ASX resets record high as unemployment jump revives rate cut bets — as it happened

14h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 5:38amMarket snapshotASX 200: +0.8% at 9,068 pointsAustralian dollar: -0.3% to 64.91 US centsS&P 500: +0.4% to 6,671 pointsNasdaq: +0.7% to 22,670 pointsFTSE: -0.3% to 9,425 pointsEuroStoxx: +0.7% to 469 pointsSpot gold: FLAT at $US4,210/ounceBrent crude: +0.6% at $US62.28/barrelIron ore: -0.5% to $US104.81/tonneBitcoin: +0.3% to $US111,208

Prices current around 4:45pm AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

14h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 6:00am

That’s it from the ABC biz team!

Alright, it’s time to wrap up for the day.

I really only have one thing to say:

Our day saw the Australian share market convincingly smash past a record high on news tens of thousands of Australians were unable to find work in September.

We know the logic of this (more interest rate cuts expected) … but still.

Oh, and there’s gold and silver … and AI. The unstoppable forces in our universe … or so it seems.

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14h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 5:35am

Bank branches disappearing

The number of bank branches nationwide, according to financial comparison website Canstar, fell by 155 over the past financial year, and by 1,564 over five years.

It puts the reduction in bank services down to banking increasingly going “digital”.

Canstar’s analysis of APRA’s Points of Presence data for 30 June 2025, released today, shows the number of bank ATMs has also dropped by 333 in the last financial year and 4,478 compared to the end of the 2020 financial year.

15h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 5:18amASX 200 closes at record high

The S&P/ASX 200 closed up 77 points or 0.86% to finish at 9,068.40 points.

The previous closing high was 8,990, set on August 21.

AMP was among the top performing stocks, up 8.5%.

In the materials sector, gold miners surged as the price of bullion topped $US4,200 an ounce.

Genesis Mineral surged 7.5%.

Over the past five days, the index has gained 1.10% and is currently 0.45% above its previous closing high.

15h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 4:50am

Jobless rate rise ‘alarming’, ACOSS says

Australia’s rising unemployment rate is alarming and placing thousands more households into financial stress, the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) said.

“Between August and September, a further 34,000 people have become unemployed,” ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie said.

“This means more people will be forced to rely on the $401 per week Jobseeker Payment, which is well below the poverty line.”

ACOSS said since the RBA began increasing interest rates in September 2022, 174,000 more people had become unemployed.

It said there were now two people unemployed for every job vacancy.

“Keeping interest rates high is hammering jobs and livelihoods,” Dr Goldie said.

15h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 4:30am

Bond buying spree?

Ugly jobs figures have caused the biggest one-day decline in bond yields since early August.

Money markets are now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of the RBA delivering its fourth interest rate cut this year, which would take the cash rate to 3.35 per cent.

The “risk-free” 10-year bond rate has also fallen 5 basis points to 4.17%.

Bond prices move inversely to their yields.

16h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 4:05am

Demand for workers is easing: CBA

I hope you’re not getting sick of blog posts on the jobs figures.

There’s been a wave of economists and analysts keen to contribute to the national conversation about unemployment.

I’ll add this one from the CBA, though, because it has a slightly different take on the official data, compared to others.

Here’s the take from the CBA:

“Slowing hiring demand is beginning to translate into some signs of spare capacity,” the bank said.

“The underemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.9% after hitting a 34-year low of 5.7% in August.

“The underutilisation rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to a 13-month high of 10.4%.

“Australia’s youth unemployment rate for 15–24-year-olds lifted to 10.5% in September, the highest level since November 2021.

“There is debate whether stickier inflation or slower employment is temporary.

“Until this is resolved, we expect the cautious nature of the RBA cutting cycle to date to remain in place.”

16h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 3:51am

Seek versus ABS

A quick look at Seek.com shows me 179,332 new jobs in Australia have been added. I don’t since when, but this number, on just one website, suggests there are plenty of available jobs out there. It’s definitely higher than the 20,000 new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate steady. How should I reconcile these numbers?

– Jonathan

Thanks for the post, Jonathan.

The simple answer, I think, is that you can’t reconcile them.

The ABS numbers are based on survey data.

The seek numbers are based on the website’s private collection of numbers without, as you acknowledge, a timeframe.

Recruiters are though, generally, and I must add in my experience, the last to point to a downturn in the jobs market.

17h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 3:30am

Australia G20 Statement

Here is Australia’s statement to the meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors — Washington DC.

“Thanks to the Chair and our hosts for the opportunity to help set the scene before I hand over to Governor Bullock.”

“Each time we gather, it seems we are dealing with a new source or a new consequence of global volatility and uncertainty.

“A fourth shock in 15 years but, even within that, shifting emphases and risks.

“In the last week alone we’ve seen a welcome de-escalation in the Middle East, at the same time as we’ve seen trade tensions escalate across the Pacific.

“No wonder the global economic uncertainty index has risen two-thirds in 12 months at the same time as the gold price has spiked 50 per cent.

“In this environment, we need a sharper focus on capital flows.

“Global foreign direct investment fell again last year for the second year in a row and this should concern us all.

“Let’s focus this G20 on three pieces of work to help turn this around:

One, domestic reforms to wind back unnecessary regulation, and make our economies more productive.Two, refine our global architecture in areas like sustainable finance and multinational tax to give private capital the confidence to commit across borders.And three, strengthen multilateral institutions that help us resolve differences through cooperation, not conflict.”

“If we get this right we can do better than avoid downside risks and make a meaningful difference to capital flows and economic growth around the world,” the statement read.

17h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 3:15am

Powers proposed to tackle ‘high-risk’ offerings

Minister for Home Affairs, Mr Tony Burke, will seek to introduce a new power enabling the AUSTRAC CEO to restrict or prohibit certain high-risk products, services, or delivery channels.

The amendment, the government says, would give the AUSTRAC CEO additional options to reduce money laundering risks associated with high-risk products.

“We’re still seeing an unacceptable risk of money laundering across some channels,” AUSTRAC CEO Thomas said.

“Having a power like this enables the CEO to adapt to the evolving risk environment in more responsive ways.

“For example, crypto transactions are becoming integrated into money laundering methodologies and crypto ATMs present even more risks due to the ability to turn cash into digital currency that can be sent instantly and virtually anonymously across the globe.”

The majority of high-value crypto ATM transactions have been directly associated with scams and money mules, with large volumes of money going to wallets in high-risk jurisdictions.

More details about the proposed amendments will become available in due course.

17h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 3:00am

Economists on the same page regarding jobs and interest rates

Today’s jobs figures were weaker than the market expected and showed that what had only appeared to be a modest weakening in job creation in the past couple of months is now looking like “a more convincing slowdown,” HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham said.

Employment rose by only 15,000 jobs in September, which was a bit below the market expectation, of 20,000 jobs.

“In short, today’s print showed more signs of weakness in the jobs market and signs of loosening,” he said.

“For the RBA, today’s print was a downside surprise and, on its own, bolsters the case for the RBA to cut its cash rate further.”

17h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 2:51amTreasurer responds to rise in unemployment

The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has published a statement on the official September jobs numbers.

“Nobody wants to see the unemployment rate tick up, but unemployment is still low, participation is high, and 15,000 jobs were created last month,” Mr Chalmers said.

“With all the uncertainty coming at us from around the world, new jobs were still created, unemployment is still very low by historical standards, and participation is high, and that combination is one of our best defences against the difficult circumstances we confront.”

17h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 2:45am

Key figures from today’s official unemployment data

Today’s Bureau of Statistics unemployment numbers took many by surprise.

It’s worth taking stock now.

Here are some of the key data points.

Australia’s unemployment rate spiked to a new cycle high of 4.5% — a level last seen during Covid lockdowns.

Job growth in September was tepid, with small gains in both full-time (9,000) and part-time (6,000) positions.

The participation rate is also near its high at 67% and has been hovering around the same range in the past year.

Measures of underemployment also worsened this month. The underemployment ratio increased to 5.9% while the under-utilisation rate came out at 10.4% (from an already upwardly revised number of 10% prior).

Today’s report confirmed two clear trends, according to AMP’s My Bui.

“Jobs growth has decelerated to 1.3%yoy, with employment figures disappointing economists’ forecasts for eight out of the last twelve months.”

“The unemployment rate has broken out of the low 4s range seen throughout 2024-1H25 and is now at or slightly above the peak of the RBA forecasts.”

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 2:30am

Is 4.5% unemployment really that bad?

This property sector economist doesn’t think so…

“We shouldn’t forget it’s still a low unemployment rate in historical terms, good for wage growth and household incomes, and while unexpected, a rise to 4.5% isn’t likely to dampen the recovery we’ve seen in new and established property markets to date,” Oliver Hume chief economist, Matt Bell said.

“Preliminary results for new land sales in September quarter show that rate cuts so far have seen strong June quarter activity repeated, and we expect this to continue into the end of 2025, regardless of the November and December rate decisions.”

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 2:15am

CBA on the ‘spectacular’ Silver surge

Both gold and silver futures rose to fresh record highs this morning.

Gold rose above $US4,200/oz, while silver lifted above $US52/oz.

The surge in both precious metals since the beginning of this year has been nothing short of spectacular — gold has increased ~59%, while silver has surged ~75%.

“… the re‑ordering of safe‑haven assets since April has meant that precious metals have benefited more than the US dollar and US treasuries from risk events — like the recent escalation in US‑China trade tensions,” the bank wrote in a note.

“But the outperformance of silver, palladium and platinum relative to gold so far this year is worth noting.

“This outperformance has taken place despite central banks looking to boost gold reserves.

“Central bank buying has been structurally stronger since the Ukraine war, following the US sanctions on Russia’s US dollar reserves.

“But what separates gold from the other precious metals is that silver, platinum and palladium are used extensively in industry.

For context, industrial demand accounts for 55‑60%, 65‑70%, 60‑70% and 5‑10% of silver, platinum, palladium and gold consumption, respectively.

“The major implication from precious metal use in industry is that silver, platinum and palladium are likely to do better in a non‑recessionary environment than gold.

“And given this is broadly the outlook for the US and other major economies, the outperformance of silver, platinum and palladium relative to gold makes more sense.”

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 2:00am

RBA ‘in a very awkward position’: IG

We have seen today the unemployment rate rise unexpectedly.

Is it a blip or part of a broader trend?

Here are some thoughts from the desk of Tony Sycamore of investment firm, IG.

“Today’s soft jobs report is confirmation that the Australian labour market is quickly coming off the boil — a trend which first became notable a few months ago but certainly became more obvious after the August jobs report,” IG’s Tony Sycamore wrote. 

“The RBA have noted in recent months that some cooling within the labour force was expected.

“But nowhere within its most recent forecasts (August SoMP) did they project the unemployment rate rising to anywhere near 4.5% — not this year, not next year and not in 2027.

“Last month’s warmer-than-expected Monthly CPI indicator prompted many commentators to conclude that the end of RBA’s easing cycle was nearly complete, and subsequent RBA commentary raised the bar for additional cuts even further.

“The RBA now finds itself in a very awkward position.

“However, as we saw in the US recently, when the labour market starts to crack, sticky inflation quickly becomes yesterday’s problem as central banks move quickly and responsibly to cut rates to bring support to a weakening labour market.

“Today’s labour force report strengthens the case for the RBA to cut the cash rate by 0.25% in November 2025, bringing it to 3.35%, irrespective of the outcome of the Q3 inflation report in two weeks’ time.

“We then expect to see another 0.25% rate at its meeting in February, bringing the cash rate to 3.10% close to the estimate of neutral,” he said.

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 1:45am

Jump in unemployment ‘opens door for a rate cut’

Betashare’s chief economist, David Bassanese, has penned a note on the latest jobs numbers from the ABS.

The key takeaway: the Australian jobs market is weakening noticeably.

That’s new information.

Here’s what Mr Bassanese had to say:

“Even allowing for monthly volatility, it’s clear that the pace of employment demand has slowed in recent months.

“At the same time, underpinned by solid immigration and the desire of more local residents to find work (older Australians delaying retirement and cost-of-living pressures reducing the ability of many households to rely on one income), the supply of workers remains high. 

“What’s becoming evident is that the labour market is no longer proving able to find jobs for all that want them, leading to a further lift in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.

“This rate is in line with the Reserve Bank’s base case view of full employment in Australia, so the Bank from today could no longer characterise the labour market as ‘tight’.

And as for David Bassanese’s thinking on interest rates?

“Today’s soft labour market report should lower the bar for an interest rate cut in November – though it’s still not yet a done deal. “

“It will still be important for annual trimmed mean inflation not to lift in the September quarter CPI report on 29 October. 

“To my mind, the lift in unemployment today means a steady annual trimmed mean inflation result of 2.7% could still be enough to see the RBA cut rates next month.” 

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 1:44am

Market snapshotASX 200: +1.2% at 9,100 pointsAustralian dollar: -0.23% to 64.95 US centsS&P 500: +0.4% to 6,671 pointsNasdaq: +0.7% to 22,670 pointsFTSE: -0.3% to 9,425 pointsEuroStoxx: +0.7% to 469 pointsSpot gold: +0.5% to $US4,230/ounceBrent crude: +0.7% at $US62.36/barrelIron ore: -0.4% to $US105.30/tonneBitcoin: +0.1% to $US110,969

Prices current around 12:45pm AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 1:40am

Share market rips higher

The S&P/ASX 200 is surging higher this afternoon.

It’s up 117 points or 1.30% to 9,108.10.

Another record high reset.

18h agoThu 16 Oct 2025 at 1:31am

“RBA should be looking to bring the cash rate down … ,” KPMG says.

Australia’s unemployment rate has risen to 4.5% in September up from 4.3% in August.

An additional 15,000 Australians found work, but, on a monthly basis, all else equal, at least 20,000 new jobs need to be created to keep the unemployment rate steady.

With more entrants into the jobs market in September unable to find work, an additional 34,000 people are now unemployed.

KPMG chief economist Dr Brendan Rynne penned this note a short time ago:

“All the anecdotal evidence about job losses is now materialising in the official statistics — with an additional 34,000 people unemployed in September and the likelihood of further job losses before Christmas.”

“This softening of the labour market should be more concerning to the RBA than the short-term fluctuations associated with inflation.

“At its upcoming meeting, the RBA should be looking to bring the cash rate down to a more accommodating level to help businesses invest and encourage households to spend, which should collectively help underpin the labour market.”