Last week’s article, “Fantasy basketball breakouts, bounce-backs, stashes and glue guys for 2025-26,” was filled with rays of Son that dilated your pupils and blinded the brain with positivity and optimism.

But the duality of the universe ensures that I have some Haterade flowing through my body. And it shall all be released. I even have a guy ready to tilt the bucket so the last drops don’t just pool at the bottom.

ADP data is from NFBKC (Sept. 1 to Oct. 13).

BustsIvica Zubac (C), Los Angeles Clippers | ADP: 41.04

Zubac proved with the Clippers that he’s a starting-caliber center. Unfortunately, he didn’t play heavy minutes early on, settling in around 24 minutes per game. In 2022-23, Zubac played 28.6 mpg in 76 starts but dropped to 26.4 mpg the following season. Last season, though, the depth chart opened up (like when Moses parted the Red Sea), leading to a whopping 32.8 mpg. As a result, Zubac finished a career-high 30th in per-game fantasy value and ninth in total value. I initially had Zubac down for 32 mpg, but I think he finishes around 30 mpg, with the possibility of 28 mpg. The reasons? The Clippers acquired Brook Lopez in the offseason, and John Collins could be utilized as a small-ball center.

Mark Williams (C), Phoenix Suns | ADP: 48.8

I actually like Williams as a player, as his length and agility are impressive for a man his size. He’s only played 106 out of 246 games in three seasons, though. And the Lakers, a team desperate for a big man, traded for him, saw him and were like, “Nah, we good.” Nick Richards and Oso Ighodaro will be backing up Williams this season. Richards isn’t great, but he’s flashed at times. I like Ighodaro and could see him being a significant part of the rotation at some point. The upcoming season is pivotal for Williams, as Phoenix decided not to extend him, making this a prove-it year. If Phoenix pushes and gives him all the run, he could sustain another injury. If Phoenix manages his playing time, with no back-to-backs and such, the chance for fantasy goodies decreases.

Josh Hart (G), New York Knicks | ADP: 85.24

When Hart first arrived midseason during the 2022-23 campaign, he came off the bench and averaged 30 mpg. The following season, he started half the games and played 33.4 mpg. Last season, Hart started all 77 games and averaged a whopping 37.6 mpg. All of those seasons were with Tom Thibodeau as the head coach. Mike Brown is now the guy, and he’s been experimenting with Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt together. Hart is definitely not playing 37 mpg and may not even start.

Kyle Filipowski (C), Utah Jazz | ADP: 117.44

Many sharp fantasy hoops players have been taking Filipowski in the 10th to 11th rounds. I get it, and I kind of don’t. He’s been dealing with a back issue during the preseason, so that’s always concerning and is something that could linger. The main issue, though, is the playing time. Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen likely start at center and power forward, respectively. Utah has many options at power forward when Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Love play center. I think Utah will want to build trade value for Nurkic and Love to move them at some point. Later in the season, I could see Filipowski producing like he did at the end of last season, as Utah employed the tank, but that’s a long way down the road.

Risk-reward optionsLeBron James (F), Los Angeles Lakers | ADP 26.36

On Oct. 9, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that James will be sidelined for at least three to four weeks due to sciatica. Since that date, James’ ADP is 37, with a low of 29 and a high of 45. ESPN’s Stephania Bell describes sciatica as irritation, inflammation or compression of the sciatic nerve, which originates in the lower spine and travels through the gluteal muscles and hamstrings before branching out to the legs and feet.

When healthy, James is a top-20 player. Last season, he averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.1 treys while shooting 51% from the field and 78% from the line. But James is not starting the season healthy, and there’s been no mention of when he will be returning to action, only that he will be reevaluated. This could all be a blip, and those who scooped him up at the discount could profit well, but James will be 41 years old, and this sciatica issue seems like something that could linger all season.

LaMelo Ball (G), Charlotte Hornets | ADP: 35.56

The main bugaboos for Ball are the field goal percentage and health. When he’s on the court, Ball stuffs the stat sheet and has 10 career triple-doubles to his name. On a per-game basis, he’s a top-20 player. Back in 2021-22, when he played 75 games, Ball finished as the eighth-best player from a totals perspective. Unfortunately, he’s averaged just 35 games in the three seasons since.

Zion Williamson (F), New Orleans Pelicans | ADP: 61.28

I still remember watching Williamson’s high school highlights. It was like watching Juggernaut with Tony Stark-made jump shoes playing basketball against an eighth-grade rec team. I thought he would be the next LeBron … until I realized he couldn’t shoot. Regardless, I think what I most admire about Zion is that everyone knows he’s going left, and he still gets his. But like Ball above, health has been the issue. He missed the entire 2021-22 season due to foot surgery and has played only 20-30 games in two of the past three seasons. He played 70 two seasons ago, so cue Lloyd Christmas (“So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!”). The free-throw shooting is still an issue, and there are no treys, but the rest of the package is magnifique, especially since he’s begun contributing more defensive stats.

Tyler Herro (G), Miami Heat | ADP: 70.88

Herro had ankle surgery in September, and the timetable for return was reported as 8-12 weeks, meaning he could return somewhere between November and December. If he heals quickly and returns in mid-November, he would miss around 13 games. Herro broke out last season, averaging 23.9 points, 3.3 treys, 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 0.9 steals while shooting 47% from the field and 87% from the line. Lower-body injuries are scary for basketball players, but if he fully recovers from the surgery, he can provide quite the oomph during fantasy money time.

Darius Garland (G), Cleveland Cavaliers | ADP: 71.36

Garland underwent toe surgery in June. He has been doing light individual workouts, and it doesn’t sound like he will miss much time at the start of the season. Toe injuries are tough for quick, shifty guards like Garland, so there’s a chance he never gets back to 100%. That said, a nice discount in acquisition cost has made the risk-reward ratio enticing. In 75 games last season, Garland averaged 20.6 points, 2.8 treys, 2.9 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 47% from the field and 87% from the line.

Lauri Markkanen (F), Utah Jazz | ADP: 74.2

Since Markkanen arrived in Utah, he’s played 66, 55 and 47 games. If the SATs taught me anything, it’s that the answer to how many games he’ll play this season is d) 36 games. Markkanen has dealt with injuries while being on the S. S. Tanking Jazz, but could this be the year he finally gets traded to a contender? Utah shuttled away Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson in the offseason, so the youth movement seems to be a priority. Markkanen should crush his ADP if he’s traded, making the risk of another lost season in Utah worth it.

Paul George (F), Philadelphia 76ers | ADP: 116

George had knee surgery in the offseason. He has been playing one-on-one, so that’s a positive development. Last season was his worst in a while, as the scoring and shooting efficiency plummeted. That was his first season with the 76ers, though, and injuries may have sapped him. Just two seasons ago, George played 74 games and was a top-15 player on a per-game basis. He is 35 years old and hasn’t played 60 games in the prior four seasons, but the acquisition price is pretty good for the potential upside.

High-maintenance players

When my editor asked me to write about “high-maintenance” players, I had no clue what he meant. Did I have to scour the internet for hairstyles? Best dressed? Prima donnas? Then he said, “No, Stan — players that are not set-it-and-forget-it, but require more daily vigilance.” Oh, yeah, that makes sense. So, I will focus on those players, but I also had a little fun with the assignment.

Ja Morant (G), Memphis Grizzlies | ADP: 40.56

I did have Morant on the hairstyle list. But Morant fits Brandon’s description because he’s never played over 67 games in a season and, over the past two seasons, finished with nine and 60 games played. He’s often on the injury report, listed as questionable and hasn’t played in many back-to-back scenarios. We also have to keep an ear to pol….I censored myself because I enjoy writing for The Athletic.

Kawhi Leonard (F), Los Angeles Clippers | ADP: 45

For someone as reserved and quiet as Leonard is, there sure is a lot of drama. It’s always the quiet ones you have to watch out for. In 13 seasons, Leonard has played at least 70 games only twice. Since 2016-17, he’s missed an entire season and played at least 60 games only twice. He has been playing some back-to-backs over the years, and even notched 68 games two seasons ago, but I think we know the drill by now when it comes to Kawhi. Don’t expect trees to be planted, marketing appearances or a full slate of games in any week.

Joel Embiid (C), Philadelphia 76ers | ADP: 57.08

Embiid used to always be in contention for the top fantasy player in the game, despite playing fewer than 70 games. That’s how good he is. Unfortunately, he’s played 19 and 39 games, respectively, the past two seasons and is now 31 years old, recovering from offseason knee surgery. At least there are no misconceptions and false hopes about playing back-to-backs.

Kristaps Porzingis (C), Atlanta Hawks | ADP: 61.48

Porzingis is a unicorn and a per-game monster for fantasy. If only he could stay healthy. He hasn’t played at least 70 games since his rookie season. Over the past three seasons, he played 65, 57 and 42 games. The environment is going to be an amazing one for him in Atlanta, playing alongside Trae Young, but I think it’s likely that they manage his back-to-backs and minutes, hoping to keep him fresh for a playoff run at the end of the season.

Category killers

The field goal and free throw percentage categories are most affected by the “killers” because the volume is so immense that there is little hope to pull out from the black hole. The rest of the categories can be managed to some degree with volume, but that’s very difficult with the percentage ones.

Trae Young (G), Atlanta Hawks | ADP: 9.12

Last season, Young converted only 41.4% of his 18.1 field goal attempts, the 23rd most in the NBA. That was a career low, but he’s a 43% shooter through seven seasons, so there’s a sliver of sunshine.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (F), Milwaukee Bucks | ADP: 10.46

Antetokounmpo converted 61% of his 10.6 free throw attempts last season. The 10.6 attempts led the league by a significant margin, as Joel Embiid was second with 8.9. This is the reason Antetokounmpo is difficult for roto formats while he’s a stud in head-to-head.

James Harden (G), Los Angeles Clippers | ADP: 10.44

Harden shot 41% from the field on 16.4 attempts last season. Like Young, he’s a career 43% shooter from the field, but he has had a season in which he converted 47%.

Paolo Banchero (F), Orlando Magic | ADP: 29.48

Banchero shot 72% from the free throw line on 8.4 attempts last season, the fourth-most. He’s been at 72% or 73% in all three seasons, so it looks like Banchero is who he is. That said, Aaron Gordon is a career 69% shooter from the line but converted 81% on 3.5 attempts per game last season.

LaMelo Ball (G), Charlotte Hornets | ADP: 35.56

Ball converted 40% of his 21.3 field goal attempts last season, the second-most in the league. He’s a career 42% shooter and there’s little hope in better efficiency because he loves to huck and chuck wild shots from deep.

Brandon Miller (F), Charlotte Hornets | ADP: 48.92

Miller shot 40% on 18.2 attempts per game last season. He’s a solid three-point shooter at 36% for his career, but he really struggles finishing at the rim. The two-point field goal percentage is only 47% and he had the same issue in college. It’s so weird because he’s 6-foot-9, 201 pounds with bunny hops.

Zion Williamson (F), New Orleans Pelicans | ADP: 61.28

Williamson is a career 68% shooter from the line and he gets to the line around eight times per game, which would place him in the top 5.