The Victorian Liberal party faces the prospect of its third leader in less than 12 months, with MPs from across the conservative and moderate factions united in frustration and disappointment with the man currently doing the job, Brad Battin.
A change of leadership is not a fait accompli, but MPs from both sides of the factional divide now believe it is a matter of when — not if — after a shadow cabinet reshuffle last weekend left egos bruised.
Even if a leadership spill does not materialise the Victorian Liberal Party has once again spent the week talking about themselves.
“We’re not really talking about this shit again, are we?” one senior MP lamented.
Brad Battin rose to the leadership in December last year, and has campaigned heavily on crime. (ABC News)
Despite the polls suggesting otherwise, there is belief among some Liberals that the Coalition can topple Labor next year given the swathe of issues facing Premier Jacinta Allan, including record crime levels, soaring state debt and taxes, and the fact Labor is gunning for an unprecedented fourth term.
Labor MPs and strategists are nervous about the premier and government’s performance, with crime front of mind.
“It doesn’t matter who the leader is, if we’re not united, we have no chance,” the Liberal MP said.
But right now, the party room is divided. again. It’s been a long time since it was really unified.
The first term MP tipped for top job
Newly promoted Shadow Treasurer Jess Wilson is put forward as the woman most likely to succeed Mr Battin.
The first-term Kew MP threw her hat in the ring in December when John Pesutto was ousted but has not declared she wants the leadership in this latest skirmish.
Jess Wilson nominated for the Liberal leadership in December last year, but was unsuccessful. (AAP Image: Joel Carrett)
On Monday, days after he announced his refreshed frontbench, Mr Battin told reporters that not all MPs he’d tried to call after the reshuffle had returned his phone calls.
“Some might be busy, they might have had a Sunday they weren’t available for a call,” Mr Battin explained.
It is hardly a sign he has strong authority in his party room.
The polls are deeply problematic for Mr Battin, especially in a party that changes leaders frequently.
“I’m not even worried about polls,” Mr Battin told ABC Radio Melbourne on Friday.
“If you look at the TV news and you see someone stabbed on the streets and as the leader of the Opposition, if I’m worried about polls then my mind is in the wrong spot.”
When Mr Battin rolled Mr Pesutto just after Christmas, the former leader had the Coalition in a competitive position to win the 2026 state election, polling showed.
Since that Christmas coup, Mr Battin has struggled to make further inroads against the Labor government, with published polling showing the Coalition’s standing with voters going backwards.
Polling shows Labor growing its narrow lead
A Redbridge poll published in the Australian Financial Review on Friday showed Labor had increased its lead from 51-49 two-party preferred to 52-48, while polling by Resolve for The Age earlier this week showed support for the Coalition continuing to wane.
Even with an election winning lead, Ms Allan’s personal popularity is low according to the Resolve poll.
Premier Jacinta Allan has seen her popularity drop in polling. (ABC News)
Which is why Liberal MPs are despairing at the party’s continued malaise despite the heightened public anxiety about crime, the issue Mr Battin has spent nearly all his political energy on.
MPs, including shadow ministers, say every effort has been given to make Mr Battin’s leadership work but have been let down by poor decision making.
Liberals privately say that voters urge them to be a credible alternative because they’re fed up with the government, but they will not support the current Opposition because of its focus on internal fights and culture wars.
These internal problems — including the protracted factional, personal and legal fight between Mr Pesutto and MP Moira Deeming — have become a regular joke in satirical news sites, such as the Betoota Advocate.Â
Former leader John Pesutto was ousted in December following a high-profile defamation case. (ABC News: Danielle Bonica )
The frustration with Mr Battin has been brewing but the reshuffle has been the final straw for some MPs who are angry they, or their allies, weren’t given what they wanted in the carve up.
Liberal MPs the ABC has spoken with are disappointed to be once again discussing the political mortality of the party’s leader, but many believe the party needs yet another change in order to be a chance to defeat the incumbent Labor government.
The latest round of leadership chatter follows a familiar pattern for the Victorian Liberals in recent years who tend to confront poor polling and personal and factional animosity with leadership plotting.
After just four years in government since 1999, the Liberals appear to be suffering from institutionalised opposition where short term career advancement is put ahead of the mission of winning government
“People need to focus on Labor,” one MP frustrated with yet another round of leadership speculation said.
Another MP implored his colleagues to drop the egos and work together.
This all occurred in the week where brazen, confronting crimes dominated the news.
Premier Allan has a raft of problems to confront, but also as a government it has plenty of positives to lean on including opening the Metro and West Gate Tunnels before the end of the year.
Labor can also rely on its political opponents being focused on themselves and the very real prospect of yet another Liberal leadership spill.