So I’m supposed to be giving you some picks for Week 6 right now, but before that can happen, I need to make sure that CBS Sports hasn’t banned me from making picks after what happened in Week 5. 

I had my worst week of the season and it wasn’t close. I went 4-10 with my picks. I choked harder than the Cardinals, which is saying a lot, because they blew an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter against a winless Titans team. Over the past 24 hours, I’ve completely re-evaluated my process for picking games. I’ve told my kids they are staying with their grandparents this week (Can’t have any distractions) and I’m no longer going to automatically pick every bird team to win. When I went 15-1 back in Week 2, it was because of the bird teams. This week, the bird teams let me down. I hate birds. 

So will any of these changes actually make my picks better?

Let’s get to the Week 6 picks and find out. 

Actually, before we get to the picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you don’t click over, I won’t be offended. However, I will be offended if you don’t sign up for CBSSports.com’s NFL newsletter, which I’m in charge of writing. 

If you do sign up, it’s like an early Christmas present for both of us: I get more sign-ups and you get an email from me twice a week. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. I promise that link takes you to the newsletter sign up page and not to the sign up page for the cat newsletter I’m thinking about starting. 

Alright, let’s get to the picks.

Bet NFL Week 6 games at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Click here to get started:

NFL Week 6 picksArizona (2-3) at Indianapolis (4-1)

1 p.m. ET (Fox,  Fubo, try for free)

Before I get to this pick, I need to vent, because if I don’t vent, then I’ll rage eat a bag of Funyuns and that’s the last thing that anyone needs right now. I joined a survivor pool for the first time ever this year and I’m now OUT of it after taking the CARDINALS TO WIN in Week 5. On paper, it seemed like a brilliant pick: They were playing at home against the worst team in football. 

With 13 minutes left to play in the fourth quarter, the Cardinals were up 21-6 and I remember thinking, “Wow, survivor pools are so easy. This is free money. Why don’t I do these more often?” 

But then guess what happened? The Cardinals suffered the most inexplicable collapse by any team in NFL history. I’m going to show you three plays from this game that defy all common sense. First, Kyler Murray lost a fumble after a shotgun snap WENT OFF HIS FACE. 

OK, you know what? Those things happen and I bet the Cardinals quickly learned their lesson and didn’t make anymore embarrassing mistakes in the game. Nope, not the case. It got even worse after that thanks to Emari Demercado, who lost a fumble out of the end zone after he started celebrating early on what should have been an easy touchdown. 

The good news for Demercado is that he’ll have someone to swap stories with this week because Indy’s Adonai Mitchell made the exact same mistake earlier this season. 

Anyway, even after that mistake, the Cardinals were still up nine with under five minutes left to play and they appeared to ice the game with an interception, but then they fumbled the interception and the Titans recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchdown. 

I’m not sure what the NFL record is for most blunders in a single half, but I have to think that the Cardinals just set it. Every time I didn’t think that things could get any worse, they got worse. And then, this all ended with the Cardinals losing on a game-winning field goal as time expired for the third straight week, making them the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games on a kick that came as time expired. 

If I was still in my survivor pool, I would take the Colts this week and that’s mainly because I’m not sure I can ever pick the Cardinals to win another game ever again. The only good news for the Cardinals this week is that they won’t have to worry about losing on a last-second field goal because the Colts are going to win by double-digits. 

The Cardinals have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this year, even though they’ve faced one of the easier QB slates. Here’s who Arizona has faced so far: 

Daniel Jones might throw for 600 yards. 

Heading into Week 6, the Colts are the only team I’m still perfect picking this year: I’m 5-0 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread picking their games, and after a disastrous Week 5, they’re the only team I’m confident in picking. 

There is no way the Cardinals are going to be mentally recovered from suffering the most inexplicable collapse in NFL history. I mean, I didn’t even play in the game and I’m not mentally recovered.  

PICK: Colts 30-20 over Cardinals | Colts -6.5 | Odds via BetMGM. Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets at BetMGM Sportsbook if your first bet doesn’t win. Click here to get started:

L.A. Chargers (3-2) at Miami (1-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m not sure what the hottest thing on earth is, but at this point, it might be Mike McDaniel’s seat. The Dolphins‘ head coach was already on the hot seat heading into the season and nothing will heat a seat up faster than blowing a 17-0 lead to the Carolina Panthers, which is exactly what the Dolphins did in Week 5. 

The Dolphins will now be hosting a Chargers team this week that’s on the verge of throwing away their 3-0 start. Two weeks ago, the Chargers were undefeated and they had everyone convinced that Justin Herbert was going to lead them to an AFC West title on his way to winning the MVP award.   

The problem with the Chargers is that they’re the Chargers and they always find a way to Charger things up. Since starting 3-0, the Chargers have lost two straight games, including one that came to the Giants. 

Basically, this is a big game for both teams: If the Chargers lose, they’d drop to 3-3 and I’m not sure I’d be able to take them seriously as a playoff contender. If the Dolphins lose, McDaniel might be fired before he finishes his postgame press conference. 

The best thing about the Chargers and Dolphins playing each other is that there’s a 100% chance that their fans will be fighting this week over who has the better quarterback. The Dolphins could have taken Herbert with the fifth overall pick in 2020, but they went with Tua Tagovailoa instead (Herbert went one pick later to L.A.). Dolphins fans are still sad. 

Dolphins fans will probaly be even more regretful about the decision when Herbert throws his third touchdown pass on Sunday, which I thnk is going to happen. Herbert definitely has the more favorable matchup since he’ll be going up against a Dolphins defense that is surrendering a 117.6 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. To put that in perspective, the highest career passer rating by any QB in NFL history is 103. On average, the Dolphins are letting opposing quarterbacks do 14 points better than that in every game. On the flip side, opposing quarterbacks only have a 77.3 passer rating against the Chargers, so don’t be surprised if Tua struggles some in this game. 

PICK: Chargers 27-20 over Dolphins | Chargers -4.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get 20 100% profit boosts with the promo code CBS20X. Get started here:

Tennessee (1-4) at Las Vegas (1-4)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox,  Fubo, try for free)

I know we’re only five games into the season, but I’ve already seen enough of the Raiders offense this year to know that whatever they’re doing doesn’t seem to be working. The Raiders tried to fix their offense this year by making a trade for Geno Smith, but adding him might have actually made things worse. Smith has thrown nine interceptions through five weeks, which is the most in the NFL.  

Things have gotten so bad that Raiders super fan Damian Lillard has already given up on Smith. The NBA star wants to see his team make a trade for Shedeur Sanders. 

You know things are going poorly when fans are calling for an unproven rookie to replace your starting quarterback. The one upside this week is that the Raiders might be able to win without Smith throwing a single pass. Heading into Week 6, the Titans are surrendering an average of 146.8 rushing yards per game this year, which is the third-worst total in the NFL. 

If you have a talented running back, he should be able to find room to run against the Titans and the Raiders have Ashton Jeanty, who’s averaged nearly 90 yards per game over the past three weeks. With Smith struggling, Jeanty will probably be a big part of the game plan this week, or the only part. If the Raiders are smart, they’ll just let him carry the ball 57 times. 

This feels like a game the Raiders should win, but I also thought that last week when the Cardinals played the Titans and NOW I’M OUT OF MY SURVIVOR POOL FOR THAT, so what do I know. Have I mentioned that I hate survivor pools? 

PICK: Raiders 19-16 over Titans | Titans +4.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets after a winning $5 wager:

San Francisco (4-1) at Tampa Bay (4-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS,  Paramount+)

If you tune into this game on Sunday, you’ll be witnessing NFL history because the 49ers trip to Tampa Bay will mark the first game ever between two teams who are both coming off five straight games that were all decided by six points or less. 

If you have watched either of these two teams play this year, then you probably already know how this game is going to go: The Buccaneers will fall behind early before clawing their way back into the game and then someone will win with a wild play in the final minute. 

if you have a weak heart, you may want to sit this one out. As a matter of fact, if you have a weak heart, you probably shouldn’t be watching the Buccaneers play at all, because every game they play goes down to the wire. The Buccaneers have four wins and all four of those wins have been decided in the final minute. 

Week 1 (Bucs 23-20 over Falcons): Emeka Egbuka 25-yd Rec TD with 59 seconds left
Week 2 (Bucs 20-19 over Texans): Rachaad White 2-yd Rush TD with 6 seconds left
Week 3 (Bucs 29-27 over Jets): Chase McLaughlin 36-yd GW FG as time expired
Week 5 (Bucs 38-35 over Seahawks): Chase McLaughlin 39-yd GW FG as time expired

They’re the only team in NFL history to win four of their first five games by three points or less. Every time the Bucs look to be left for dead in a game, Baker Mayfield breaks out his defibrillator and single-handedly resuscitates the entire team. Mayfield has played like an MVP candidate through five weeks: He has the third-most passing yards in the NFL this year and he’s tied for the third-most touchdown passes. 

As good as the Buccaneers are at throwing the ball, the 49ers are actually better. Despite using two different quarterbacks this year (Mac Jones and Brock Purdy), the 49ers are still leading the NFL in passing yards per game at 290.6. Sometimes, it feels like Kyle Shanahan can throw anyone out there to play QB in his offense and that person will throw for 300 yards. I would love to see what Jake Browning could do in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. 

These two teams are so even that I could see this game going either way, but I’m going to give the 49ers a slight edge since they’ll be coming off a 10-day break after playing on Thursday night in Week 5, or should I give the Buccaneers the edge because they’re playing at home? 

My gut says 49ers, but my gut also got me knocked out of my survivor pool, so I don’t know what to believe anymore. 

PICK: 49ers 27-24 over Buccaneers | 49ers +3 |  Odds via BetMGM. Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets at BetMGM Sportsbook if your first bet doesn’t win. Click here to get started:

Detroit (4-1) at Kansas City (2-3)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC,  Fubo, try for free)

I’m not saying I’m concerned about the Chiefs just yet, but I’m not saying I’m not. Heading into Week 6, the Chiefs already have more losses than they had during the entire 2024 season. Also, they’re 0-3 in one-score games this year, which is a stat that I can’t even comprehend, because Patrick Mahomes doesn’t lose one score games. Last year, they went 11-0 in games decided by one score.

I think that I’m trying to say is that this year’s Chiefs are not last year’s Chiefs. 

The Chiefs have already lost to the Chargers, Eagles and Jaguars, and now, they get their toughest test of the season in the Detroit Lions. The Lions will be rolling into Kansas City on a four-game winning streak, which is currently the longest in the NFL. 

During their streak, the Lions have averaged 40.3 points per game. Most teams have yet to score 40 points in a single game, the Lions are AVERAGING that over the past four weeks. The Lions offense is so good because it has 10 different ways to beat you. The Lions are the only team in the NFL that has TWO running backs (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) who have both gone over 300 rushing yards on the season (To put that in perspective, the Chiefs don’t even have a single player who has rushed for more than 200 yards). The Lions rushing tandem could be a problem for a Chiefs defense that has struggled to stop the run this year, and even if they stop the run, Montgomery might just go out and throw a touchdown pass. 

The Lions also have three different players who have recorded at least 200 receiving yards through five weeks and one of those players is Jameson Williams, who leads the NFL in yards per catch at 20.3. 

The Lions also have a defense that can get after the passer, which is something the Chiefs haven’t really had to deal with over the past few weeks. Since Week 2, the Chiefs haven’t played a single team that ranks in the top-25 in the NFL in sacks. The Lions have 16 sacks on the season, which ranks second in the league this year. That could be trouble for Kansas City. 

This game feels like it’s going to be a shootout, so I’m going to take the team that has more firepower, and for once, it’s not the team that Patrick Mahomes is playing for.  

PICK: Lions 30-27 over Chiefs | Lions +1.5 | Odds via DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a wining $5 wager. Click here to get started:

NFL Week 6 picks: All the rest

Eagles 20-17 over Giants
Broncos 27-17 over Jets
Steelers 23-20 over Browns
Cowboys 30-16 over Panthers
Patriots 27-16 over Saints
Rams 34-24 over Ravens
Seahawks 27-24 over Jaguars
Packers 27-13 over Bengals
Bills 30-23 over Falcons
Commanders 34-27 over Bears

BYES: Texans, Vikings

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Lions would beat the Bengals by double digits and guess what happened? The Lions beat the Bengals by double digits. After watching the Bengals get blown out 76-13 in Jake Browning’s first two starts, I felt pretty confident that the Bengals had no chance in his game, which begs the question: If I was so sure they were going to lose, why weren’t the Lions my SURVIVOR POOL PICK? That’s a question I’ve tried to answer for the past 72 hours and I have nothing. I think Week 5 broke me. 

Worst pick: As I already mentioned, this was my worst picks week of the year and one of my worst weeks ever. I picked the Cardinals, Dolphins, Eagles, Chargers and Giants all to win and they were all leading by DOUBLE DIGITS at some point in their game, only to lose. 

DO YOU SEE THAT????? EVERY SINGLE BAD BEAT WENT AGAINST ME. I also took the Chargers to win and they blew a 10-point lead in a loss to the Commanders. 

I also picked the Seahawks and Browns to win and both of those teams lost after letting their opponent score in the final 30 seconds of their respective games. That is EIGHT games that went against me. 

And let’s not forget, I’M ALSO OUT OF MY SURVIVOR POOL. If you need me, I will be crying in a corner somewhere. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’m going to start sharing that information with you now that we’ve got five full weeks of information. Here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I’m 5-0 picking this year (Straight up): Colts
Teams I’m 4-1 picking this year (Straight up): Jets, Bills, Bengals, Titans, Texans, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers (3-1), Cowboys (3-1-1)

My worst team this year (Straight up): Packers (1-2-1)

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 5: 4-10
SU overall: 49-28-1

Against the spread in Week 5: 5-9
ATS overall: 35-43

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s sitting in a dark corner trying to come up with a survivor pool strategy for 2026.