Sport: NBA

What you are about to read is an attempt at figuring out what to expect from a bunch of injury-prone players for the 2025-26 fantasy basketball season. Specifically, this includes players who have missed a significant amount of games in multiple seasons and are generally considered to be injury-prone.

The high-profile players currently out with long-term injuries are not included, as there is not much to discuss in terms of fantasy basketball this season. Just don’t draft them. I’m talking about Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray, Fred VanVleet, and Damian Lillard. Even if they do return early, they will likely return with a minutes and games restriction. Until then, they will use up a valuable roster spot.

What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune in the 2025-26 season.

2025-26 Fantasy Basketball: Should You Draft These 10 Injury-Prone Players
Kawhi Leonard (SF, PF) – Los Angeles Clippers

GP (last 3 seasons): 52, 68, 37

ADP: 46

Current Status: Healthy.

Getting lost behind all the salary cap circumvention talk is that Kawhi Leonard seems to be the healthiest he’s been in a while. Dare I say, he even looks somewhat athletic. In the two preseason games so far, he’s averaged 17.5 points in 18.5 minutes. If he keeps up the performance he had in the second half of the last season, and only misses a few games here and there, he could provide quite good value at his ADP of 46. Of course, Kawhi is still an injury risk, so a trade after a good start to mitigate the risk would be appropriate, too.

Verdict: Cautious optimism.

Joel Embiid (C) – Philadelphia 76ers

GP (last 3 seasons): 66, 39, 19

ADP: 53

Current Status: Recovering from a knee injury.

Embiid has just started to scrimmage with the team and is questionable to play in Friday’s exhibition game. In theory, he could ramp up his activity to play in the season opener. In practice, does anyone trust his knees? For 82 games? Even if he stays totally healthy, he’ll likely rest a bunch of games and therefore be unreliable for fantasy basketball.

Verdict: It’s a no from me.

Jimmy Butler (SF, PF) – Golden State Warriors

GP (last 3 seasons): 64, 60, 55

ADP: 54

Current Status: Sprained ankle, but probably not a big deal.

Jimmy Butler, famously, is not too bothered about regular-season basketball. Also, he tends to randomly miss 4-5 games 4-5 times every season. These things do not make him a good fit for fantasy basketball.

Verdict: Do not draft.

Anthony Davis (PF, C) – Dallas Mavericks

GP (last 3 seasons): 54, 76, 51

ADP: 9

Current Status: Healthy.

Drafting Anthony Davis at 9 on average is a pretty ballsy move. He has been a top 5 player on a per-game basis for the past three years, but still carries a significant injury risk. The risk may be mitigated by the Mavs having a very strong big-man rotation, so Davis should be protected from low-post physicality. Still, it is hard to trust Anthony Davis to stay healthy for the whole season.

Verdict: Better to take a sure thing that early in the draft.

LaMelo Ball (PG) – Charlotte Hornets

GP (last 3 seasons): 36, 22, 47

ADP: 30

Current Status: Healthy.

LaMelo has flirted with top 10 fantasy value while healthy. “While healthy” does a lot of heavy lifting in that statement, but he does have a few things going for himself in 25-26. This is the first start of a season that LaMelo has been healthy for in a while. So he has had the whole summer to build up his strength, which he has allegedly done. Let us not forget that Stephen Curry started his NBA career with very similar ankle injuries. Especially at around pick 30, Ball has significant upside potential.

Verdict: Worth the risk.

Paul George (PF) – Philadelphia 76ers

GP (last 3 seasons): 56, 74, 71

ADP: 95

Current Status: Recovering from a knee injury.

Unlike his teammate Joel Embiid, Paul George is still not able to play with the team. Turns out 15 years of NBA basketball might ravage your body. When healthy, he is still extremely skilled, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to acquire him. More of a Nic Batum than Jalen Williams, if you will. More of a 1 Michelin star than 3.

Verdict: Wait and see if he gets going at some point.

Ja Morant (PG) – Memphis Grizzlies

GP (last 3 seasons): 61, 9, 50

ADP: 38

Current Status: Out with an ankle injury but expected to play in the season opener.

For the past two years, Morant has been held back by injuries and… other reasons. He received MVP votes in the two seasons before that. Going into this one, there is some reason for optimism. The new head coach has put together a more Morant-friendly offense, which can be seen from the box scores from the end of the last season. Also, the Grizzlies may just be a worse team than in the previous years, which may not sound great, but may give Morant a bigger opening to go all out.

Verdict: 38 seems about right in a draft.

Zion Williamson (SF, PF) – New Orleans Pelicans

GP (last 3 seasons): 29, 70, 30

ADP: 39

Current Status: Healthy.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice… won’t get fooled again. How about fool me seven times? We may just be getting fooled for the seventh time, as Zion is looking great in the preseason games. An ADP of 39 would require a career year, both stats and games played-wise, to be worthwhile. He does look very slim, and hopefully that will put a lesser burden on his body, but super-explosive players get injuries anyway. Not like Blake Griffin was a big fatso.

Verdict: Are you expecting a career year? I just don’t see it.

Chet Holmgren (PF, C) – Oklahoma City Thunder

GP (last 3 seasons): 0, 82, 32

ADP: 30

Current Status: Nursing a sore shoulder.

Speaking of big fatsos, here’s Chet Holmgren. Despite playing only 32 games last season, he played them where they counted the most – the playoffs. After returning from a long-term pelvic injury last season, he still missed single games with injuries to his calf, ankle, lower leg, hip, and back, as well as for rest. When healthy, in his (second) rookie year, he was able to keep pace with Victor Wembanyama for a while, which is a sign of considerable upside. Holmgren is one of the best shot blockers in the league. Having said that, OKC will still likely prioritise the playoffs and take no chances with Chet, so expect a lot of missed regular-season games.

Verdict: Too injury-prone.

Lauri Markkanen (SF, PF) – Utah Jazz

GP (last 3 seasons): 66, 55, 47

ADP: 60

Current Status: Recovering from a wrist injury.

Markkanen averages 56 games per season for his 8-year NBA career. Now, last year’s number of 47 might not be very accurate to his true status, as the Jazz very clearly held Markkanen and many others back to get a better draft pick. Entering this season, most of the other veteran players are gone, leaving Lauri as the only player in his prime on the roster. From a fantasy perspective, that can only be a good thing – he has all the space in the world to showcase his skills while not endangering the team’s plans for a high draft pick. Getting traded will likely lower his value, but whether a trade will happen is still up in the air.

Verdict: Steal at 60.

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