthersProjected points: 96.0Verdict: About right
The Panthers had 98 points a year ago and went on to win the Stanley Cup. The road to a three-peat just got that much harder without Aleksander Barkov, but forecasting a bigger dip than this — and a potential playoff miss — feels ill-advised given the talent still on the roster. Florida has a full season of Seth Jones and Brad Marchand, plus a pile of LTIR cap space for GM Bill Zito to utilize, so we’re not writing them off by any means. Get in and they can win. — James Mirtle
New Jersey DevilsProjected points: 97.6Verdict: About right
This projects a small jump from the Devils’ 91-point 2024-25. That feels fair given roster additions and the team’s key players (namely, Jack Hughes) starting the year healthy. If the team can get good injury luck — far from a guarantee — it could definitely have over 100 points. — Peter Baugh
Winnipeg JetsProjected points: 100.5Verdict: About right
I’ll resist the urge to gently tease my colleagues for the 16 paragraphs they wrote about a Carolina Hurricane in their Jets preview but their ultimate conclusions do make sense to me: Winnipeg is probably a 100-point team that could be a conference contender if Connor Hellebuyck is great (again), Jonathan Toews is up to the 2C job and they survive injuries to Dylan Samberg and Adam Lowry. Another big key? The league’s No. 1 power play has to deliver another top-10 performance. — Murat Ates
Toronto Maple LeafsProjected points: 101.2Verdict: About right
I had 100-101 points in my mind for this year’s Leafs team, pretty much smack on Dom’s projection and a slight dip from last season’s 108-point season. What might prevent that slippage? A return to MVP form for Auston Matthews, strong performances from depth performers such as Matias Maccelli, Scott Laughton and Nicolas Roy, sustained excellence from 35-year-old John Tavares and a crease that remains elite. The loss of exceptional two-way talent Mitch Marner makes some kind of step back more likely. — Jonas Siegel
Dallas StarsProjected points: 103.1Verdict: Too low
Perennial contenders typically learn to go on cruise control during the regular season, but there are several reasons to think Dallas might be a little more motivated to go all-out all year. A new coach in Glen Gulutzan, a full season of Mikko Rantanen, the bitter taste of a third straight postseason ending just short of a Stanley Cup Final and the ghastly way Dallas limped to the finish line last April — with seven mostly non-competitive losses in a row that caused a lot of consternation among players and fans alike — should be enough to light a fire under one of the best teams in the league. — Mark Lazerus
Carolina HurricanesProjected points: 103.8Verdict: About right
The Hurricanes still have their question marks — Can Logan Stankoven be their No. 2 center? Can the goaltending stay healthy? Will the changes on defense be a net positive? — but overall, they’re top to bottom the best team in Metro and should again push past the 100-point mark this season. — Cory Lavalette
Vegas Golden KnightsProjected points: 104.0Verdict: About right
This projection feels spot on for Vegas. The Golden Knights are coming off a 110-point season, and with the major offseason changes of adding Mitch Marner and losing Alex Pietrangelo, it feels like they may take some time to jell and establish new roles. They should still be a playoff team without much issue, but I could see them finishing second in the Pacific. — Jesse Granger
How will a healthy Gabriel Landeskog at the start of the season impact the Avalanche? (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Colorado AvalancheProjected points: 105.1Verdict: About right
Last season, Colorado reached 102 points, and that was with a disastrous start in net. This year, things look much better in the crease, even with Mackenzie Blackwood’s injury. The Avalanche also get a full year with Gabriel Landeskog, so I expect a slight uptick in points from 2024-25. — Jesse Granger
Tampa Bay LightningProjected points: 107.3Verdict: About right
The Lightning are starting the year in a stronger position than last year, with a deeper forward group with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde in the mix. Pair that with an elite core that absolutely crushed it last year, and there’s a lot to like in Tampa Bay, even with their ages in mind. Factor in the Panthers’ injury woes, and there is a very clear path to the top of the Eastern Conference for the Lightning. This is one of the top contenders in the league. — Shayna Goldman
Edmonton OilersProjected points: 109.0Verdict: About right
There are several question marks with this group: goaltending, managing to replace the production of a slew of veteran wingers, missing Zach Hyman for the first month of the season and Connor McDavid’s contractual status. Still, the Oilers should be a bit better than last season. Last year’s preseason Presidents’ Trophy favorites attained just 101 points as they largely underachieved and most players underwhelmed. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
(Top photo of Connor Bedard and Connor McDavid: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)