Rigetti Computing’s stock surged 30% on July 16 after achieving 99.5% gate fidelity on its 36-qubit modular system—cutting error rates in half versus its previous 84-qubit chip. This breakthrough validates their chiplet-based architecture as a scalable solution for practical quantum computing. Despite Rigetti’s stock already experiencing a remarkable 1,300% surge in the past twelve months, the question remains: what factors could drive the stock to another tenfold increase?

That said, if you are looking for an upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception. Separately, see – Buy CSX Stock At $35 Amid Acquisition Speculation?

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10x Growth Drivers

Modular Architecture Advantage: Unlike competitors using monolithic processors, Rigetti’s chiplet approach solves quantum computing’s primary scaling challenge. The ability to maintain 99.5% fidelity, while scaling through connected modules, positions them as the leader in practical, large-scale quantum systems.
Strategic Manufacturing Partnership: The $100M commitment from Rigetti and Quanta over 5 years, plus Quanta’s additional $35M investment, provides manufacturing expertise and capital for commercialization at scale.
Government Validation: DARPA’s QBI program selection and consortium leadership demonstrate credibility and provide stable revenue streams for utility-scale quantum development by 2033.
Commercial Market Timing: As quantum computing transitions from research to commercial applications, Rigetti’s superior architecture and cloud-based services position them to capture disproportionate market share.

Risk Factors

Financial Reality: The company faces significant financial challenges, with $10.8M revenue in 2024 against $68.5M operational expenses. Q1 2025 revenue dropped 52% year-over-year to $1.47M, highlighting heavy reliance on volatile government contracts.
Valuation Risk: The company’s lofty valuations may offer little protection against downturns. Changes in market sentiment could readily spark substantial volatility. While investors value quantum stocks based on potential future growth, RGTI, for example, currently trades at around 400 times its trailing revenues, indicating a possibly inflated valuation.
Cash Burn: Unsustainable spending rate requires rapid revenue growth.
Execution Risk: Must deliver on scaling roadmap and demonstrate quantum advantage
Competition: Well-funded tech giants and alternative quantum approaches, all actively pursuing market share in the quantum computing domain.

Historical Examples of 10x Growth
NVIDIA’s AI Revolution (2016-2024)

NVIDIA serves as the most pertinent comparison for QBTS’s potential growth trajectory. Between 2016 and 2024, NVIDIA stock surged from around $8 to more than $130 (adjusted for splits), marking a 16x increase. This expansion occurred as NVIDIA evolved from a gaming graphics firm to a core component of AI infrastructure. Similarly, D-Wave may capitalize on the burgeoning quantum computing infrastructure market. Additionally, see – NVDA Stock To $200?

Biotech Breakthroughs

Moderna’s development of a COVID-19 vaccine propelled its stock from $20 to over $400 in 2020-2021, illustrating how groundbreaking applications can lead to explosive growth. D-Wave’s quantum optimization solutions could similarly disrupt industries once they gain commercial traction.

The Verdict

Rigetti represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity at quantum computing’s commercial inflection point. Their modular architecture breakthrough, combined with manufacturing partnerships and government validation, creates multiple pathways for 10x growth.

Success depends on executing the scaling roadmap, demonstrating commercial quantum advantage, and achieving revenue growth to justify massive current valuation. For risk-tolerant investors, Rigetti offers exposure to potentially transformative technology with clear competitive advantages at a critical market transition point.

Although significant risks remain, the chance for revolutionary impact across various industries warrants a premium valuation for investors with the suitable risk appetite and long-term investment perspectives. We underscore the considerable risk tied to this investment; therefore, investors should thoughtfully evaluate these risks or consider professionally managed alternatives, such as the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio with a selection of 30 stocks that has a history of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks have yielded greater returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index; experiencing less volatility, as seen in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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