The International Monetary Fund last week announced somewhat lower growth forecasts for the Greek economy than those of the government. It predicts a rate of 2% for this year and 2026, while the government in the draft budget sets the bar at 2.2% for this year and 2.4% for 2026. In general, a slight landing around the 2% range is discernible.
The main issue is whether this 2% or a little higher will suffice for Greece to achieve the goal of convergence with the EU; whether these growth rates, especially after the Recovery Fund expires, with the peak of relevant investments, indicate a momentum for the Greek economy in the medium and long term or not. The big question, therefore is: What will happen after 2027?
A key point economists note to Kathimerini is that the Greek production model has not yet changed enough to allow the country to converge with the EU and, all the more so, to be a part of the next great wave of growth, which Athens University Professor Emeritus Panagiotis Petrakis places in 2040.
In reality, the projections on potential growth of the local economy are anything but encouraging, with the IMF predicting a growth rate of just 1.6% in 2030.