The lightweight battle between Canadian MMA contender Kyle Nelson and American MMA star Matt Frevola will be the first match of the UFC Vancouver main card on Oct. 18, which will take place inside Rogers Arena in Canada.

Despite his two-fight losing streak, Frevola still heads into the match as the slight betting favorite with -125 UFC odds. Nelson, on the other hand, who’s also coming off a loss, is the slight betting underdog with +105 odds.

UFC Vancouver: Nelson vs. Frevola Odds

Kyle Nelson: +105
Matt Frevola: -125

UFC Vancouver: Nelson vs. Frevola: Prediction

I predict a unanimous decision win for Nelson against Frevola because he’s more technical among the two and has better cardio. Nelson also has a more well-rounded approach, as he can comfortably fight on the feet and on the mat.

Nelson also adjusts his fight plan on the fly once he gets a read on his opponent’s tendencies and lapses. The only problem with the Canadian contender is the different weight cut he’s been doing, having fought in both the featherweight and lightweight divisions.

Meanwhile, Frevola likes to take the fight against his opponents with forward pressure. However, he tends to leave himself open to counters because he gets wild in exchanges. Additionally, his stamina is not built for a high-paced match, which gasses him out in late rounds.

This more well-rounded arsenal and cardio will be the keys to victory for Nelson, as he’ll give Frevola different looks throughout the fight. This is why I see him cruising to a comfortable decision victory via the judges’ scorecards.

Kyle Nelson’s Recent Fight Results

Nelson has been with the UFC since 2018, but has only fought 10 times. He recorded four wins, five losses, and one draw in these fights. The Canadian scored victories against Polo Reyes, Blake Bilder, Fernando Padilla, and Bill Algeo.

His losses were from Diego Ferreira, Matt Sayles, Billy Quarantillo, Jai Herbert, and, most recently, to Steve Garcia last September 2024. His lone draw result was when he fought Dooho Choi in February 2023.

Matt Frevola’s Recent Fight Results

Frevola was a product of Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, and despite losing his fight to Reyes, he was still able to earn a UFC contract. His octagon debut was a draw with Lando Vannata.

Since then, he has competed in nine bouts in the promotion, recording five wins and four losses. Frevola’s victories were against Jalin Turner, Luis Pena, Genaro Valdez, Ottman Azaitar, and Drew Dober, while his defeats were from Arman Tsarukyan, Terrance McKinney, Benoit Saint Denis, and Fares Ziam.

UFC Vancouver: Nelson vs. Frevola: Tale of the Tape

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