Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The big change today was ICBC launching a 4.25% one year fixed mortgage rate, a new market low. Also, WBS, First Credit Union, and China Construction Bank all changed rates too. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank changed rates down today and they no longer have any 4% rates for terms of 4 years or less. General Finance changed as well. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STEADY GROWTH IN BUYERS MARKET
Real estate agencies estimated to have earned $476 mln in residential sales commissions in Q3 this year. This is down from the almost $500 mln earned in Q2-2025, but up nearly 8% above Q3-2024. The latest results come in a clear buyers market with transactions up even if house prices are not. Volume is the key to agent earnings, not price.

SLOWLY BUT SURELY, BANKS TRY TO SHIFT AWAY FROM BROKERS
Mortgage brokers are not feeling the love from Westpac who has moved to ditch trail commission on home loans, even after consultation with the adviser groups. Westpac has now joined ANZ and ASB who ‘never’ had trail commissions (but all still pay upfront commissions). BNZ and Kiwibank still pay trails. Rankling the brokers is that Westpac partnered with Dosh earlier this year to offer home loans without financial advice and a loyalty cashback reward. Westpac is burnishing the transition with a 0.30% top-up commission payment which will apply to new loans drawn between today and 31 May 2026, effectively increasing the total up front commission to 0.90% during this period.

A PUBLIC WARNING
The FMA has warned HP Capital Limited, trading as Finbase, for serious breaches of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 and related regulations. Essentially, this warning is about how Finbase tried to promote its wholesale offers using retail language and techniques in its advertising and promotion. Details here.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.3% in its Wednesday session so far. That puts it -1.9% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.9% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed today so far. Kathmandu, Scales, Serko, and Mainfreight lead the gainers, while Meridian, Fletcher, Vital Healthcare, and Mainfreight are the main decliners

MILK POWDER PRICES DIP AGAIN
There was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so in NZD both commodities were up about +1%.

AFFIRMED
S&P today affirmed their NZ sovereign credit rate at AA+, Stable.

STILL IN MILD DEFLATION, OFFICIALLY
China said its consumer prices stayed in mild deflation, dow running -0.3% in September from a year ago. Beef and lamb prices are rising now, but milk prices are still falling.

MODERATE DEFLATION EASES
Meanwhile Chinese producer prices, already on moderate deflation, eased back to a -2.3% decrease, from August’s -2.9%.

MOVING BACK TO TREND GROWTH
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for Q3-2025 suggests that the Australian economy is only expanding at the long term trend pace, but the pace is picking up marginally. They expect 2025 to come in below trend, but 2026 to edge up to trend levels.

SWAP RATES HOLD, LONGER RATES DROP
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed today at the short end but lower for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bps on Tuesday at 2.55%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.08%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday’s rate down -1 bp to 4.09%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.02%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HOLD
The local equity market is now up only +0.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down up +1.0%. Hong Kong is up +1.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.2% from yesterday. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with a late dip ending down -0.2% for the day.

OIL SLIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just over US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just und US$62.50/bbl. (Apart from the brief April 2025 dip, it is low back to February 2021 levels.)

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few more trades today and the price has held at $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES TO NEW HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$41 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4181/oz and new highs. Silver is lower at just over US$52/oz.

NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, still at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at just under 61.8.

BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$112,810 and down another -1.3% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.9%.

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