Our national nightmare of having no NBA games that count will soon be over. Some people count sheep when they go to bed. I just count the number of times Cam Thomas pounds the rock. It doesn’t take more than a couple of possessions to get me snoozing. One more weekend, and thankfully only a few more Thomas possessions at night; then, the action starts on Tuesday.
In this piece, I will delve into 10 things that have intrigued me this preseason.
Will Trae Young cede usage?
The Hawks have revolved around Young on offense over the years because, well, he’s an amazing scorer and playmaker. The usage rate has been consistently in the 30% range, but it’s been declining. In 2021-22, the usage rate was 34.4%. It dipped to 32.6% the following season and has been 30% the past two campaigns. Could it dip below 30% this season?
It’s possible because head coach Quin Snyder may have Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard initiate the offense at times with Young spotting up, which would help his efficiency — he was a career-low 41% from the field last season and 34% from downtown.
Young averaged a career-high 11.6 assists per game last season. That would surely come down, but he would still be among the league leaders. The increase in efficiency, though, would be huge because of the high volume he shoots and the impact he has on the field goal percentage category. On the real-life front, Young and Atlanta won’t agree on a contract extension ahead of the season, according to league sources.
‘Where Brooklyn at?’
Shoutout to Biggie and his freestyle with Tupac when he asked, “Where Brooklyn at?” I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that he wasn’t referring to the fantasy hoops landscape, but the question remains.
Jordi Fernandez coached his butt off last season to get Brooklyn to 26 wins. But owner Joe Tsai said, “We have one [first-round] pick in 2026, and we hope to get a good pick. So, you can predict what kind of strategy we will use for this season. But we have a very young team.”
Cam Thomas is an unrestricted free agent after this season, but he has a no-trade clause after signing a one-year qualifying offer. I don’t think it’s likely that he gets traded, so that means a lot of pine time.
Michael Porter and Nic Claxton will likely be shut down toward the end of the season as well, which means Day’Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney and Danny Wolf should see significant action. As for the backcourt, the Nets have many options: Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Kobe Bufkin, Ben Saraf and Keon Johnson.
Where’s Boston at?
The situation in Brooklyn is crystal clear for the upcoming season. In Boston? Not so much. Despite not having Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford this season, the Celtics still have plenty of experienced talent on the roster: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Newly acquired Anfernee Simons is a bucket getter with potential on defense, but the depth is young and unproven, while the center position has been completely altered.
Boston has the eighth-lowest odds (+2200) to win the Eastern Conference, according to BetMGM. Washington, Charlotte and Brooklyn will likely occupy the cellar, but Toronto, Miami and possibly Indiana could move up. Will Boston want to go hard for a Play-In spot or try to get a pick in the lottery?
If Boston decides to go the lottery route, players like Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Josh Minott, Luka Garza and Hugo Gonzalez could all get plenty of time to shine.
Chris Boucher started all four preseason games. In two of those, Sam Hauser did not play at all. Boucher played alongside Hauser in the other two contests. Boucher has always intrigued due to his length and ability to shoot from downtown. In 2020-21, he averaged 1.9 blocks in 24.2 minutes per game, so he can be a force at that end of the court. Boucher has never played more than 24 minutes per game in any season, and he’s 32 years old on a one-year contract, so maybe Boston gives him run to elevate his trade value.
A Charlotte renaissance
Last season, Charlotte was 29th in offensive rating and 23rd in pace. LaMelo Ball only played 47 games while Brandon Miller suited up for only 27 contests. Ball played 22 games in 2023 and 36 games in 2022. In 2021, when Ball played 75 games, Charlotte was fifth in pace and eighth in offensive rating.
Miles Bridges shot only 43% from the field last season. In 2023, he was at 46%. With a healthy Ball in 2021, Bridges converted 49% of his field goal attempts.
Please, no one take this Ball home. We need this Ball on the court at all times.
Intriguing backup point guards
Tre Jones has not been drafted in many of the drafts I’ve participated in this offseason. He intrigues me, though.
After spending the first four years of his career with the San Antonio Spurs, Jones was traded to the Chicago Bulls last season in the De’Aaron Fox/Zach LaVine trade. Jones only played 18 games but started nine, alongside Coby White and Josh Giddey. In those starts, he averaged 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 treys while shooting 57% from the field, 57% from downtown and 80% from the line. That efficiency is unsustainable, but he does sport a career 48% field goal percentage.
It’s unlikely that Jones starts the season alongside White and Giddey, as Billy Donovan has a plethora of options: Isaac Okoro, Ayo Dosunmu and Kevin Huerter. But it’s not out of the question yet, especially since Giddey and Jones worked well last season playing together.
Regardless, Jones should still be a significant part of the rotation — his excellent field goal percentage and contributions in assists and steals are quite lovely.
Lonzo Ball missed all of 2022 and 2023 due to injuries. It will never not be funny that Ball blamed wearing BBB shoes as a culprit for many of the injuries. Prior to that, he played at least 60 games only once in five seasons, so it’s not like Ball is a bastion of health.
But he finally returned to action last season and started 14 of 35 games for the Bulls, averaging 22.2 minutes per game. There was obvious rust, and the shooting efficiency was rough, as Ball converted only 36% from the field. However, he got re-acclimated to the league and, with an entire offseason with no setbacks, the future looks bright.
So bright that the Cleveland Cavaliers traded for him. Ball is still only 27 years old, and Kenny Atkinson has been impressed, “He hasn’t disappointed. Everything that we thought we were getting, we’re getting. He’s just got a great, great feel. I’m excited to coach any NBA player, but this is a guy I’ve watched for a long time. He’s kind of the ultimate system fit.”
Cleveland will obviously be cautious with Ball and won’t play him in back-to-backs, but that’s not set in stone for the entire season.
Ty Jerome was so good off the bench for Cleveland last season in only 19.9 minutes per game. While Ball may not score as much as Jerome, the assists should be more plentiful. Some passes that Ball has made during the preseason have been magnifique.
Everything’s bigger in Texas
The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are taking this saying quite literally.
Jason Kidd intimated earlier in the summer that he wanted to use Cooper Flagg at point guard. Well, Momma Kidd must be proud because Jason did not lie, utilizing Flagg at point guard during the third and fourth preseason games. The starting lineup consisted of Flagg (6-foot-9), Klay Thompson (6-foot-5), P.J. Washington (6-foot-7), Anthony Davis (6-foot-10) and Dereck Lively (7-foot-1). I don’t think this will be the starting lineup every night, but we will see it often. The defense with that lineup could be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
D’Angelo Russell takes a hit because he will lose some playing time, while Washington sees an uptick. I wondered where the playing time would be for Washington all offseason and kept looking past the fact that Dallas signed him to a four-year, $90 million extension in the offseason. Of course, they are going to play him!
Houston also jumbo-sized their lineup during the third preseason game, going with Amen Thompson (6-foot-7), Jabari Smith (6-foot-11), Kevin Durant (6-foot-11), Alperen Sengun (6-foot-11) and Steven Adams (6-foot-11). That’s super-sized compared to Dallas’. Last season, Adams and Sengun were employed together often, but the Rockets had Fred VanVleet, not Durant. As with Dallas, I don’t think this is the nightly starting lineup for Houston, but it will likely be a lineup that is employed often. If the Rockets go big-heavy often, Reed Sheppard loses some shine.
Jokic blasphemy?
Nikola Jokic is the best player on earth from a real-life and fantasy perspective. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night, his percentages are pristine, and his defensive contributions have increased dramatically from his early seasons. Over the past five seasons, Jokic has finished as the No. 1 player on a per-game basis for fantasy in four of those campaigns — for both 8-cat and 9-cat leagues. In the one season he “missed,” Jokic was third in 9-cat and second in 8-cat.
I do have a slight … hmmm, not a concern, but more like an observation regarding Jokic, though. He averaged a career-high 36.7 minutes per game last season. In the prior four seasons, he never exceeded 34.6 minutes per game. With the acquisition of Jonas Valanciunas, I think there’s a chance Jokic gets back under 35 minutes per game. He’ll still be awesome and put up monster stats, and he will likely finish as the first or second player for fantasy.
Wembanyama is coming for the crown
If one player can knock Jokic from the Iron Throne, it’s Victor Wembanyama. Through the first 117 games of his career, Wembanyama is averaging 22.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.3 treys while shooting 46% from the field, 33% from downtown and 80% from the line.
Wembanyama added weight and has been bullying defenders in the paint during the preseason while shooting fewer treys. The shooting efficiency could skyrocket, while all the counting stats could increase. What’s scary is that we don’t know what his ceiling is, but he could break fantasy this season.
Will OKC go for 74 wins?
The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors won 73 games, surpassing the 72 wins by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Could the Oklahoma City Thunder set a new mark at 74? Last season, the Thunder won 68 games, four more than the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The team is young, has depth, possesses one of the best defenses in the league and was third in offensive rating last season, so the pieces are there. The motivation is the question. On one hand, winning another chip will be at the forefront, so managing players toward the end of the regular season would be logical. On the other hand, there’s a chance for history.
In 2014-15, the Warriors won the championship, winning 65 regular-season games. Stephen Curry played 80 games and averaged 32.7 minutes per game en route to the MVP award. Golden State went for history the following season, winning 73 games while Curry played 79 games and averaged 34.2 minutes per game, notching another MVP trophy. Golden State lost in seven games to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, so maybe that influences the calculus for OKC.
If OKC goes for history, it would be like manna falling from the heavens for fantasy managers across the land.
New York, New York, big city of dreams
After years of futility, MSG has been rocking lately as the Knicks have won 47, 50 and 51 games, respectively, over the past three seasons. They lost twice in the Eastern Conference semis before making it to the Eastern Conference finals last season, ultimately succumbing to the Indiana Pacers.
Despite the success, the organization decided to replace head coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown in the offseason. Thibodeau was known for utilizing a tight rotation and playing his guys for extended minutes.
But looking at Brown’s coaching history, he hasn’t been shy about playing his guys either. When he coached the Sacramento Kings, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis averaged just shy of 36 minutes per game. Last season, Jalen Brunson averaged 35.4 minutes per game under Thibodeau, so I’m not too worried about the playing time.
Where the unknowns lie are in the rotations and offensive scheme. Brown has started Mitchell Robinson alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, so double-big lineups could be prominent. That would likely be a detriment to Josh Hart’s playing time. In addition, the rebound numbers could decrease for Towns.
The offensive scheme is interesting because Brown is not utilizing plays; instead, he’s installing a read-and-react offense with cuts and ball movement being paramount. New York was fifth in field goal percentage last season. Could that number increase this season? Will this new offense sap some usage from Brunson but possibly increase efficiency? From a macro perspective, this type of offense would seem to benefit Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby as they are excellent cutters to the basket.
I’m fascinated to see how this offense operates and gels.