The UFC is in my home country this week as Middleweights Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen are set to square off in the main event from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada. I went over every fight on the card to give my predictions and bets, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let’s get into it.
Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 10/16/2025
Short notice replacement saves our Middleweight main event. Reinier de Ridder is a large and awkward fighter with strong grappling skills when on top and in the clinch, and a unique striking style featuring a step-in knee that has proven difficult for opponents to deal with. Brendan Allen is a dangerous grappler with a good submission game especially off the back and solid striking, which he used to beat Marvin Vettori at UFC 318.
I lean towards RDR here, as the combination of size and pressure he brings will wear Allen down over five rounds, especially given his short notice.
Prediction: RDR by 4th Round TKO
Welterweight finishers go head-to-head in this co-main event. Kevin Holland is a long striker with a slick submission game, although his wrestling has often cost him, and he looked slow against Daniel Rodriguez in his last outing. Mike Malott is a well-rounded fighter with striking that he used to knockout Charles Radtke and grappling that has seen him submit two UFC opponents as well.
I’m taking Malott to get a decision here, as his advantage on the ground is obvious, while Holland is difficult to submit at this weight. I also don’t believe he is far behind in the striking, based on recent outings from Holland.
Prediction/Bet: Malott by Decision
Dangerous Bantamweight strikers square off in this one. Marlon Vera is a durable finisher who returns after over a year away here since losing his last two fights to Sean O’Malley and Deiveson Figueiredo. Aiemann Zahabi is a slick boxer on a nice win streak here, including a wild comeback against Jose Aldo the last time we saw him.
I’m going with Vera as the underdog here, as he is the younger fighter who has all the finishing upside, while also being able to do enough damage to have moments that could edge him a decision. With that, Marlon Vera is this week’s Underdog Best Bet of the Week.
Prediction: Vera by 3rd Round TKO Bet: Vera MoneyLine
These top-ranked Flyweights collide in this pivotal clash. Manon Fiorot is a skilled kickboxer who is very strong for her division, which is evident in her grappling, which she effectively utilized despite losing to Valentina Shevchenko in her last fight. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a high-paced grappler with good wrestling and a great ability to do damage or hunt submissions when on top, although when her wrestling is stuffed, she can be outstruck.
I like Fiorot to get a decision in this one as she is a tough matchup for Jasudavicius with her strong defensive grappling, cardio, and skillful striking.
Prediction: Fiorot by Decision
Experienced Bantamweights square off in need of a win here. Cody Gibson is a well-rounded fighter with a long reach, which he utilizes effectively in striking, and he has made notable improvements to his submission game since his first UFC run. Aoriqileng is a solid boxer with decent wrestling skills, although he lacks much finishing ability or output.
I’ll take Gibson as he has a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes, while also being the larger fighter.
Prediction: Gibson by Decision
Kicking off the main card is a banger at Lightweight. Kyle Nelson is a hard-hitting brawler who comes up in weight here after spending his last five fights at Featherweight. Matt Frevola is an all-action fighter with dangerous striking and a strong wrestling base, although his defence and durability have been issues.
I lean towards Frevola as I see him being the much higher volume fighter who has competed at this weight class more frequently and faced tougher competition, although his durability is a concern.
Prediction: Frevola by 3rd Round TKO
High-volume strikers collide in this fantastic matchup at Bantamweight. Charles Jourdain is a high-paced kickboxer with a nice guillotine choke as well, which he used to win his debut at this weight over Victor Henry. Davey Grant is a nearly forty-year-old veteran who is coming off a great outing against Da’Mon Blackshear, where he outstruck the much younger opponent and showed he still has fantastic cardio.
I’m going with Jourdain in this one, as he is the much younger fighter who has more tools to finish the fight, especially with his grappling, while also being a more powerful striker.
Prediction: Jourdain by Decision
Intriguing matchup of Flyweights looking to get back on track. Bruno Silva is a tough striker with good hands, although when he doesn’t land the knockout, he can get overwhelmed with volume. Hyun Sung Park is a strong grappler with a slick submission game, although he was dominated on the feet by Tatsuro Taira in their short-notice matchup.
I’ll take Park here as he is the much better grappler, and Silva does not keep a high enough output to win a decision here, making his only path to victory a knockout in my mind.
Prediction: Park by 2nd Round Submission
Middleweight strikers looking to bounce back from tough losses are matched up here. Danny Barlow moves up in weight here after a first-round knockout loss to Sam Patterson, although he had previously proven to be a powerful striker whose ground game I have questions about. Djorden Santos is a solid kickboxer coming off a questionable decision loss to Ozzy Diaz.
I lean towards Barlow in this one, as he is the more dangerous and higher-output fighter who is now not cutting as much weight.
Prediction: Barlow by 3rd Round TKO
Hard-hitting Lightweights go head-to-head in this prelim matchup. Kyle Prepolec returned to the UFC against Benoit Saint-Denis earlier this year in a tough loss, although he remains a solid striker as he landed some good shots on BSD on the feet. Drew Dober is a veteran who has been known for his chin and power, although in recent years, his durability has seemingly faded, which is a concern with his lack of defense.
These odds seem very wide for what could be a close fight, as both men are solid strikers, and although Dober is more tested, he has now been finished in three of his last four fights, causing major concerns, especially at a price like this. Still, I lean Dober as my pick, but the value is likely on Prepolec.
Prediction: Dober by 3rd Round TKO
Strawweights square off here, looking to get back in the win column. Stephanie Luciano is a fast kickboxer coming off her first UFC loss, where Sam Hughes was able to control her on the ground for the last two rounds. Ravena Oliveira is a finisher who has ended all seven of her professional wins inside the distance, having shown a well-rounded skillset, although not having faced the toughest opposition.
I’m going with Luciano here as she is a much better striker who is good enough to defend against any grappling of Oliveira.
Prediction: Luciano by Decision
A fun clash of Middleweight strikers here, previously scheduled several weeks ago. Azamat Bekoev is a devastating finisher who has won his first two UFC fights by first-round knockout, showcasing his serious power and demonstrating that his grappling skills are legitimate as well. Yousri Belgaroui is a tall and skilled kickboxer who trains with Alex Pereira and makes his debut here, despite not earning a contract on several Dana White’s Contender Series opportunities, where he won and lost one.
I’ll pick Bekoev here, as he is the more dangerous and well-rounded fighter with UFC experience.
Prediction: Bekoev by Decision
Matchup of grapplers at Bantamweight kicks off the card here. Melissa Croden makes her UFC debut here with a grinding style using a strong clinch game to wear down opponents. Tainara Lisboa is a finisher with a kickboxing background, although she has leaned more on her submission skills in her MMA career.
I lean towards Croden here, as she excels at closing range and forcing grappling, which has given Lisboa trouble throughout her career.
Prediction: Croden by Decision