On Nov. 7, the Recording Academy will announce the nominees for the 2026 Grammy Awards, which means there’s a little less than a month to make predictions and make your best guess about which of music’s biggest stars could be taking the stage in Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena on Feb. 1.
As we get down to the wire, predictions on Gold Derby are changing up more often users lock in their votes.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest trends in Grammy Award predictions less than a month out from nominations.
Things are looking down
Across the four categories already in Gold Derby’s prediction center for the 2026 Grammy Awards, nearly all of the top contenders are down in their nomination odds, with only a handful of artists trending upward. So what gives?
As more artists enter into the conversation, the share of votes for those previously ranked is naturally going to go down. So rather than — for instance — Lady Gaga having a bad week in terms of the odds, she’s simply having to share with more contenders.
Album of the Year
1.
2.
3.
Bad Bunny
Debà Tirar Más Fotos
4.
Sabrina Carpenter
Man’s Best Friend
5.
Elton John and Brandi Carlile
Who Believes in Angels?
6.
The Weeknd
Hurry Up Tomorrow
7.
Tyler the Creator
Chromakopia
8.
9.
Jon Batiste
Beethoven Blues
10.
11.
Miley Cyrus
Something Beautiful
12.
13.
14.
15.
But that strong trend downward does have the benefit of making any upward movement even more notable.
Miley makes moves
With every artist currently ranked above her heading down, Miley Cyrus‘ nine-percent gain in Album of the Year is an outlier worth paying attention to. The three-time winner and 2024 Record of the Year winner for “Flowers” returned this year with her album Something Beautiful, the follow-up to her Album of the Year-nominated Endless Summer Vacation.
Cyrus is also looking competitive in both Record and Song of the Year with “End of the World,” which is nearing the top 10 in both categories.
Record of the Year
1.
2.
Kendrick Lamar and SZA
Luther
3.
Sabrina Carpenter
Manchild
4.
Rosé and Bruno Mars
APT.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Elton John and Brandi Carlile
Never Too Late
11.
12.
Miley Cyrus
End of the World
13.
Gracie Abrams
That’s So True
14.
KPop Demon Hunters
Golden
15.
The Weeknd feat. Playboi Carti
Timeless
Song of the Year
1.
Kendrick Lamar and SZA
Luther
2.
3.
Sabrina Carpenter
Manchild
4.
5.
6.
7.
Elton John and Brandi Carlile
Never Too Late
8.
9.
Rosé and Bruno Mars
APT.
10.
11.
Gracie Abrams
That’s So True
12.
13.
Miley Cyrus
End of the World
14.
KPop Demon Hunters
Golden
15.
Olivia Dean surges
“Ordinary” singer Alex Warren may currently be on top of the Best New Artist category thanks to his inescapable single, but there’s another name to keep an eye on as the category firms up.
Similar to Cyrus’ climb in Album of the Year, English artist Olivia Dean is the highest ranked contender who is still trending upward. The “Man I Need” singer recently added nine percentage points to her odds, bringing her closer to nomination range.
New Artist
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
